Lauren WeinsteinFeb 4, 2023

You're going to be amazed at how quickly the Chinese balloon story drops out of the news (except by MAGA-land) as more information about it surfaces. Most of the ranting I've heard about it all day appears to be massively overblown on all counts, including claimed maneuverability, theoretical spying capabilities over those of a satellite, etc. There even seems to be a lack of absolute confirmation about the second balloon claimed to be over Latin or South America.

What's really going on isn't entirely clear, but for sure the GOP is many orders of magnitude more of a threat to this country compared to this balloon.

Show threadLE MurphyFeb 4, 2023

@lauren

Best commentator I've heard about it is that it's a big screw up for PRC. Furthermore, the US is going to score the equipment any day now and have their own instant Espionage boost. It's like handing over the passwords to their tech network.

Show threadLauren Weinstein
@VividConfusion I doubt very much that there will be much there of particular value over what's already known by the relevant agencies.
Feb 4, 2023 at 4:54amWeb
Show threadLE MurphyFeb 4, 2023

@lauren

Well, apparently, from the MSNBC commentator (US Senator someone), the US is behind on high altitude balloon spy surveillance. And it would give us a better idea of where they are on it. So info either way. And that it will likely be quietly retrieved in some nondestructive way. That the US State Dept trip to China probably won't happen until the balloon equipment is examined.

Show threadLauren WeinsteinFeb 4, 2023
@VividConfusion ProTip: Don't believe anything you hear from a politician about this stuff. The ones who say the most don't know what they're talking about, and the ones who do know the score aren't going to reveal it publicly. ProTip#2: Always publicly claim your surveillance capabilities are less than your adversaries, especially when they aren't.
Show threadLE MurphyFeb 4, 2023

@lauren

My first 10 yrs working was at Hanford Nuclear site during the end of the Cold War. I dealt with plutonium and uranium & had a Q Clearance. I know very well the Info Sec games we play.

I still agree with the commentator. Grab the thing and learn whatever we can from it. And we can always learn *something* even if it isn't obvious.

Show threadLauren WeinsteinFeb 4, 2023
@VividConfusion Oh indeed, always good to grab the stuff and if nothing else you get confirmation data points and sometimes learn something new. I just don't think it's going to be a big deal -- it's not a warp drive, after all. Hanford huh? I'm always impressed by anyone willing to deal with that kind of environment, because I most certainly never could or would.
Show threadLE MurphyFeb 4, 2023

@lauren

People might be surprised by what can be determined. For example, we might find out that they are using certain materials, indicating a shortage of materials used in higher tech. Or, maybe the analyses show that the materials originated in a country that we didn't know was supplying them with raw materials. Any info could be useful.

Show threadLauren WeinsteinFeb 4, 2023
@VividConfusion Yeah. On the other hand, there's also the possibility they assumed we'd get hold of it and analyze what we could, and have taken that into account in the first place. Spy vs. Spy.
Show threadLE MurphyFeb 4, 2023

@lauren

Nope. That's not compatible with the world view of the Chinese government. They have a very... umm.... self- confident and superior view of China over others. They would never willingly let anything even have the appearance of an error.

It's also why the news of SARS and COVID-19 were all slow and limited. It would make their gov look bad so they would never do it intentionally.

Show threadLauren WeinsteinFeb 4, 2023
@VividConfusion They're already claiming explicitly that the balloon "getting loose" is an error. So that ship has already sailed.
Show threadLE MurphyFeb 4, 2023

@lauren

Like i said, they would not do it intentionally. They were forced to acknowledge it by the cancelation of the SoS trip.