The Economist used global excess deaths to arrive at the true death toll from the pandemic with a 95% confidence interval.

"Although the official number of deaths caused by #COVID19 is now 7m, our single best estimate is that the actual toll is 27.5m people. We find that there is a 95% chance that the true value lies between 17.8m and 30.8m additional deaths."

#Covid #SarsCov2 #GlobalExcessDeaths

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates

The pandemic’s true death toll

Our daily estimate of excess deaths around the world

The Economist
Paywall free version of the article:
https://archive.ph/jUajT#selection-1105.376-1121.19

@MadhouseMuse

Very helpful! Thx. Followed 🥰

@MadhouseMuse

So if that had happened in one country then any country smaller than Australia would just be gone. Number 55.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_(United_Nations)

Nope. Still can't get my head around that. Too many people.

List of countries by population (United Nations) - Wikipedia

@MadhouseMuse Is this broken for anyone else? Maybe archive ph is broken? I just get an endless captcha in Firefox and Chrome on Android.
@MadhouseMuse so many due to the onslaught of right wing lies. 😢
@caseyjonesed It's not just right wing lies. More people in the US have died under the Biden administration. Both parties have put economy over lives. Covid minimization and gaslighting has been shared equally by both parties.
@MadhouseMuse @caseyjonesed Do you have an establishment reference to support your claim? A journal article would be great.
@MadhouseMuse {bittersarcasm}But at least they were *mild* deaths... {/bittersarcasm}
@MadhouseMuse Saw this post while at a seminar by John Wakefield who appreciates the Economist model but notes some methodological issues. His Nature paper covers only 2020-2021 and says "We estimate 14.83 million excess deaths globally, 2.74 times more deaths than the 5.42 million reported as due to COVID-19 for the period." His numbers seem in line with the economist estimate (error bars overlapped I think) given the different time periods. https://www.nature.com/articles/S41586-022-05522-2
The WHO estimates of excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic - Nature

Msemburi et al. describe how the World Health Organization has estimated the excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, by month and for 2020 and 2021, and analyse their estimates across the WHO member states, with 14.83 million global excess deaths estimated.

Nature
@MadhouseMuse For the true nerds among us: "The Economist approach models the excess rate with a flexible tree-based machine learning technique, gradient boosting. The approach is clearly described and uses a resampling technique, the bootstrap, to form interval estimates, but there is no theory to support the use of the bootstrap with boosting, and so again, the uncertainty intervals should be viewed sceptically."
@markigra @MadhouseMuse Omicron was worse than every wave before it combined. 2022 was the annus horribilis of COVID impacts.
@MadhouseMuse what is capitalism’s death toll?
@MadhouseMuse US official estimate only 20% less than Economist estimate.
Dr. Phil, Dr. Oz, Dr. Drew Trigger Backlash With Coronavirus Comments

Dr. Phil McGraw is the latest celebrity doctor to trigger a backlash over comments made on the coronavirus, when, as a guest on Laura Ingraham’s Fox News show, he compared coronavirus deaths …

Deadline
@Npars01 sure we do: it was Russia.
Why is Mitch McConnell blocking election security bills? Good question.

One likely reason: To avoid upsetting President Trump, who is particularly touchy on the subject of Russian election interference

The Washington Post

@Npars01 @Dhmspector

So many people who want what’s right for democracy in America still don’t understand the bigger picture. Eventually, this needs to be to absorbed more fully, to fortify us against the onslaught of propaganda, pushed hysterically from Kremlin and it’s surrogates here.

On MSNBC today, Ali Vitali referred to Turning Point USA—“the grassroots organization” Really?🤨 Next segment, Rachel Maddow with her book on Fascism in America. What’s very wrong with this picture? Anybody??

@lindamarie @Dhmspector

Turning Point USA is NOT "grass roots"

It's astroturf funded by GOP billionaires. It's a campus brown shirt extremist movement.

Like "Moms for Liberty" terrorizing school boards, Turning Point USA recruits young people to terrorize shoppers wearing masks, campus voters, & science teachers

Threats, & violence funded by #KochNetwork
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turning_Point_USA

Bernard Marcus
Bruce Rauner
Darwin Deason
Richard Uihlein
Bradley
Koch's Donors Trust
Thomas W. Smith
Einhorn

Turning Point USA - Wikipedia

@Npars01 @Dhmspector

Exactly! To me, it was such a blatant mislabeling and a misleading statement—and it was live reporting on a prime time broadcast! That it was allowed to go unchallenged, uncorrected on Joy Reid was shocking. I see omissions as a regular problem. I started to watch MSNBC regularly on J 6, when I realized I didn’t know nearly enough about what’s going on. But they’re not committed to (or allowed to!) tell the whole story. I value your dedicated truth-telling, with receipts!

@MadhouseMuse I'm surprised that Finland shows more excess deaths than Sweden, given how okay Sweden was with just letting the pandemic run through the population at the beginning. But maybe it's just that enough time has passed since all of Europe gave up on containment, and there has been time for the weaknesses of Finland's medical system (not necessarily directly related to covid) to be a bigger factor.

@MadhouseMuse

I wish someone would do this for heat deaths, which are severely under-reported and under-indentified.

@MadhouseMuse Those who believe Covid is a hoax will scoff at this data.