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Lauren Weinstein

You're going to be amazed at how quickly the Chinese balloon story drops out of the news (except by MAGA-land) as more information about it surfaces. Most of the ranting I've heard about it all day appears to be massively overblown on all counts, including claimed maneuverability, theoretical spying capabilities over those of a satellite, etc. There even seems to be a lack of absolute confirmation about the second balloon claimed to be over Latin or South America.

What's really going on isn't entirely clear, but for sure the GOP is many orders of magnitude more of a threat to this country compared to this balloon.

tippenring Feb 4, 2023

@lauren I've been thinking this balloon is probably a college kids weather balloon experiment.

Lauren Weinstein Feb 4, 2023

@tippenring With a payload the size of three school buses?

MikeK Feb 4, 2023

@lauren @tippenring

The #balloon is the size of three buses, not the payload.🙂

Amateur radio guys are sending smaller ones round the world all the time.

Lauren Weinstein Feb 4, 2023

@mkarliner @tippenring The stories I've seen say the payload is the size of three buses and the balloon is MUCH larger. - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/suspected-chinese-spy-balloon-spotted-225200393.html

Yahooist Teil der Yahoo Markenfamilie

tippenring Feb 4, 2023

@mkarliner @lauren the balloon the "volume" of three buses makes much more sense than "payload."

Weather balloons expand tremendously as their altitude increases.

However, a payload volume of "three buses" must have very little mass. A balloon just can't carry very much weight.

Lauren Weinstein Feb 4, 2023

@tippenring @mkarliner Read the story please: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/suspected-chinese-spy-balloon-spotted-225200393.html

Yahooist Teil der Yahoo Markenfamilie

Lauren Weinstein Feb 4, 2023

@tippenring @mkarliner Also, think about this. Why would anyone use a comparison like "three school buses" for a round balloon? It makes much more sense that they're talking about what's below the balloon, and that's what the stories I've seen all say is being described -- the payload.

tippenring Feb 4, 2023

@lauren @mkarliner many size comparisons are irrational. Lol.

I read the Yahoo article you linked. It has some vagueness, but it implies that we know the payload is transmitting RF. I suppose that's probably pretty easy to determine, but I'd like a little more validation than "we heard it transmits RF."

I'm cynical that the Chinese want to spy on us with a balloon, or that it's any more of a risk, when they have so many other options that we ignore like satellites and American citizens.

MikeK Feb 4, 2023

@lauren @tippenring

Possibly because the school bus is an SI unit of journalism. In the UK, it's been a London Bus since Brexit. 🙂

Dave Byrne Feb 4, 2023

@mkarliner @lauren @tippenring A double decker bus has indeed been the standard journalist SI unit for length and volume since the 60’s. Don’t get me started in the Boris bus!

MikeK Feb 4, 2023

@davebyrne @lauren @tippenring

Also football pitches, and for post people, tennis courts....

Dave Byrne Feb 4, 2023

@mkarliner @lauren @tippenring

https://mastodon.xyz/@xkcd/109804000038004382

XKCD Bot (@[email protected])

Attached: 1 image · Content warning: #2733 Size Comparisons

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tippenring Feb 4, 2023

@davebyrne @mkarliner @lauren there's ALWAYS a relevant XKCD.

Lauren Weinstein Feb 4, 2023

@mkarliner @davebyrne @tippenring But these described as *school* buses. Different.

MikeK Feb 4, 2023

@tippenring @lauren

Must be a stealth balloon....

🙂

Hulaviking Feb 4, 2023

@lauren but it is filled with covid!
#gop #HouseGOP

Jesús Nieto Feb 4, 2023

@hulavikih @lauren 😂😂😂 Bringing and unknown virus!!! 🤦‍♀️

David Scott Moyer Feb 4, 2023

@hulavikih @lauren These are the effing morons Republicans vote for.

Not a Spring Onion Feb 4, 2023

@hulavikih @lauren

This is obviously a gay bomb. /s

Coffee Pinewood Feb 4, 2023

@hulavikih @lauren

"Hey look! This could be full of that virus we spent three years pretending is not a big deal!"

DeterioratedStucco Feb 4, 2023

@hulavikih @lauren So let's shoot it down where it can do the most damage!!1!!

Mister Shade Feb 4, 2023

@lauren I admit I was concerned about the balloon in the beginning, but watching the Republican party and their orange lunatic leader lose their shit over it has prompted me to reassess.

Joe Feb 4, 2023

@lauren I watch a YouTuber by the name of Bough of the 5th column who did a video regarding this. He pretty much said that if it is indeed a spy balloon there is only 1 group of people who should be worried about it being Chinese counterintelligence. The response of US was basically "meh". Which means US intelligence already knows exactly what's there.

LE Murphy Feb 4, 2023

Best commentator I've heard about it is that it's a big screw up for PRC. Furthermore, the US is going to score the equipment any day now and have their own instant Espionage boost. It's like handing over the passwords to their tech network.

Lauren Weinstein Feb 4, 2023

@VividConfusion I doubt very much that there will be much there of particular value over what's already known by the relevant agencies.

LE Murphy Feb 4, 2023

Well, apparently, from the MSNBC commentator (US Senator someone), the US is behind on high altitude balloon spy surveillance. And it would give us a better idea of where they are on it. So info either way. And that it will likely be quietly retrieved in some nondestructive way. That the US State Dept trip to China probably won't happen until the balloon equipment is examined.

Lauren Weinstein Feb 4, 2023

@VividConfusion ProTip: Don't believe anything you hear from a politician about this stuff. The ones who say the most don't know what they're talking about, and the ones who do know the score aren't going to reveal it publicly. ProTip#2: Always publicly claim your surveillance capabilities are less than your adversaries, especially when they aren't.

LE Murphy Feb 4, 2023

My first 10 yrs working was at Hanford Nuclear site during the end of the Cold War. I dealt with plutonium and uranium & had a Q Clearance. I know very well the Info Sec games we play.

I still agree with the commentator. Grab the thing and learn whatever we can from it. And we can always learn *something* even if it isn't obvious.

Lauren Weinstein Feb 4, 2023

@VividConfusion Oh indeed, always good to grab the stuff and if nothing else you get confirmation data points and sometimes learn something new. I just don't think it's going to be a big deal -- it's not a warp drive, after all. Hanford huh? I'm always impressed by anyone willing to deal with that kind of environment, because I most certainly never could or would.

LE Murphy Feb 4, 2023

People might be surprised by what can be determined. For example, we might find out that they are using certain materials, indicating a shortage of materials used in higher tech. Or, maybe the analyses show that the materials originated in a country that we didn't know was supplying them with raw materials. Any info could be useful.

Lauren Weinstein Feb 4, 2023

@VividConfusion Yeah. On the other hand, there's also the possibility they assumed we'd get hold of it and analyze what we could, and have taken that into account in the first place. Spy vs. Spy.

LE Murphy Feb 4, 2023

Nope. That's not compatible with the world view of the Chinese government. They have a very... umm.... self- confident and superior view of China over others. They would never willingly let anything even have the appearance of an error.

It's also why the news of SARS and COVID-19 were all slow and limited. It would make their gov look bad so they would never do it intentionally.

Lauren Weinstein Feb 4, 2023

@VividConfusion They're already claiming explicitly that the balloon "getting loose" is an error. So that ship has already sailed.

LE Murphy Feb 4, 2023

Like i said, they would not do it intentionally. They were forced to acknowledge it by the cancelation of the SoS trip.

Tube🌿Time Feb 4, 2023

@lauren regardless this won't result in any sort of increase in US federal dollars to balloon research

jack the nonabrasive Feb 4, 2023

@tubetime @lauren WE CANNOT TOLERATE A BALLOON GAP

Doug Bostrom Feb 4, 2023

The GOP is a balloon. The floaty thing is an aerostat.

MikeK Feb 4, 2023

Just looked at the amateur radio feed from QRP labs. Much chuckling over there.

Dave Byrne Feb 4, 2023

@lauren So surely this is just some science experiment or weather ballon gone rogue. All this media speculation just doesn’t make sense. Bearing in mind the images you can buy from commercial services how much of an improvement could a ballon offer? Do they need to read someone’s hand written notes left out in the open? No makes no sense for it to be military. Maybe it’s one of those Japanese ballon bombs left over from WW2.

Lauren Weinstein Feb 4, 2023

@davebyrne The payload (not the baloon) is the size of three school buses. So, no.

Yaoi Box Balloon Feb 4, 2023

@lauren This is the fourth time I've caught wind of this story. And I have a question:

Do the people still freaking out about it have lives?

hynesyte Feb 4, 2023

@lauren
A sense of humor
Can ease minds.
https://mstdn.party/@Photoist/109807274357380021

Photoist♾️ (@[email protected])

Attached: 1 image No need to worry everyone, it's just my DoorDash! #ChineseSpyBalloon #Delivery #DoorDash #ChineseFood

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lord pthenq1 Feb 4, 2023

@lauren
Yes. Indeed. Yes!