Conrad Hackett 
2017: "Six reasons Mastodon won't survive: Terrible name, there is no single Mastodon, toots, handles are meaningless, where is everyone, apps feel like a science project."
- @Lance_Ulanoff in Mashable https://mashable.com/article/mastodon-wont-survive
Six reasons Mastodon won't survive

The hot new thing in social media has some big problems.

Mashable
Dec 1, 2022 at 7:24pmWeb
Show threadPaul KedroskyDec 1, 2022
@conradhackett I hope it never replaces Twitter. It can, however, be its own thing, with its own utility, separate from the soap operatic morass over there.
Show threadthenullray 🪤Dec 1, 2022
@conradhackett #noliestold
Show threadGrant 🇺🇦ArmUkraine🇺🇦Dec 1, 2022
@conradhackett It's online social interaction EVOLVED! 
Show threadBarbaraKB in MichiganDec 1, 2022
@conradhackett wow. pretty big prediction coming from you. For me, it’s replacing time at Facebook and TikTok, not Twitter. But… maybe it will?
Show threadlakeladyDec 1, 2022
@barbarakb did you read the graphic?
Show threadBarbaraKB in MichiganDec 1, 2022
@lakelady um… sure.
Show threadJay CheroskeDec 2, 2022
@lakelady @barbarakb he’s not making the prediction. He’s mocking it.
Show threadBarbaraKB in MichiganDec 2, 2022
@jcheroske @lakelady and predicting it will make that chart like other “predictions.” it won’t. Mastodon is great… but not *that* great 😝
Show threadJay CheroskeDec 2, 2022
@lakelady @barbarakb It could be the thing that ends the era of big corporate social media. I’ve felt dirty for 15 years, using services like Facebook and Twitter. I quit FB a few years ago, and now I’m off Twitter. I can’t be the only one who’s realizing just how much healthier this platform feels now that I’m no longer ground meat being sold to advertisers.
Show threadBarbaraKB in MichiganDec 2, 2022
@jcheroske @lakelady independent and self-built actually built the internet. mastodon isn’t a unique venture. it’s always been here. and there are huge issues with it just as there with corporate, ad-sponsored ones. people go where it’s easy and where they’re able to create and be heard. I’m glad you enjoy it here.
Show threadPaulina Dec 1, 2022
@conradhackett
It’ll get better than Twitter
Show threadStephen GilbertDec 1, 2022
@conradhackett As someone who's been working in IT for the Newspaper industry since '96, that last one hits hard. Very true, but hard. :)
Show threadMelody SchreiberDec 1, 2022
@conradhackett terrible name??
Show threadTexas ObserverDec 1, 2022
@conradhackett @Lance_Ulanoff poor Cliff Stoll lol! His book "The Cuckoo's Egg" is a great read though :)
Show threadDCrockerDec 1, 2022
@conradhackett @Lance_Ulanoff Your assessment certainly is correct. After all, email has the same issues and, as we've seen, it's never been useful.
Show threadPedro SilvaDec 1, 2022
@conradhackett happened many times before, recently, and will happen again.
I think it's a question of time.
The funny thing would be if it implodes from the inside, not due to strong competition.
Show threadBlake LeonardDec 1, 2022
@conradhackett "handles are meaningless"-- I beg to differ; even from the start, it was a sign of interest in some subjects. Nowadays, handles on official domains exist (i.e. the EU Commission and the German government), and serve as trustable verification.
Show threadPaul VierkantDec 1, 2022

@Lance_Ulanoff @conradhackett

#friendlyReminder:
#Twitter regards its users as customers.
#Mastodon regards its users as human beings.

Show threadDamien ScullyDec 2, 2022
@paul4kant @Lance_Ulanoff @conradhackett Not sure Twitter regards users as customers, more #assets to extract value from. Much as poultry farmers regard chickens.
Show threadPaul VierkantDec 2, 2022
@conradhackett @DazzlingDamo @Lance_Ulanoff true. We are the asset. 🐔 🍗
Show threadR. L. Dane  Dec 1, 2022

@conradhackett @Lance_Ulanoff

#AgedLikeMilk

Show threadBilly DDec 1, 2022
@conradhackett @Lance_Ulanoff Mastodon’s new tag line….
“Mastodon, surviving since 2016”
Show threadJohnWDec 1, 2022
@conradhackett @Lance_Ulanoff I see Lance is still here, but I couldn't find William Shatner. 😅
Show threadShaneLeeDec 1, 2022
@conradhackett @Lance_Ulanoff Mastodon is here to stay - your welcome to leave as it’s not to your liking
Show threadteledyn 𓂀Dec 1, 2022

@conradhackett

"Det er vanskeligt at spaa, især naar det gælder Fremtiden."

(It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.)

#danishproverb #alsoNielsBohr

Show threadNormal GuyDec 1, 2022
@conradhackett @Lance_Ulanoff Ha ha ha…just like someone predicted that Tesla’s market value will reach $4 Trillion (with a T, mind you)!🤣🤣🤣
Show threadYet Water Was Dec 1, 2022

@conradhackett @Lance_Ulanoff

See also:

"We don't like your boys' sound. Groups of guitars are on their way out" Dick Rowe, Decca Records on rejecting the Beatles

Show threadFries AndersenDec 1, 2022
@conradhackett @Lance_Ulanoff I’m in IT, and it took me a while to understand how this thing works. The developers need to make it easier. Look at Linux vs OS X. Linux is great, but OS X is idiot proof. #twitter #mastodon
Show threadTor Iver WilhelmsenDec 1, 2022
@conradhackett @Lance_Ulanoff Frankly I am more surprised Mashable is still around...
Show threadKara ShallenbergDec 1, 2022
@conradhackett @Lance_Ulanoff @tafkak lol. That author is dumb af. I’m a little old lady, for crying out loud, and I got the hang of it within an hour.
Show threadKara ShallenbergDec 1, 2022
@conradhackett @Lance_Ulanoff @tafkak i wonder if he’ll write an “I was wrong” article like this one https://escapingtech.com/tech/opinions/i-was-wrong-about-mastodon-moderation.html
I Was Wrong About Mastodon – EscapingTech

I said that Mastodon moderation wouldn't scale, it does. The cultural differences will likely continue to maintain a friendlier atmosphere regardless of size.

Show threadDarren ShepherdDec 1, 2022
@conradhackett @Lance_Ulanoff Seems like a pompous numpty, to me, but ah well (blech!)…
Show threadThe REAL fradie 💚☕💻🤎🏳️‍🌈Dec 2, 2022
@conradhackett @Lance_Ulanoff
If you switch to Linux after 25 years of Windows, you shouldn't expect Windows - it has to be a bit of manual work. If you're moving from Twitter to Mastodon, don't expect Twitter. You should do something with it, then everything is very simple. I also have criticism, but you are welcome to make suggestions to improve Mastodon.
Show threadThe REAL fradie 💚☕💻🤎🏳️‍🌈Dec 2, 2022
@conradhackett @Lance_Ulanoff
You won't find the freedoms that exist here on #Muskodon, there are also no algorithms, the best. Treat topics / people preferentially or block them. The only disadvantage of the fact that there are so many instances is that you can't hang around on every server, but the contacts can be reached on all instances. The more participate, the better.
Show threadbarefootliamDec 2, 2022
@conradhackett @Lance_Ulanoff https://www.fromoldbooks.org/Various-LeisureHour-1904/pages/0617-A-Vision-of-the-future/
#FailedPredicion
A Vision of the Future

A vision of a car of the future from May 1905. Amusingly, the two ladies in the passenger compartment are dressed in costume of the period, and appear to be paying no attention to driving: presumably

Show thread⇐∗∗⇒ Jean-Luc - POI I7FI ✅Dec 2, 2022

@conradhackett @Lance_Ulanoff

There's this not so dark follow-up by Lance Ulanoff you might be interested in.
https://www.techradar.com/opinion/as-we-bury-twitter-its-time-to-dig-up-mastodon

As we bury Twitter, it's time to dig up Mastodon

Opinion: Twitter is teetering, prepare to Toot

TechRadar
Show threada1Dec 2, 2022
@conradhackett has for me. 😁
Show threadElon MuschgDec 2, 2022
@conradhackett @Lance_Ulanoff Perhaps for once an idea will not become only a new comercial hype.
Just stay at what it is thought to be, a communication tool.
Show threadEd SandersDec 2, 2022
@conradhackett @Lance_Ulanoff This is a right of passage for long term winners. Honestly, it’s, in it’s time, correct. The (large scale) world and Mastodon weren’t ready for each other in 2017. Times change.
Show threadBrian DearDec 3, 2022
@conradhackett @Lance_Ulanoff Wait, Mashable still exists? Thought that went away like Technorati and O’Reilly Web2.0 conferrnces…
Show threadunpopular counselorDec 3, 2022
@conradhackett @Lance_Ulanoff communication will continue to advance from technology. More people have a cell phone now than ever. Televisions are common in nearly every household. Antenna television has advanced from satellites and wired towers. I am grateful for finding Mastodon recently. Maybe the algorithm of this platform meshes well with my content.
Show threadberkes 🐝 🚐 🏄 🌱Dec 7, 2022

@conradhackett @Lance_Ulanoff while funny and insightfull, we do have to see how survivership bias plays a large role here.

For every "then predicted fad that went along and revolutionized society" there were probably a hundred "fads" that actually were fads.