Mastodawn

Biggs Sep 4, 2023

Christopher Mims

Evidence of America’s — and the world’s — climate migrations are mounting.

In this thread, I’ll collect all the papers, news items and anecdotes I find on the subject. Feel free to contribute by using this tag:

#climatemigration

It’s starting with insurers. When homes are destroyed and homeowners lose everything, with no recourse, market forces herd people away from the zones of greatest vulnerability:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/09/03/natural-disaster-climate-insurance/

#climate #climatechange #adaptation #climateimpacts

🧵

Home insurers cut natural disasters from policies as climate risks grow

Major insurers say they will cut out damage caused by hurricanes, wind and hail from policies underwriting property along coastlines and in wildfire country.

The Washington Post

Christopher Mims Sep 4, 2023

Tech workers who fled to Austin during the pandemic are being repelled — Austin is #3 in the country for outmigration now — by a summer that has smashed all records for heat, with well over a month of days above 100 degrees.

This is a profoundly different weather than Austin had 20 or 30 years ago.

🧵 #climatemigration #climatechange

https://www.businessinsider.com/tech-workers-moved-to-austin-regrets-2023-8

Some tech workers who moved to Austin are having regrets

Drawn by the promise of an emerging tech hub, some tech workers who flocked to Austin found a middling tech scene, subpar culture, and scorching heat.

Insider

Christopher Mims Sep 4, 2023

In areas most vulnerable to climate change-enhanced disasters, like Florida, the cost of home insurance has gone up so much that it’s now affecting how much lenders will give — potentially pushing many out of the home ownership market altogether.

Others are risking having no insurance at all, gambling on complete financial ruin should their home be damaged or destroyed.

🧵 #climatemigration #climateimpacts #climatechange

https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/americans-are-bailing-on-their-home-insurance-e3395515

Americans Are Bailing on Their Home Insurance

Some homeowners who are skipping coverage say they can no longer afford rising premiums

WSJ

Christopher Mims Sep 4, 2023

One thing I've discovered in my own reporting is how many incipient threats are just waiting in the wings, for a single bad season, a single black swan event to make entire towns uninhabitable.

People who don't live out west don't know this, but entire towns have burned to the ground, forcing everyone to leave.

A prime example: Grizzly Flats, California.

1,200 residents. Most of their homes burned to the ground in 2021

#climatechange #climatemigration

https://www.wsj.com/articles/they-moved-to-rural-california-for-affordable-homes-then-the-caldor-fire-destroyed-the-town-11636207202

They Moved to Rural California for Affordable Homes. Then the Caldor Fire Destroyed the Town.

Growing populations of towns in ‘wildland-urban interface’ is a key reason for rising wildfire threat in the West, researchers say

WSJ

Christopher Mims Sep 5, 2023

“We can say now that people are dying from climate change, and that’s a different kind of statement than we would have made before”

"By 2050, the number of people suffering from a month of inescapable [extreme] heat could further grow to a staggering 1.3 billion."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2023/pakistan-extreme-heat-health-impacts-death/

via @therockyfiles

#climatechange #climateimpacts #climatemigration

Pakistan bears the brunt of global extreme heat illness and mortality

Climate-fueled disease — tied to heat, pathogens and toxins — is an emerging, lethal threat that countries are ill-prepared to confront. The Post visited ground zero for this new era, Pakistan, to see what the future holds.

The Washington Post

Jennifer Moore 😷Sep 4, 2023

Can it really count as a "black swan event"? I'm thinking of how climate change makes suchlike fires increasingly likely to happen.

In the old times, it would have been one. But that was a different world. Today's probabilities include a lot more fires.

:-(

Atomic Fox Sep 4, 2023

@unchartedworlds @mimsical

Honestly, it wasn't rare for such things to happen in the 19th century. You just don't know about them because that was the past, and those communities were far more isolated than they are now.

Then in the 20th century, organizations such as the US Forest Service dedicated themselves to making fires rare, and town-destroying fires nonexistent. Unfortunately, as the threat receded into the past, funding for such efforts dried up ; and there's a legacy of poorly-thought-out practices which left more available fuel for destructive fires. It can be nearly impossible to do a "controlled burn" in California, for instance, owing to a variety of conflicts among regulatory agencies.

Jennifer Moore 😷Sep 4, 2023

Oh interesting, thanks for the info. I have read other stuff about the "controlled burn" & other management rhythms being abandoned & that wisdom lost, & that being a factor.

Ariaflame Sep 5, 2023

@unchartedworlds @mimsical Some places black swans are really common. Things are changing. Can't make any assumptions based on previous weather/climate

Bryan Hansel Sep 4, 2023

@mimsical people are migrating to Duluth, MN, a location called "Climate Proof Duluth."

#ClimateChange #ClimateMigration

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2021/10/04/climateproof-duluth-why-the-city-is-attracting-climate-migrants

Climate-proof Duluth? Why the city is attracting 'climate migrants'

Two years ago, a Harvard professor identified Duluth as a potential destination for future “climate migrants” — people who leave their homes due to rising sea levels or climate-related extreme weather. While initially met with some skepticism from locals, some people have already moved to Duluth because of climate change. And more are looking to come.

MPR News

Christopher Mims Sep 4, 2023

@bryanhansel yes! great story, good addition to this thread

Brian Vastag Sep 4, 2023

@bryanhansel @mimsical I haven't been to Duluth in ages and now I want to see what the southern transplants have done to the place.

Bryan Hansel Sep 5, 2023

@brianvastag @mimsical it's pretty much the same except the medical industry has exploded in size.

Lord Caramac the Clueless, KSC Sep 5, 2023

@mimsical They're not even Black Swan events anymore unless you aren't paying attention to the science. A significant rise in major catastrophes like out-of-control wildfires, flooding after heavy rain, deadly heatwaves, etc. is to be expected.

Lord Caramac the Clueless, KSC Sep 5, 2023

@mimsical And if you live in any coastal area, you might want to get away from there. If you own any property in a coastal area, it will probably become entirely worthless in the future, so if you can find some idiot who will buy it, make sure they deserve it and aren't just some poor deluded sucker. Sea level rise is the whitest of white swans now, it happens in plain sight.

Allan Chow Sep 4, 2023

@mimsical companies like kin insurance specialize in going into insurance markets others won't. Their claim is that their automated data pipelines and lack of brick and mortar agent costs (alongside charging the appropriate premium) allows them to take on these risks. Time will tell if that will be the case.

Nicole Parsons Sep 4, 2023

@grumpasaurus @mimsical

More likely it's a marketing scam being ignored by Republican regulators and GOP oversight boards.

They will accept high price premiums from home owners who are grateful to get any insurance at all. Home owners get desperate because many mortgage lenders will close loans when there's no property insurance.

Then the insurer will declare bankruptcy just like insurers did after Katrina.

There's been huge consolidation of insurance into the hands of #KochNetwork donors.

Allan Chow Sep 4, 2023

@Npars01 @mimsical it's always interesting when such high unit economics still pursues such a big funding round
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230322005218/en/Kin-upsizes-its-Series-D-round-to-109M

Kin upsizes its Series D round to $109M

Kin, the direct-to-consumer home insurance company built for every new normal®, today announced that it conducted a third close, an incremental $15 mi

Nicole Parsons Sep 4, 2023

@grumpasaurus @mimsical

Markets should heed Dan Arielly's books, especially "Predictably Irrational"

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Ariely

Dan Ariely - Wikipedia

Kat O’Brien Sep 4, 2023

@mimsical here’s another one to add to the thread.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/08/home-insurance-costs-wildfires-floods-weather/675141/
#ClimateMigration

What Your Insurer Is Trying to Tell You About Climate Change

Insurers are trying to send a message. The government is trying to suppress it.

The Atlantic

Christopher Mims Sep 4, 2023

@obrien_kat ah, saw this one, haven't read it yet - ty for sharing

Marcel Salathé Sep 4, 2023

@mimsical Thanks for reporting on this. I think that insurance is one of the most powerful, yet often overlooked, mechanisms for shaping societal behavior and choices in response to change. See self-driving cars

Nicole Parsons Sep 4, 2023

@marcelsalathe @mimsical

Insurance and risk management services only work as a corrective in a free market.

Instead, the oil industry has been buying up insurers and consolidating the property insurance industry for over a decade.

They plan on declaring bankruptcy in the event of disaster. Or getting a government bailout.

Reminder, the same overconsolidation is happening in the life insurance industry too. They plan on not paying settlements in mass death events too.

Lazarou Monkey Terror 🚀💙🌈Sep 4, 2023

@Npars01 @marcelsalathe @mimsical homes and lives worthless in the eyes of Capitalism.....

Michael Wong Sep 4, 2023

@mimsical Sounds like there is 3 groups of homeowners in Florida.

1 is the uninsured who risk complete ruin if disaster hits.

2 is those insured with Florida which seems not to have enough reserves to cover a big disaster. If disaster hits they will likely only get a fraction of what they need (also risk of complete ruin).

3 is those insured with private insurance. If a big disaster happens, these companies will fight claims to avoid bankruptcy.

Thus risk of complete ruin for all groups

notsoloud Sep 4, 2023

@michaelwong
Long term it doesn't even matter much what insurance you have, when you eventually sell the price will be rock bottom.

People currently holding properties at risk should hurry out before everyone else does and the market crashes.

Michael Wong Sep 4, 2023

@notsoloud @mimsical

I fully agree but also say do a lot of research into the new place you move.

bubbajet Sep 4, 2023

@mimsical @briannawu So…am I supposed to feel sympathy for these people that bought in areas that are clearly going to get wiped out on a regular basis?

I believe in insurance, just like I believe in unionism. We protect each other. But if you’re going to choose risky behavior that is solely for your benefit, you should pay for the risk. Not me.

Morten Sep 4, 2023

@mimsical Medical bankruptcy and natural disaster bankruptcy. It must be very exciting living in the US.

Vince Katter Sep 4, 2023

@mimsical Rates for commercial property insurance *elsewhere* in the US ( personal experience in MKE, WI ) are also going up because of climate change related claims impact on the re-insurance market for US property insurers.

eribosot Sep 4, 2023

@mimsical Compare California, where State Farm simply refuses to sell home insurance entirely https://calmatters.org/housing/2023/05/state-farm-california-insurance/

State Farm won't sell new home insurance in California. Can the state shore up the market?

Deadly wildfires and expensive construction costs are driving State Farm out of California's home insurance market.

CalMatters

Jim Hubbell Sep 4, 2023

@mimsical
No one wants to admit home prices will fall to more reasonable levels? Ordinary homes should be 5 figures, not 6. That will make insurance costs more affordable as well.

AutisticMumTo3 Sep 5, 2023

@mimsical
Its not just home owners that need home insurance. Home Contents insurance is needed by anyone who has somewhere to live be they a tenant or home owner.

otto Sep 13, 2023

@mimsical But FL is too fascist to beef up building codes to match the challenges climate will hurl at its residential infrastructure. And building and the ownership of buildings is already hurting because of inflation. Insurers eventually bring about improvements in codes but I see that effect mostly in fire and electric codes.

Allan Chow Sep 4, 2023

@mimsical who knew weather was a thing to consider when moving somewhere.

Trojan Duck Sep 4, 2023

@mimsical The green belt from Minnesota to Maine is going to see a huge influx of climate migrants in the coming years. After decades of general decline, the 2030 census will see increasing populations in all of these states.

Brandon Kraft ❤️‍🔥🧡Sep 4, 2023

@mimsical I've joked for years that Austin is great but our summers melt away the weak ones.

It's tongue-in-cheek, but those that fall in love with Austin during SXSW are in for a shock come summer.

dr2chase Sep 4, 2023

@mimsical I've lived in FL, TX (Houston), CA (Silicon Valey), and MA, and visited northern VT when it was darn-cold there (-16F). It's easier to dress for the MA cold than it is to (un)dress for the TX or FL heat. For FL, one factor is the increased ocean (Gulf) heat, which raises the already darn-high humidity.

Also, different people acclimate differently, near-Pacific CA is comfortable to very many people, not everyone can acquire a taste for TX or FL, or for Canadian cold.

dr2chase Sep 4, 2023

@mimsical A tail-risk problem for Florida barrier islands is *if* the north atlantic circulation changes, sea level rise down into the Gulf is likely (there was an incident in 2009-2010 where sea levels rose 5 inches in New England: https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms7346 -- oddly did not make the news that I usually read). It won't be enough to directly, continuously flood properties, but all the underground infrastructure is at risk; if the water table rises under a road bed, that's bad.

An extreme event of sea-level rise along the Northeast coast of North America in 2009–2010 - Nature Communications

Extreme sea level rises are a threat to coastal communities, but their cause, in terms of seasonal or interannual time scales, has received little attention. Here, the authors combine observational and model data to show that one such rise in 2009–10 was caused by a 30% downturn in the Atlantic overturning circulation.

Nature

dr2chase Sep 4, 2023

@mimsical (I have seen this happen, thanks to an inept land developer in my childhood neighborhood, and one heavy truck turns the road into asphalt crumble. Oversized passenger vehicles won't help.)

Sooner or later municipal finance will become a problem, through a combination of falling property values and risk-averse bond lenders. Strong storms are (historically) not that common in the Sarasota-St Pete-Clearwater area, this might happen before much housing destruction.

CKJohnsonBk Sep 4, 2023

@mimsical When I went to school in Austin in the mid-1980s, I lived a summer without air conditioning. It was hot but bearable with fans. I don’t think that could be done now.

Nicole Parsons Sep 4, 2023

In Texas, Abbott & his donors have established a system of public corruption similar to Tamanny Hall.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tammany_Hall#:~:text=Tammany%20usually%20controlled%20Democratic%20nominations,majority%20were%20Irish%20Catholics%20due

Donate to Abbott & you or your friends & family can be appointed to head an agency that regulates, say, the insurance industry or sets electricity utility rates etc.
https://www.texastribune.org/2022/10/18/greg-abbott-texas-fundraising-governor-donors/
This system of public corruption & oligarchy is so profitable to the GOP in Texas & Florida, they want to launch it nation wide.
https://www.kxan.com/investigations/money-politics-and-txtag-abbott-donors-on-oversight-board/

Tammany Hall - Wikipedia

Christopher Mims Sep 4, 2023

@Npars01 yikes :(

Cantard Sep 4, 2023

@mimsical live down in San Antonio and I adapted by taking my walks at six in the morning. Enjoying the greens of scenery in outdoor life is not really a thing right now.

Eric Southard Sep 4, 2023

@mimsical 2011 was no picnic tbh

Atomic Fox Sep 4, 2023

Texas is known for having a far less equable climate than California. Anyone who moved to Texas expecting anything else has an unrealistic view of the world.

And, yes, the Hill Country has long been known as the most equable climate in Texas. But trust me, it's still "cold in the winter and hot in the summer" by Los Angeles standards.

Richard Hendricks Sep 4, 2023

@mimsical Austin is going to be in serious trouble when San Antonio and Dallas begin fighting over lake waters.

Joe Lapp, Bug Poet Sep 4, 2023

@mimsical After 20 years in Austin, I left last year in part because I no longer believed the state could guarantee electricity in the summer or winter (and hence not water in the winter), and because I believe Austin is going to periodically run out of water. We were rationing water in 2011, and now there are 50% more people in the county.

Morten Sep 4, 2023

@mimsical It's a great article but there's a very important point quite far down. The issue with insurers isn't that disasters are happening but that they can't calculate their likelihood. It's Black Swan all over. If they were confident they could price it - which would be great for consumers because it would give them an idea about the value of a house with disaster risk.

Martha Lemert Sep 4, 2023

Yep. The Midwest better get ready for the coming #climatemigration.

Black Chic with the Red Truck Sep 4, 2023

@MartyLemert It’s already happening.

Lazarou Monkey Terror 🚀💙🌈Sep 4, 2023

@mimsical I know for a fact government departments in the UK have worked out where the flooding will be, and that insurance companies have access to this data and are planning accordingly.
Sucks to be those living in the flood zones, I doubt Capitalism will help them move to drier land.

🇺🇦 haxadecimal 🚫👑Sep 4, 2023

@mimsical I don't understand how it justifies cutting coverage AND raising premiums. Cutting coverage should REDUCE premiums.

therieau Sep 4, 2023

@brouhaha @mimsical Sounds like you’re counting on insurance companies to have a moral compass that doesn’t point toward greed. Raising revenue AND reducing risk seems like something right out of their playbook.

You know, like a good neighbor.

Paul Guinnessy Sep 4, 2023

@mimsical in the 1980s Lloyd’s of London was spending more money on analyzing the future risk of climate change research than the UK government (which wasn’t a lot). I think that message needs to be pushed more.

Nicole Parsons Sep 4, 2023

That's not what happens though.

Climate migration is forcing people to abandon their real estate assets & it's being scooped up by the wealthy.

When insurance companies were permitted to go bankrupt & not provide settlements. In New Orleans, Florida, & the Carolinas, prime real estate is carpetbagged.

The rich, in essence, are self-insured, & yet...

The rules are changed so taxpayer funded disaster relief & public insurance covers their losses, repeatedly.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/one-house-22-floods-repeated-claims-drain-federal-insurance-program-1505467830

One House, 22 Floods: Repeated Claims Drain Federal Insurance Program

Experts say more such homes should be purchased and razed, but funds for buyouts are lacking and residents push back

WSJ

Barbara Monaco Sep 4, 2023

@mimsical Just learned that my homeowners policy in CA will rise by 50% in the coming year. I've had no claims and did not increase coverage. I began to shop around and was shocked at how many companies refuse to write new policies in CA.
It's alarming.

Christopher Mims Sep 4, 2023

@Barbramon1 it should be! what's happening in cali is terrifying. I wish you the best.