"It is obvious how much is at stake for #Ukraine, politically and emotionally. But in Kyiv, the anxiety runs deeper than that. 'I know that when the counteroffensive starts, a lot of people I know will die,' a politician told the Guardian on Sunday."
Russian bloggers fill in counteroffensive blanks as #Kyiv’s troops probe frontline | #UkraineWar | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/05/ukraine-counter-attack-looks-imminent-as-troops-search-for-russian-weaknesses
This is it. And the Russians blowing up the #KakhovkaDam won't affect the counteroffensive at all.
"The combat against Russian positions south of Zaporizhzhia included western-supplied tanks and armoured vehicles and infantry backed by artillery. There were reports of intense fighting outside the town of #Tokmak, a key Russian logistical hub." #UkraineWar
Intense fighting reported as Ukrainian forces go on attack south of #Zaporizhzhia
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/08/tense-fighting-reported-as-ukrainian-forces-go-on-attack-south-of-zaporizhzhia
"President Volodymyr Zelensky, his armed forces and their supporters in the West will be hoping for something similar. They need a decisive campaign that not only recaptures swathes of Ukrainian territory but also destroys a significant part of the Russian armed forces in #Ukraine so they cannot conduct offensive operations again in 2023." #UkraineWar
#MickRyan assesses #Ukraine’s counter-offensive
https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2023/06/08/mick-ryan-assesses-ukraines-counter-offensive
"Known as 'the gate to Crimea' , the #ChonharBridge is one of a handful of bridges linking #Crimea – which was annexed by #Russia in 2014 – with the mainland.
#Ukraine is determined to retake the Crimean peninsula and one of the key objectives of its recently launched counteroffensive is to isolate Russian troops there."#UkraineWar
Russia-Ukraine war live: Ukraine strikes bridge linking Kherson and Crimea, Russia-appointed officials say
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/22/russia-ukraine-war-live-slow-pace-of-counteroffensive-setting-conditions-for-future-main-effort-usthinktank-says?page=with:block-649401328f08c081c5bb5d01#block-649401328f08c081c5bb5d01
"Repairing the #Chonhar road bridge after a missile strike #Russia has blamed on #Ukraine could take up to several weeks, a Russian-installed transport ministry official in #Crimea was cited as saying on Thursday." #ChonharBridge #UkraineWar
Wagner chief Yevgeny #Prigozhin on Wednesday contradicted Russian President Vladimir #Putin’s insistence that that there was a “lull” in #Ukraine’s counteroffensive, saying in an audio message that “huge chunks” of Ukrainian territory have been regained by its army. #UkraineWar
Russia’s #Wagner mercenary chief says #Moscow ‘misleading Russians’ over #UkraineOffensive
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230621-%F0%9F%94%B4-live-western-allies-seeking-private-funds-to-rebuild-ukraine-at-london-conference
Slow that is until something critical in the Russian defensive lines breaks. Then things will happen quickly. #UkraineWar
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“In the military, according to their reports and positions, everything is moving according to plan. It is not necessary to expect the offensive to be something very fast,” Maliar said.
#Ukraine says it advances in south, stops Russian attack in east
https://www.rappler.com/world/europe/russia-ukraine-crisis-updates-june-23-2023/
"#Syrskyi was also credited with the execution of a plan to push #Russia’s artillery far enough away from the north-eastern city of #Kharkiv to spare civilians who had been living under constant fire, before he was said to have masterminded the counteroffensive that broke through Russian lines and liberated the wider region." #UkraineWar #UkraineOffensive
‘Everything is still ahead’: inside a secret military base with top Ukraine general
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/23/ukraine-commander-says-main-offensive-reserve-yet-to-be-sent-into-battle
"#FSB opens criminal case after Yevgeny #Prigozhin accuses #Russia’s military of rocket attack and says ‘evil’ leadership must be stopped... The FSB said that Prigozhin’s statements and actions constituted 'calls for the start of an armed civil conflict on the territory of the Russian Federation' ." #UkraineWar
Russia investigates #Wagner chief for ‘armed mutiny’ after call for attack on military https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/23/wagner-chief-accuses-russias-military-of-attack-and-says-evil-leadership-must-be-stopped
"Yevgeny #Prigozhin says his fighters will march on capital unless military leaders come to him in extraordinary escalation of tensions" #UkraineWar #Russia
#Wagner chief claims to have seized military sites in #Rostov as #Moscow implements anti-terror measures
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/24/wagner-chief-claims-to-have-seized-military-sites-in-rostov-as-moscow-implements-anti-terror-measures
"The city – just 60 miles (100km) from #Ukraine’s border – is home to the Russian southern military district command, whose 58th Combined Arms Army is fighting against Kyiv’s counteroffensive in southern Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) thinktank." #UkraineWar #Russia
Rostov-on-Don: why has Russian city been targeted by #Wagner group?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/24/wagner-chief-claims-to-have-seized-military-sites-in-rostov-as-moscow-implements-anti-terror-measures
"The Guardian has spoken with numerous people who have known #Prigozhin over the years, many of whom requested anonymity to speak freely, to piece together his story. From these conversations, a picture emerges of a ruthless schemer who was obsequious to social superiors and often tyrannical to underlings as he rose to the top." #Russia #UkraineWar
#YevgenyPrigozhin: the hotdog seller who rose to the top of #Putin’s war machine
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/24/yevgeny-prigozhin-the-hotdog-seller-who-rose-to-the-top-of-putin-war-machine-wagner-group
Russian officials have said the Wagner group founder was on a plane that crashed outside Moscow. Some of those who knew him describe – what had been up to his abortive rebellion this summer – an extraordinary journey from prison to power
"#Ukraine will be watching for an opportunity to turn #Russia’s internal chaos into advantage on the frontline. Even if #Prigozhin’s mutiny is brought swiftly under control, it is bound to sow confusion and uncertainty among Russian soldiers and commanders more widely" #UkraineWar #Russia
Prigozhin and #Wagner cannot challenge #Putin’s power directly, but they expose his weakening grip | Keir Giles
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/24/prigozhin-and-wagner-cannot-challenge-putins-power-directly-but-they-expose-his-weakening-grip-keir-giles
"Flights from #Moscow have reportedly sold out as the #Wagner mercenary group approaches.
Der Spiegel has reported that tickets for direct connections from Moscow to #Tbilisi, #Astana and #Istanbul are no longer available." #UkraineWar #Russia
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/23/russia-ukraine-war-live-russia-investigates-mutiny-as-wagner-chief-says-evil-military-leaders-must-be-stopped?page=with:block-6496e5cc8f08657ec73221ff#block-6496e5cc8f08657ec73221ff
Big mistake.
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"Speculation over #Putin's whereabouts amid reports his plane left #Moscow
There have been numerous reports that Vladimir Putin’s presidential plane took off from Moscow’s Vnukovo airport at 2.16pm local time (1216 BST) and then headed north-west." #Russia #Wagner #UkraineWar
"The #Lipetsk region is about 360km (225 miles) south of #Moscow and much closer to the capital than Rostov-on-Don, where #Wagner forces appeared during the night." #Russia #UkraineWar
Wagner mercenaries enter Lipetsk province, Russian governor says
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/23/russia-ukraine-war-live-russia-investigates-mutiny-as-wagner-chief-says-evil-military-leaders-must-be-stopped?page=with:block-6496fcac8f084ea43c43f922#block-6496fcac8f084ea43c43f922
#Ukraine liberates territories near city during #Wagner mutiny – reports
"According to Ukrainian news agencies, #Kyiv has liberated the territories near the city of #Krasnohorivka in #Donetsk region, which have been occupied by pro-Russia separatists since 2014." #UkraineWar
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/23/russia-ukraine-war-live-russia-investigates-mutiny-as-wagner-chief-says-evil-military-leaders-must-be-stopped?page=with:block-649702e88f084ea43c43f958#block-649702e88f084ea43c43f958
Mercenary revolt in #Russia
"#Wagner leader Yevgeny #Prigozhin said his mercenary group has taken control of #Rostov-on-Don amid a feud with Russian military leaders" via NBC #UkraineWar
"The Russian president is facing the most serious threat to his hold on power in all the 23 years he’s run the nuclear state. And it is staggering to behold the veneer of total control he has maintained all that time – the ultimate selling point of his autocracy – crumble overnight."
#Russia #Wagner #Prigozhin #UkraineWar
#Putin is at risk of losing his iron grip on power. The next 24 hours are critical
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/24/europe/russia-putin-wagner-prigozhin-analysis-intl/index.html
“What’s really going to happen, we’ll have to see tomorrow. And who actually did give which concessions to whom,” he told Al Jazeera. “Ceasefires don’t hold that easily. Before you see the small print, it’s not the time to say that it’s over. It can easily unravel in an hour or two, or tomorrow.” - Pavel Felgenhauer, Russian defence analyst
#Wagner boss calls off march on #Moscow; agrees to exile in #Belarus | #Prigozhin #UkraineWar #Putin #Russia
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/24/wagner-boss-says-march-on-moscow-halted-to-avoid-bloodshed
The US Senate has introduced a resolution which proposes that the actions of #Russia, #Belarus “or proxy of Russia” be considered as an attack on #NATO, if their actions lead to radioactive contamination of the allies’ territory. #UkraineWar #Zaporizhzhia #NuclearPlant
Nuclear cloud will trigger NATO’s #Article5, #US warns Russia
https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/nuclear-cloud-will-trigger-natos-article-5-us-warns-russia/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=mastodon
"#Ukraine in this war is fighting not only for the right to exist, but also for the opportunity to become a European country, intolerant to #corruption…That is why scrutiny of officials and government becomes even more important for journalists than before the war,” says Segvil Musaeva, the editor-in-chief of Ukrainska Pravda." #UkraineWar #Europe
War is reshaping the Ukrainian state—for the better
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2023/06/22/war-is-reshaping-the-ukrainian-state-for-the-better?utm_medium=social-media.content.np&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=editorial-social&utm_content=discovery.content
"On Saturday in #Copenhagen, as the world trained its eyes on the apparent imminent collapse of #VladimirPutin’s regime, a gathering of senior government security advisers from the global South and the West met with Ukraine’s leadership to discuss a #PathToPeace. The gathering, the first uniting the global south and western powers at this level over #Ukraine has the potential to be even more ominous for #Putin." #UkraineWar
"According to delle Fave, #Prigozhin must have had some level of support from the intelligence and military communities, who would have noticed his movements in the days leading up to the rebellion as he moved men and materiel into #Rostov-on-Don." #UkraineWar
Open rebellion against #Russia may be #Wagner chief Prigozhin’s last stand
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230625-open-rebellion-against-russia-could-be-wagner-chief-prigozhin-s-last-stand
Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin triggered a crisis in Russia on Saturday with an armed rebellion headed to Moscow. But by the following day, the 62-year-old mercenary leader appeared to have played all of his cards and now faces a negotiated exile in Belarus along with some of his troops.
“Russia has just lost 25,000 soldiers,” Retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, a former general of the U.S. forces in Europe, told Times Radio on Sunday, referring to the #Wagner mercenaries. “Every one of them is going to be looked at with suspicion and seen as unreliable.” #Russia #UkraineWar
Prigozhin’s Wagner mutiny is over. What now?
https://www.politico.eu/article/yevgeny-prigozhin-wagner-mutiny-over-what-happens-now/
"RIA Novosti, the Russian state-owned news agency, is reporting that the criminal case against Yevgeny #Prigozhin over the mutiny has not been dropped." #Wagner #Russia #UkraineWar
Criminal investigation into Prigozhin continues – Russian media reports
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/26/russia-ukraine-war-live-kyiv-claims-advances-near-bakhmut-rouble-falls-to-15-month-low-after-wagner-rebellion?page=with:block-64994acd8f084ea43c4406ab#block-64994acd8f084ea43c4406ab
"The bloc’s military ambitions came as the #UK, a strong opponent of #EU defense integration, was leaving the bloc after #Brexit. With #DonaldTrump as U.S. president, there was fear of #US disengagement from #NATO and #Europe. And then there was #Russia’s 2014 illegal annexation #of Crimea and its war against eastern #Ukraine, which changed perceptions on the potential threats facing the EU." #UkraineWar
https://www.politico.eu/article/after-russia-invasion-ukraine-brussels-eu-military-player-not-power/
"Borrell said the instability in Russia was dangerous given its nuclear arsenal and would be top of the agenda at the #Luxembourg summit, where ministers voted through a promise to top up #Ukraine’s military funds by €3.5bn (£3bn)." #Russia #EU #Wagner #UkraineWar
The monster is acting against his creator, #EU foreign policy chief says of #Prigozhin mutiny
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/26/prigozhin-mutiny-monster-acting-creator-eu-diplomat-josep-borrell
The Russian warlord Yevgeny #Prigozhin has reappeared for the first time since abandoning his armed mutiny on Saturday evening, issuing a defiant 11-minute statement in which he defended the #Wagner uprising and said that “society demanded it.” #Russia #UkraineWar
Society demanded it,' says Prigozhin in first comments since abandoning mutiny
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/26/russia-ukraine-war-live-kyiv-claims-advances-near-bakhmut-rouble-falls-to-15-month-low-after-wagner-rebellion?page=with:block-6499ab8a8f082bf8c46ddfb2#block-6499ab8a8f082bf8c46ddfb2
"Verstka" confirmed the construction of a camp in #Osipovichi, #Mogilev region, for 8, 000 fighters, 200 km from the border with #Ukraine. There will be several camps | #Russia #UkraineWar
#Belarus Begins to Build Camps to Accommodate #Wagner PMC Fighters
https://verstka.media/v-belarusi-stroyat-lagerya-dlya-vagnera
Senior Ukrainian officials in #Kyiv have argued that the attempted coup in #Russia shows that Vladimir #Putin does not guarantee stability - and instead makes it more likely the Russian state will collapse | Luke Harding| #Wagner #UkraineWar
"When #Russia’s mercenary group marched on #Moscow, it seemed to take the world – and Vladimir #Putin – by surprise . What does it mean for his grip on power – and for his war?" #UkraineWar
What the #Wagner mutiny means for #Ukraine, Russia and Putin #Podcast
https://www.theguardian.com/news/audio/2023/jun/27/what-the-wagner-mutiny-means-for-ukraine-russia-and-putin-podcast
"The events of June 23-24 amounted to a #mutiny, not a coup d’état. Mercenary leader Yevgeny #Prigozhin’s objective was to renegotiate the terms of his contract with #Putin and the Ministry of Defense, never to topple the regime. That’s how it is in modern #Russia. Events solved elsewhere by lawsuits in hushed courtrooms are fixed with automatic rifles and bombastic social media tirades." #Wagner
Russia’s Security Forces Learn Bitter Lessons From Putin’s Maneuvering
https://cepa.org/article/russias-security-forces-learn-bitter-lessons-from-putins-maneuvering/
"#Prigozhin’s uprising did not come out of nowhere. US officials had been tracking his ongoing growing feud with #Russia’s Ministry of Defense for months, and took note when threats were traded back and forth between them. There were also signs that #Wagner was stockpiling weapons and ammunition leading up to the rebellion, CNN has reported. "
#US gathered detailed intelligence on Wagner chief’s rebellion plans but kept it secret from most allies
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/26/politics/us-intelligence-wagner-chief/index.html
“If #Prigozhin stays in #Belarus and manages #Wagner or something similar, it boosts the political clout of #Lukashenko, who will have his own real private army,” Nikolay Mitrokhin of Germany’s Bremen University told Al Jazeera.
Belarus role in #Russia-Wagner feud ‘boosts Lukashenko’s clout’
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/27/what-is-belarus-gaining-from-helping-quell-wagner
@Norobiik To be fair, the feud between Wagner and MoD has played out very loudly for over a year without anyone falling out of a window. (And remember there were *many* critics of Putin who fell out of windows)
Since March 2022, when it was clear this wasn't going to be a 3 day operation, the Barons and Courtiers that govern Russia have been jostling for position. Lukashenko and Prigozhin included.
Question is whether other courtiers like Shoigu and Matviykenko have been preparing their next move.
@davoloid I don't know enough about Shoigu & Matviykenko though I read that at least one of them has his own little private army (not on the scale of Wagner though). But if I were in their shoes, I'd be very nervous about a living Prigozhin with 8k of his men still intact in Belarus.
It doesn't bode well for either of them that Putin made a u-turn and made the FSB drop all charges against Wagner.
Norobiik @
Dave T-W