Mastodawn

Lauren Weinstein Feb 4, 2023

You're going to be amazed at how quickly the Chinese balloon story drops out of the news (except by MAGA-land) as more information about it surfaces. Most of the ranting I've heard about it all day appears to be massively overblown on all counts, including claimed maneuverability, theoretical spying capabilities over those of a satellite, etc. There even seems to be a lack of absolute confirmation about the second balloon claimed to be over Latin or South America.

What's really going on isn't entirely clear, but for sure the GOP is many orders of magnitude more of a threat to this country compared to this balloon.

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tippenring Feb 4, 2023

@lauren I've been thinking this balloon is probably a college kids weather balloon experiment.

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Lauren Weinstein Feb 4, 2023

@tippenring With a payload the size of three school buses?

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MikeK Feb 4, 2023

@lauren @tippenring

The #balloon is the size of three buses, not the payload.🙂

Amateur radio guys are sending smaller ones round the world all the time.

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tippenring Feb 4, 2023

@mkarliner @lauren the balloon the "volume" of three buses makes much more sense than "payload."

Weather balloons expand tremendously as their altitude increases.

However, a payload volume of "three buses" must have very little mass. A balloon just can't carry very much weight.

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Lauren Weinstein Feb 4, 2023

@tippenring @mkarliner Also, think about this. Why would anyone use a comparison like "three school buses" for a round balloon? It makes much more sense that they're talking about what's below the balloon, and that's what the stories I've seen all say is being described -- the payload.

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tippenring

@lauren @mkarliner many size comparisons are irrational. Lol.

I read the Yahoo article you linked. It has some vagueness, but it implies that we know the payload is transmitting RF. I suppose that's probably pretty easy to determine, but I'd like a little more validation than "we heard it transmits RF."

I'm cynical that the Chinese want to spy on us with a balloon, or that it's any more of a risk, when they have so many other options that we ignore like satellites and American citizens.