Gonna write this up in longer form, but folks complaining that the $45bn Ukraine costs are high miss two key points:
1. The direct costs in (US) military aid are surprisingly small; in the order of $19bn this year, and $10.8bn committed (so far) for next year
2. The indirect economic costs of the Russian war to the US economy (i.e. to the private sector not via the government) are in the order of $600-700bn per year. To pick a random company, it's nearly $6-10bn in costs to Apple *alone*.
In other words, if the US upped it's spend by, say, 25% and that reduced the length of the war by *just a whole week*, it would *make money*.
It's a good example of how the size of war economics harms get truly insane really quickly, and get you to unintuitive places about just how much of the war costs end up as indirect, rather than direct costs.
Or if you want it put another way, every American is spending in the order of $50 a year in direct lethal assistance to Ukraine, but losing about $1700 a year in indirect economic costs caused by that war.
If you had a company that sold a widget that upped a business cost from $50 to, let's say, $100, but doing so saved the customer $1700 a year, how quickly do you think VCs in Silicon Valley would jump in to invest in that widget?
Economic costs get into stratospheric numbers when you start looking at global dampening effects, and get really hard for the human brain to comprehend. So you end up having to do the translation into comprehendible numbers.
So if you want to put it another way, the indirect costs of the Ukraine war is equivalent to, say, 6 million American jobs a year.
How much would Congress pay in subsidies to get 6 million people into new jobs? Idk. But $45bn sounds super cheap at those scales.
Taking OECD numbers of the cost of the war at 3% of global GDP, give or take, and assuming that's uniformly spread globally, ending the war would *double* US GDP growth.
So why is the US investing only $10.8bn of lethal aid next year into getting that to happen sooner?
@[email protected] if we didn’t give any assistance to Ukraine the war would have been over much sooner, likely this spring. In fact isn’t the strategy here to bleed the Russians out? To turn it into a war of attrition for them?
Ignoring whether or not it's achievable, pushing the US out of the "golden billion", would mean reducing it's average salary by *60%*. That's not $1700 a year anymore. That's on the order of $56k per person.
So, yes, sure, you can give Putin everything he wants. But if you do, you also have to bother to listen to what he's saying: his long-term *explicit* goal, at its maximalist position, would cost the average American 60% of your personal income.
It comes up a lot that Americans get confused what the "American interests" in the Ukraine war actually are. But that's the basic part of it.
Ignoring morality or principles or practicalities entirely, and going solely by Putin's own statements and pure dollars, that's what the war's maximalist position was, and why throwing merely double-digit billions to prevent it is *absurdly* cheap at the price.
("Ignoring morality or principles or practicalities entirely")... one can also make lifelong friends by helping some in mortal need. That's got to mean *something*.
I agree 100% with the moral argument here and am glad that many countries have rallied to Ukraine's aid. My one slight reservation is the extent to which Ukraine's criminal fraternity represented a cyberthreat prior to the war - and how much worse that might be after the war, with all the assistance and upskilling.
On balance, I'd still say throw everything we've got at bringing this to an end. There are no winners in a prolonged war.
Side note: reports are emerging that Putin is seriously ill. I heard an unofficial report of this earlier in the year. What impact this will have on the course of the war remains to be seen.
@twipped @Pwnallthethings @SwiftOnSecurity
For sure, not forgetting the other recent inflationary pressures:
@darrenolivier Thanks, I didn't know that. Never hurts to be better informed :)
But yea, they'll make money either way out of this.
Folks in the US complaining about the costs of this really just don't understand what it could cost us (the whole thread above basically).
@kuxaku Only a pleasure.
Sorry, I didn’t mean for it to seem I was correcting you, that wasn’t my intention. EDA and the rest of the US’s assistance/disposal programmes are a bit niche and not something most people need to think or know about.
@darrenolivier Nope, all good. I know enough to be the ones my friends go to for answers, but that's about it 😀
The military industrial complex we've got in the US is a plague in my opinion (not the same as a country having self defense), but being accurate about it is important.
@kuxaku Thank you.
Yes, it provides value to the US in many areas but like any industry that powerful needs to be kept in check and its size, purpose, and activities closely monitored.
@JDN5IX @SwiftOnSecurity @Pwnallthethings
After two decades, the US couldn't even evict the Taliban from Afghanistan. And you think evicting Russia from Ukraine is a feasible goal? When Russia has nukes?
@MisuseCase @grumble209 @JDN5IX @SwiftOnSecurity @Pwnallthethings No one ever won against Afghani locals, and by mid-way through the US + coalition invasion Taliban were merged with the locals.
Also would highly recommend documentary film Bitter Lake by Adam Curtis, discusses Afghanistan extensively.
@MisuseCase @JDN5IX @SwiftOnSecurity @Pwnallthethings
My point is that the US military seems unable to convert success in battles to achieving geopolitical goals.
I am not convinced that Putin would concede defeat before launching an ICBM or two. Is that a price the US should pay to help Ukraine?
I'm not seeing huge domestic support, especially as this drags on.
@grumble209 @JDN5IX @SwiftOnSecurity @Pwnallthethings It’s not the U.S. military in this case, it’s the Ukrainian military.
And “let’s just concede to him what he wants, otherwise he’ll get very angry, besides he won’t possibly escalate after this” didn’t work with the last guy who decided he was entitled to large chunks of Europe.
@MisuseCase @JDN5IX @SwiftOnSecurity @Pwnallthethings
I never advocated conceding. I hope Ukraine continues to fight, and I hope lots of US citizens who feel strongly about it support Ukraine directly with blood and treasure.
That's different from conceding, and it's different than the US government waging a proxy war which will doubtless cost us a lot in Russian / Chinese blowback even if it doesn't escalate directly.
It's not conceding to believe that regardless of the duration and outcome of the fighting in Ukraine, Putin has succeeded in creating a wasteland on his border that will last a decade.
@grumble209 @SwiftOnSecurity @Pwnallthethings
We invaded both of those countries - we have nukes
- we did not succeed in our mission.
russia invaded Ukraine
- russia has nukes (although it is questionable that they have been maintained properly)
- russia will not succeed
- russia will also be ousted from Georgia.
Fighting a conflict from the perspective of the invader vs the perspective of fighting for your home are two very different things.
Insurgents have the historical advantage, afaik, given the minuscule reading I have done on the topic.
@JDN5IX @SwiftOnSecurity @Pwnallthethings
When the US invaded Afghanistan, our global rivals didn't overtly jump in to make a proxy war. Had China or Russia supported the Taliban the way the US is supporting Ukraine, shit would have hit the fan.
That's why I'd prefer the US to at least STFU about arming Ukraine, let alone watching our domestic war profiteers wrapping themselves in a blue and yellow flag to pretend they aren't greedy monsters feeding off death.
@JDN5IX @SwiftOnSecurity @Pwnallthethings where's the part showing US military spending is shortening the war?
US and UK purposefully derailing any diplomacy seems to show that isn't the objective.
@matty @SwiftOnSecurity @Pwnallthethings
While there are certainly as many different perspectives on this topic as there are people looking at it, in my opinion, an unprovoked war of aggression should not be rewarded with a diplomatic solution, as this invites further unprovoked aggression by the petulant child to further the aims of their wants.
We have history to consult when it comes to the question of appeasing an aggressive power.
The Budapest Memorandum was broken by russia. At the risk of sounding like a simpleton, it’s really that easy; and the fact that from the onset putin has lied, shifted his reasoning, etc shows bad faith.
His actions are indefensible, the actions of his military are criminal, and there really is no other way to spin the situation.
If you’ve come to make an argument, that’s about as much of a rebuttal as you’re going to get from me - there really is no point in further discussion, my opinion won’t be swayed.
If russia wants an end to the conflict they can stop lobbing artillery into civilian areas, leave the borders of Ukraine as recognized prior to February 2014, and stand trial for war crimes.
It’s a short list.
@matty @SwiftOnSecurity @Pwnallthethings
You absolutely have the right to hold that opinion 🤙😎
@SwiftOnSecurity @Pwnallthethings it's better than that! The assumption was always that of that equipment had to be used to destroy the Russian army, it would be because we were royally screwed, and the expectation was that a lot of our men would die using that equipment.
As cynical as it sounds, having *someone else. * use your equipment to destroy the Russian tanks for you, is an amazing deal. You don't have to worry about your guys coming home in caskets!
Having seen what many VC's want to do to the world...
They'd find a way to reclaim most of the $1700.
Yes because the crazy people building doomsday bunkers across the globe to hide in while the world burns, from actions they set into motion, are the best people.
Having to explain the economic value of helping people STAY ALIVE to get people to decide its the right thing to do pretty much sums up the things that are wrong in the world.
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