"Not the odds, but the stakes."

That's my shorthand for the organizing principle we most need in 2024 election coverage. Not who has what chances of winning, but the consequences for our democracy— given what's possible in this election. Not the odds, but the stakes.

Here is an example of stakes commentary. Its analysis is both plausible and terrifying.

https://newrepublic.com/article/174535/people-arent-facing-horrors-new-trump-term-bring

#journalism #uspol #science

People Aren’t Facing Up to the Horrors a New Trump Term Would Bring

G’bye, NATO. G’bye, “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” repeal. G’bye, democracy. He’s telling us plain as day. Why aren’t people listening?

The New Republic

@jayrosen_nyu

Yes! The subtitle says it all: Why aren't people listening?

@jayrosen_nyu The people who support him most fervently want exactly those horror-story outcomes.

I fully expect them to come for Canada Blitzkrieg-style if their local cronies can't install someone like Pierre Poilievre or Maxime Bernier by hook or by crook.

@MrCooper

@jayrosen_nyu

How do leftists not understand that in the American system as it currently works a vote for any third party left wing candidate is half a vote for the Republican?

Is it really worth betting democracy on this cycle? What scenario are you envisioning where he gets anything more than 1-2%? (aka probable winning margins in the swing states)

Was Jill Stein worth it in 2016?

@radical_moderate @jayrosen_nyu
If the green party is a threat to your party, then your party sucks.

My vote will never take a vote away from biden because I'll never vote for him, so don't worry.

@MrCooper

@jayrosen_nyu

So...you believe in left wing causes...and you go to the trouble of voting... Do you think there will be a free and fair election in 2028 if Trump wins in 2024?

Did you read the article?

@jayrosen_nyu however “people” seem to understand this better than the “media” which today is amplifying republican conspiracies, ignoring anything and everything bad about trump, trying to help McCarthy impeach Pres. Biden for being honest and competent, and trying to get the Bidens to kill their dog and disown their son.
@jayrosen_nyu Two big problems here. The issue is not "people" failing to face up to Trump's agenda. The problem is political reporters. Let's be clear. Also, it tells us "there’s also Trump’s belief in unitary executive theory." There is no reason to believe Trump has any idea of this theory. Trump believes he gets to do whatever he wants: full stop. No point in dressing it up as a serious legal position.
@DeanBaker13 @jayrosen_nyu And another big problem: The incessant drumbeat of what Donald Trump thinks, feels, and believes. "Full Pompous Stop."

@jayrosen_nyu

"The problem is political reporters"
~@DeanBaker13

This modern parable is well worth reading for everyone, but especially for those involved/interested in #Journalism #News #Media #Politics #BothSides #Bipartisanship #Neutrality

“The Man in the River”
by A. R. Moxon, Verified Duck
@JuliusGoat

Thread version: https://newsie.social/@JuliusGoat@mastodon.social/110559301225699624

Essay version: https://armoxon.substack.com/p/the-man-in-the-river

#Essay #WorthReading

@DeanBaker13 @jayrosen_nyu

Trump adheres only to the Trump Doctrine. Best stated on the back of the Access Hollywood bus…”when you’re a star they let you do it. You can anything. Grab em by the …”

@jayrosen_nyu
People are refusing to face up to a lot of dire situations in our near future. If we act like ostriches with our heads in the sand today, tomorrow we may go the way of the dinosaurs.
@jayrosen_nyu And even if they end up with another candidate, they will inherit the playbook and strong demand to push through most, if not all of these things.

@jayrosen_nyu I'm sorry, any opinion writer is limited to one use of "weaponized" per essay, and even then they should be prepared for the cringe produced by this cliche.

But yes, of course, stakes not odds.

@jayrosen_nyu the stage is set for orange to drag down the right. the play is to set your sights on making bothsides media pay for propping up the right. this is how we let nature take its course, and the abysmal swallows itself down a hole.

@jayrosen_nyu Good piece, but it's no surprise that people aren't facing up to the horrors a new Trump administration will bring — people are not facing up to the horrors of climate change, and that's certain whereas Trump's re-election is not.

People just seem unwilling to face up to bad things if they can possibly avoid it, and they usually can.

@jayrosen_nyu Blueprint Project 2025 which if he or any other Republican wins will be used to destroy our government. We will not survive.

https://thf_media.s3.amazonaws.com/project2025/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf

@jayrosen_nyu no need to worry. He’ll never get to the Whitehouse. Winters coming.

@jayrosen_nyu *FRESH TAKE*

I will take a bow because apparently I must be the only one in the US who recognizes that trump is a tool and the real threat to democracy are the average next door neighbor GOP voters, especially those who may not actually like trump, but who gladly support the party because they’d rather win a dictatorship than lose in a democracy.

PLEASE STOP FOCUSING ON TRUMP.

@jayrosen_nyu I think we can win, but we need to go for more. Squash the Republicans like cockroaches...
A Republican 2024 Climate Strategy: More Drilling, Less Clean Energy

Project 2025, a conservative “battle plan” for the next Republican president, would stop attempts to cut the pollution that is heating the planet and encourage more emissions.

The New York Times
@jayrosen_nyu this is why five thirty-eight was/is so damaging.