Donald Trump, American Dictator
Nothing is ever inevitable. But every political analysis needs to start from the recognition that there is an eminently plausible – and fairly straightforward path – from here to autocratic rule.
New piece – A deep dive into the “dictatorship” debate:
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https://thomaszimmer.substack.com/p/donald-trump-american-dictator
Donald Trump, American Dictator
Nothing is ever inevitable. But every political analysis needs to start from the recognition that there is an eminently plausible - and fairly straightforward - path from here to autocratic rule
The year 2023 ends with a flurry of pieces in leading mainstream outlets emphasizing the stark reality of what a Trump victory in the next presidential election might mean for the country. Among those, Robert Kagan’s “A Trump dictatorship is increasingly inevitable” stood out. 2/
This warning is not coming from the Left. Kagan is an immensely influential Never Trump Ex-Republican interventionist hawk – and his piece might emerge as the central reference point and rallying cry in the democratic coalition’s defense against Trumpism. But is he right? 3/
Kagan sees the United States on a trajectory towards a Trump dictatorship. That doesn’t mean we can’t change course – he explicitly rejects the idea of inevitability (the headline is stupid). But unless we do change course, Kagan is convinced that’s where we will end up. 4/
Until now, the term “dictatorship” had not figured prominently in the mainstream discourse. It evokes the greatest monsters and horrors of history. Now Trump himself is gleefully adopting the label.
Donald Trump, American dictator. Is the situation really *that* dire? 5/
The reasonable case against using the term “dictatorship” is that Trump America will be closer to Orbán Hungary than to Putin Russia. But let’s not forget that all of those concepts represent approximations of realities, and not only are their definitions fluid, reality itself is evolving. 6/
America is unlikely to go from democracy to dictatorship on the day of Trump’s inauguration in January 2025 – that’s usually not how that works, and it’s not what Kagan argues. But what about a year into Trump’s second reign? Two years? 7/
Let’s not get bogged down in labeling fights. The question is whether or not terms and concepts help us get the diagnosis right. On substance, I find it hard to identify any major issues with what Kagan outlines as a *plausible* (not inevitable!) path towards authoritarianism. 8/
Not every aspect of Kagan’s diagnosis is convincing. He is rather dismissive of the role blue states might play, and of the fact that an anti-MAGA majority has emerged almost every election cycle since 2016; his assessment of the military as all in on Trump seems off. 9/
Then again, it is going to be a close election; the fact that we even have to seriously discuss whether or not the military would help or hinder Trump suppress protests is extremely worrisome; even if blue states manage to resist, the country would completely fall apart. 10/
Crucially, Kagan gets the big stuff mostly right: His essay stands out for the complete lack of “both sides” obfuscation. Kagan does not waste time or energy on indulging in false equivalencies or lamentations over polarization. His focus is on the radicalization of the Right. 11/
Perhaps most importantly, Kagan understands how the Right is giving itself permission to radicalize, to escalate, to embrace authoritarianism. He is alert to the dangerous combination of an extreme demonization of the political opponent and an entrenched siege mentality. 12/
In what he calls a “new McCarthyism,” the permission structure that governs rightwing politics emerges: It states that “Real Americans” are constantly being victimized, made to suffer under the yoke of crazy leftist politics, besieged by “Un-American” forces of leftism. 13/
In the minds of conservatives, they are never the aggressors, always the ones under assault. Building up this supposedly totalitarian, violent threat from the “Left” allows them to justify their actions within the long-established framework of conservative self-victimization. 14/
It permitted them to support Donald Trump in the first place; it remained fully intact even after January 6; it doesn’t allow for lines that can’t be crossed. And there is no reason why it shouldn’t be able to justify the erection of dictatorial rule – as a patriotic act to defend “real America.” 15/
Trump’s victory is not preordained, America is not destined to sink into authoritarianism. I agree we must not surrender to fatalism. But the defense of democracy must be based on an unflinching diagnosis of where we are and how acute the threat is – or it will fail. 16/
The Biden-led anti-MAGA coalition has brought together groups and people from a wide ideological spectrum, with vastly different ideas of what needs to be done to prevent this dark autocratic future that fall along a spectrum from mere restauration to proper transformation. 17/
Is the call to defend democracy just a fig leaf behind which a coalition of restoration is determined to merely restore the pre-Trump “normal”? Or is the resistance to Trumpism tied to a transformative vision that could actually move us beyond the status quo ante? 18/
Kagan does not weigh in on this question. But if his diagnosis is correct, the answer can’t possibly be to merely restore the deeply deficient pre-2016 type of “liberal” democracy, to just turn the clock back to a situation that resulted in Trump’s rise in the first place. 19/
If the danger is truly as great as Robert Kagan says, we need to look for a response that is commensurate with such an immense threat – one that propels America forward and transforms it into something closer to the egalitarian democracy it never has been yet.
More here:
https://thomaszimmer.substack.com/p/donald-trump-american-dictatorDonald Trump, American Dictator
Nothing is ever inevitable. But every political analysis needs to start from the recognition that there is an eminently plausible - and fairly straightforward - path from here to autocratic rule
@tzimmer_history There is no "if" about it. Trump is every bit the great danger Kagan, and Cheney, J. Michael Luttig, and other anti-Trump Republicans say he is. To say nothing of what the rest of us think.
It seems your post does not have a link to Kagan's piece in the #WashingtonPost. Here is a non-paywall link to the article -
https://archive.ph/Jzwiq
(and here is a link to what Luttig and Tribe wrote in The Atlantic back in August
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/08/donald-trump-constitutionally-prohibited-presidency/675048/ )
The #mainstream #media continue to treat #Trump as if he is a viable candidate. Sadly it is all about the #MSM earnings from reporting on Trump, not about the imminent end of the American experiment. #USPolitics #Fascism #US #Democracy
Thomas Zimmer
Ariadne
Grassroots Joe