Mastodawn

Abdiel Dec 9, 2023

Donald Trump, American Dictator

Nothing is ever inevitable. But every political analysis needs to start from the recognition that there is an eminently plausible – and fairly straightforward path – from here to autocratic rule.

New piece – A deep dive into the “dictatorship” debate:

🧵1/

https://thomaszimmer.substack.com/p/donald-trump-american-dictator

Donald Trump, American Dictator

Nothing is ever inevitable. But every political analysis needs to start from the recognition that there is an eminently plausible - and fairly straightforward - path from here to autocratic rule

Democracy Americana

Thomas Zimmer Dec 8, 2023

The year 2023 ends with a flurry of pieces in leading mainstream outlets emphasizing the stark reality of what a Trump victory in the next presidential election might mean for the country. Among those, Robert Kagan’s “A Trump dictatorship is increasingly inevitable” stood out. 2/

Thomas Zimmer Dec 8, 2023

This warning is not coming from the Left. Kagan is an immensely influential Never Trump Ex-Republican interventionist hawk – and his piece might emerge as the central reference point and rallying cry in the democratic coalition’s defense against Trumpism. But is he right? 3/

Thomas Zimmer Dec 8, 2023

Kagan sees the United States on a trajectory towards a Trump dictatorship. That doesn’t mean we can’t change course – he explicitly rejects the idea of inevitability (the headline is stupid). But unless we do change course, Kagan is convinced that’s where we will end up. 4/

Thomas Zimmer Dec 8, 2023

Until now, the term “dictatorship” had not figured prominently in the mainstream discourse. It evokes the greatest monsters and horrors of history. Now Trump himself is gleefully adopting the label.

Donald Trump, American dictator. Is the situation really *that* dire? 5/

Thomas Zimmer Dec 8, 2023

The reasonable case against using the term “dictatorship” is that Trump America will be closer to Orbán Hungary than to Putin Russia. But let’s not forget that all of those concepts represent approximations of realities, and not only are their definitions fluid, reality itself is evolving. 6/

Thomas Zimmer Dec 8, 2023

America is unlikely to go from democracy to dictatorship on the day of Trump’s inauguration in January 2025 – that’s usually not how that works, and it’s not what Kagan argues. But what about a year into Trump’s second reign? Two years? 7/

Thomas Zimmer Dec 8, 2023

Let’s not get bogged down in labeling fights. The question is whether or not terms and concepts help us get the diagnosis right. On substance, I find it hard to identify any major issues with what Kagan outlines as a *plausible* (not inevitable!) path towards authoritarianism. 8/

Thomas Zimmer Dec 8, 2023

Not every aspect of Kagan’s diagnosis is convincing. He is rather dismissive of the role blue states might play, and of the fact that an anti-MAGA majority has emerged almost every election cycle since 2016; his assessment of the military as all in on Trump seems off. 9/

Thomas Zimmer Dec 8, 2023

Then again, it is going to be a close election; the fact that we even have to seriously discuss whether or not the military would help or hinder Trump suppress protests is extremely worrisome; even if blue states manage to resist, the country would completely fall apart. 10/

Thomas Zimmer Dec 8, 2023

Crucially, Kagan gets the big stuff mostly right: His essay stands out for the complete lack of “both sides” obfuscation. Kagan does not waste time or energy on indulging in false equivalencies or lamentations over polarization. His focus is on the radicalization of the Right. 11/

Thomas Zimmer Dec 8, 2023

Perhaps most importantly, Kagan understands how the Right is giving itself permission to radicalize, to escalate, to embrace authoritarianism. He is alert to the dangerous combination of an extreme demonization of the political opponent and an entrenched siege mentality. 12/

Thomas Zimmer Dec 8, 2023

In what he calls a “new McCarthyism,” the permission structure that governs rightwing politics emerges: It states that “Real Americans” are constantly being victimized, made to suffer under the yoke of crazy leftist politics, besieged by “Un-American” forces of leftism. 13/

Thomas Zimmer Dec 8, 2023

In the minds of conservatives, they are never the aggressors, always the ones under assault. Building up this supposedly totalitarian, violent threat from the “Left” allows them to justify their actions within the long-established framework of conservative self-victimization. 14/

Thomas Zimmer Dec 8, 2023

It permitted them to support Donald Trump in the first place; it remained fully intact even after January 6; it doesn’t allow for lines that can’t be crossed. And there is no reason why it shouldn’t be able to justify the erection of dictatorial rule – as a patriotic act to defend “real America.” 15/

Thomas Zimmer Dec 8, 2023

Trump’s victory is not preordained, America is not destined to sink into authoritarianism. I agree we must not surrender to fatalism. But the defense of democracy must be based on an unflinching diagnosis of where we are and how acute the threat is – or it will fail. 16/

Thomas Zimmer Dec 8, 2023

The Biden-led anti-MAGA coalition has brought together groups and people from a wide ideological spectrum, with vastly different ideas of what needs to be done to prevent this dark autocratic future that fall along a spectrum from mere restauration to proper transformation. 17/

Thomas Zimmer Dec 8, 2023

Is the call to defend democracy just a fig leaf behind which a coalition of restoration is determined to merely restore the pre-Trump “normal”? Or is the resistance to Trumpism tied to a transformative vision that could actually move us beyond the status quo ante? 18/

Thomas Zimmer Dec 8, 2023

Kagan does not weigh in on this question. But if his diagnosis is correct, the answer can’t possibly be to merely restore the deeply deficient pre-2016 type of “liberal” democracy, to just turn the clock back to a situation that resulted in Trump’s rise in the first place. 19/

Thomas Zimmer Dec 8, 2023

If the danger is truly as great as Robert Kagan says, we need to look for a response that is commensurate with such an immense threat – one that propels America forward and transforms it into something closer to the egalitarian democracy it never has been yet.

More here: https://thomaszimmer.substack.com/p/donald-trump-american-dictator

Donald Trump, American Dictator

Nothing is ever inevitable. But every political analysis needs to start from the recognition that there is an eminently plausible - and fairly straightforward - path from here to autocratic rule

Democracy Americana

Melanie Sill Dec 8, 2023

@tzimmer_history Kagan's piece didn't offer much about how to respond, and most of the alarm pieces in major media also don't take the next step to report with equal rigor on what is being done and can be done. Also missing is much reporting on constitutional precedents and principles, and on people working in support of democracy. In this way the journalism on Trump is one sided, all emanating from his agenda.

Ariadne Dec 8, 2023

@tzimmer_history There is no "if" about it. Trump is every bit the great danger Kagan, and Cheney, J. Michael Luttig, and other anti-Trump Republicans say he is. To say nothing of what the rest of us think.

It seems your post does not have a link to Kagan's piece in the #WashingtonPost. Here is a non-paywall link to the article -
https://archive.ph/Jzwiq

(and here is a link to what Luttig and Tribe wrote in The Atlantic back in August
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/08/donald-trump-constitutionally-prohibited-presidency/675048/ )

The #mainstream #media continue to treat #Trump as if he is a viable candidate. Sadly it is all about the #MSM earnings from reporting on Trump, not about the imminent end of the American experiment. #USPolitics #Fascism #US #Democracy

Ariadne Dec 8, 2023

@tzimmer_history What Kagan says here is absolutely spot on. I have lots of personal, first-hand knowledge about the situation in #Hungary under #Orbán and Kagan is spot-on on this point. A similar situation is developing with the #AfD in #Germany. And look at what's happened in the #Netherlands. Kagan writes - "The Trump dictatorship will not be a communist tyranny, where almost everyone feels the oppression and has their lives shaped by it. In conservative, anti-liberal tyrannies, ordinary people face all kinds of limitations on their freedoms, but it is a problem for them only to the degree that they value those freedoms, and many people do not. The fact that this tyranny will depend entirely on the whims of one man will mean that Americans’ rights will be conditional rather than guaranteed. But if most Americans can go about their daily business, they might not care, just as many #Russians and #Hungarians do not care."

robert daniel pickard Dec 9, 2023

@tzimmer_history great essay

Robert Link Dec 8, 2023

@tzimmer_history Amen!!! Thanks for the encouragrment!!! Keep the faith!!!

Zhi Zhu 🕸️Dec 8, 2023

@tzimmer_history

Reminds me of this 2018 essay based on a Twitter thread:
https://while-you-were-sleeping.com/2018/06/18/little-by-little-bit-by-bit-unaware-they-become-monsters/

THE NAZI’S THOUGHT THEY WERE THE VICTIMS

From Jim Wright of Stonekettle Station:
"The Nazis never saw themselves as villains.

You look at the horrifying atrocities they committed and you think they MUST have known they were the monsters.

They must have known.

But they didn't.

In fact, it was just the opposite. The Nazis thought they themselves were the VICTIMS."

#Politics #USPol #USA

Little by little, bit by bit, unaware, they become monsters.

The Nazis never saw themselves as villains. You look at the horrifying atrocities they committed and you think they MUST have known they were the monsters. They must have known. But they did…

While you were sleeping

Erin Conroy Dec 9, 2023

@tzimmer_history The Biden Administration and blue states have done essentially nothing to expel fascist fellow travelers, white supremacists, and coup sympathizers from the ranks of the police, the CBP, the FBI, and the military. That is utterly astonishing, in part because it indicates zero planning or caution. And that sets us up for an even more determined and successful coup next year.

Erin Conroy Dec 9, 2023

@tzimmer_history (Which, obviously, that have been planning continuously since the last one. So, we have one side planning to instigate violence and win, and the Biden side, not doing the equivalent advance strategic planning and maneuvering to restrain them.

It is looking very dire. There is a reason Netanyahu launches new wedge issue attacks on progressives in the US every week. And yet Biden’s team, like Anita Dunn, is helping him drive the wedge into the anti trump coalition.

Alan Hartley Dec 9, 2023

@chargrille @tzimmer_history With due respect to your credentials, I don’t think it’s clear that the Biden administration could do that without disastrous blowback. Despite the dangers, their merely supporting robust funding for the police might be the wisest move.

ClassyT Dec 9, 2023

@tzimmer_history HMM…WAKE UP AMERICA!!

Breathe Dec 9, 2023

@tzimmer_history a must read.

SteveBologna Dec 14, 2023

@tzimmer_history If you want to know who is behind the “deep state” look into the 2025 project. Study it and then tell me it’s the democrats

TransitBiker Dec 9, 2023

@tzimmer_history trump’s emails have a narrative that only he can save America from the crooked left, with escalating tone & borderline treasonous language. Claiming it’s a war against woke left, etc etc.