What the #USA learnt from 40+ years of #war in #Afghanistan: let's replicate the experiment on the eastern border of the EU.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/08/us/politics/us-sanctions-russia-ukraine.html

#nt

U.S. Details Possible Sanctions on Russia Over a Ukraine Invasion

The Biden administration and its allies are developing new possible sanctions ahead of a series of meetings to defuse the crisis with Moscow.

Imagine if France planned to support an armed insurgency in Canada, or China in Mexico. What would the NYT write?
U.S. Considers Backing an Insurgency in Ukraine

Conversations about supporting Ukrainian insurgents in the event of a Russian invasion has revived the specter of a new Cold War.

First step: prepare the ground to brand as illegitimate any government opposing USA involvement. Where have I heard this before?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/20/us-russia-ukraine-government-sanctions
US accuses Russia of conspiring to take over Ukraine government

Treasury imposes sanctions on four current and former Ukraine government officials it says involved in alleged conspiracy

The Guardian

«Mi-17 transport helicopters originally meant for use in #Afghanistan [are going] to #Ukraine instead.»
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/23/russian-ships-tanks-and-troops-on-the-move-to-ukraine-as-peace-talks-stall

How convenient that surplus weapons find another destination so quickly after one war (ostensibly) ends.

Russian ships, tanks and troops on the move to Ukraine as peace talks stall

With negotiations deadlocked, Moscow is continuing to build up its military forces for a possible invasion

The Guardian

Madeleine Albright also envisions a new #Afghanistan in #Ukraine, with more military supplies from the USA.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/22/us/politics/russia-biden-sanctions-ukraine.html

#war #NATO

Will Biden’s Sanctions Halt a Russian Invasion of Ukraine?

President Vladimir V. Putin has learned from earlier U.S.-led sanctions, and his allies could benefit from a more isolated Russia.

#IMF in #Ukraine. I wonder how long until they become as popular as the troika in Greece.
https://www.reuters.com/business/imf-starts-discussions-ukraine-next-tranche-disbursement-2022-02-23/
IMF starts discussions in Ukraine for next tranche disbursement

The mission of the International Monetary Fund is starting its work in Ukraine for the second review of the Fund-supported programme, the global lender said on Wednesday.

Reuters

Rally 'round the ☮️ flag effect at home.

#war #Ukraine

Compare and contrast.

"peaceful entry of coalition forces to eliminate weapons" [1]

"military operations to disarm" [2]

"special military operation [...] to demilitarise" [3]

#war #Ukraine #Iraq

[1] https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2003/03/20030317-7.html
[2] https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2003/03/20030319-17.html
[3] http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67843

President Says Saddam Hussein Must Leave Iraq Within 48 Hours

<a href="/news/releases/2003/03/20030317-iraq.v.smil"></a>President Bush Monday said,"The United Nations Security Council has not lived up to its responsibilities, so we will rise to ours."

«#Putin deliberately frames his operation in #Ukraine in the same way that the United States has framed its own regime-change operations in #Kosovo, #Iraq and #Libya, charging that Ukraine has committed human rights violations and is a terrorist state.»
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/08/russia-ukraine-war-possible-trajectories
I’ve studied the possible trajectories of the Russia-Ukraine war. None are good

There are two likely paths: continued escalation, potentially across the nuclear threshold, or a bitter peace imposed on a defeated Ukraine

The Guardian
«If there's just 1% chance for us to stop this #war, I think that we need to take this chance. We need to do that. I can tell you about the result of this negotiations — in any case, we are losing people on a daily basis, innocent people on the ground [...] unfortunately, our dignity is not going to preserve the lives. So, I think we have to use any format, any chance in order to have a possibility of negotiating».
https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-20-22/h_12a9e3fa87cba15cdb904a35e8926b9e
March 20, 2022 Russia-Ukraine news

US officials confirmed to CNN that Russia launched hypersonic missiles against Ukraine last week, the first known use of such missiles in combat.

CNN

«I had to use force to get them out. I lied to them, whatever I could think of, I said ‘there’s hot food waiting for you, electricity, mobile phone signal’ I lied and I’m not ashamed. I believe that the people I got out are in less danger than they were inside the city».
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/21/some-were-too-scared-to-leave-the-man-who-rescued-25-people-from-devastated-mariupol

About lies in #Ukraine and difficult decisions in a #war.

‘Some were too scared to leave’: the man who rescued 25 people from devastated Mariupol

Roman Kruglyakov describes trying to convince residents of the bombed-out Ukrainian city to leave their shelters to evacuate

The Guardian

Just the other day I was reading #Popper on #Plato and #truth vs. #lies.

«The problem whether or not a good end justifies bad means seems to arise out of such cases as whether one should lie to a sick man in order to set his mind at rest ; or whether one should keep a people in ignorance in order to make them happy ; or whether one should begin a long and bloody civil #war in order to establish a world of peace and beauty.»

https://archive.org/details/opensocietyitsen0001popp_n9a8/page/286/mode/2up

The open society and its enemies : Popper, Karl R. (Karl Raimund), 1902-1994 : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive

volumes 22 cm

Internet Archive
The irresistible American classic, #RegimeChange abroad, soon released in a (#war) theater near you. From the producers of #Iran, #Cuba, #Venezuela, #Syria and more currently screening worldwide.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/26/biden-butcher-putin-cannot-be-allowed-to-stay-in-power
Biden: ‘butcher’ Putin cannot be allowed to stay in power

West must prepare for a long fight ahead, President says, as Russian missiles hit Lviv in act of defiance

The Guardian
White House says Biden is not calling for regime change in Russia

U.S. President Joe Biden was not calling for regime change in Russia when he said on Saturday that Russian President Vladimir Putin "cannot remain in power," a White House official said.

Reuters

#Biden: «Over the last 30 years, the forces of autocracy have revived all across the globe.»
https://web.archive.org/web/20250118183232/https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/03/26/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-united-efforts-of-the-free-world-to-support-the-people-of-ukraine/

I wonder what changed 30 years ago and who might have had something to do with it. 🧐

Remarks by President Biden on the United Efforts of the Free World to Support the People of Ukraine | The White House

The Royal Castle in WarsawWarsaw, Poland 6:16 P.M. CETTHE PRESIDENT:  Thank you, thank you, thank you.  Please, if you have a seat, be

The White House

«Orbán’s stance on the #war has left #Hungary increasingly isolated among its western allies but has proved popular among voters, especially those in rural areas.»
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/03/viktor-orban-expected-to-win-big-majority-in-hungarian-general-election

#Ukraine

Viktor Orbán wins fourth consecutive term as Hungary’s prime minister

Rightwinger and Putin ally aims dig at Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy after Fidesz party claims another super majority

The Guardian

Easter celebrations were banished from #Ukraine media (they "chose not to do a live transmission on the prayer, as they have traditionally done").
https://cruxnow.com/vatican/2022/04/as-pope-extols-peace-ukrainian-and-russian-women-carry-the-cross-together

It's always the other side that lives in a communications bubble, as we're regularly informed.

As pope extols peace, Ukrainian and Russian women carry the cross together

Though the Way of the Cross is a 14-stations meditation on Jesus’ Passion, the attention of many was on the 13th station, when a Ukrainian and a Russian woman together carried the cross, despite an uproar among many Ukrainians. 

Crux

"Much has been said about the Russian shelling of Ukrainian towns. [...] The danger to civilians is no different under the barrels of Ukrainian artillery".

Who knew.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/18/world/europe/ukraine-forces-cluster-munitions.html

To Push Back Russians, Ukrainians Hit a Village With Cluster Munitions

The New York Times verified that Ukraine’s forces appeared to fire at least two of these internationally banned weapons in a neighborhood, putting Ukrainian civilians at extreme risk.

The New York Times

«Ukrainian forces set fire to grain fields around Mariupol so they could not be “stolen by the occupiers”, Sergiy Bratchuk, a spokesman for the Odesa regional military administration said».

Apparently this is what you do these days to prove you care about local farmers and global food security.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/30/volodymyr-zelenskiy-orders-evacuation-of-donetsk-region

Volodymyr Zelenskiy urges hundreds of thousands to evacuate Donetsk region

Ukrainian president says ‘the more people leave Donetsk region now, the fewer people the Russian army will have time to kill’

The Guardian

3 G$ for USA #war industries, to replace the stockpiles sent to the scrapyard, ahem, frontlines.

«None of that equipment will arrive for months, if not years.» But shareholders need support now, and they'll get it.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/24/biden-billions-ukraine-defense-russia-00053635

Biden pumps billions into the long war in Ukraine

But don’t expect to see new weapons on the battlefield anytime soon.

POLITICO
The "Togliatti-Odessa pipeline" sounds like some obscure communist policy of the 1950s but it's actually a major infrastructure of the global fossilagrochem industry, currently in the news due to #energy and #ammonia prices.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/un-proposed-ammonia-deal-ukraine-would-stabilise-grain-deal-diplomat-2022-09-13/
https://tass.com/politics/1509021
https://tass.com/politics/1509019
UN trying to get Russian ammonia to world through Ukraine

The United Nations is trying to broker a resumption of Russian ammonia exports through Ukraine, a Western diplomat said on Tuesday, a move that could stabilize a landmark deal allowing Ukrainian food and fertilizer shipments from Black Sea ports.

Reuters
Neoliberal western capitalism is already sending the bill for its "support", after the #IMF prepared the ground in February.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/04/ukraine-must-revamp-labour-laws-and-step-up-privatisation-to-fix-economy
Ukraine ‘must revamp labour laws and step up privatisation to fix economy’

President’s economic adviser says country must speed up reform of industries after Russia’s invasion

The Guardian
Russia-Ukraine war: Ukraine restricts power use; ‘abundant evidence’ Russia using Iranian drones, says US – live

Ukrainians prepare for hours-long power outages; US, UK and France say Iranian-supplied drones used to strike civilians

the Guardian
Europe Racks Up $700 Billion Energy Tab as Budgets Strain

European Union governments have pledged more than 550 billion euros ($536 billion) to protect citizens and businesses from soaring energy costs over the past year, highlighting the enormous fiscal burden the bloc’s leaders face as they jostle over how to pay for it.

Bloomberg
Today in totally unexpected #war news: «Finland's National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) said it has information that criminals in Finland have captured military arms, such as assault rifles, destined for Ukraine.»
https://yle.fi/news/3-12670239
NBI: Arms sent to Ukraine in criminal hands

The National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) says some weapons donated by countries to Ukraine are in the hands of criminals in Finland.

News
NATO countries must ramp up arms production for battles ahead, Ukraine says

Foreign minister tells POLITICO without such effort, ‘we won’t be able to win — as simple as that.’

POLITICO

Top EU "diplomat" boasting a military uniform.

#war #EUMAM

A lot is going on here.

How to to find the truth behind #war propaganda? The Guardian: this state is an ally of our state (aka "free") so what they say is likely true.

Oh silly me, I thought it would be harder than that.

Former PM boasts about getting his country involved in a #war against the will of his parliamentary majority and without even telling his own cabinet. This is democracy within #NATO.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/18/bulgaria-secretly-supplied-ukraine-fuel-ammunition-first-months-war-russia
Bulgaria secretly supplied Ukraine fuel and ammunition in early months of war

Former PM tells of crucial operation, which was launched covertly due to pro-Russia sympathies in political class

The Guardian

«Tank maker #Rheinmetall raises sales view, asks Berlin for firm orders».
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/tank-maker-rheinmetall-raises-sales-view-ukraine-war-boosts-demand-2023-01-24/

«Sales of #USA military equipment to foreign governments rose 49% to $205.6 billion in the latest fiscal year».
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-arms-exports-up-11-fiscal-2022-official-says-2023-01-25/

#Zeitenwende #war

Tank maker Rheinmetall raises sales view, asks Berlin for firm orders

German defence group Rheinmetall on Tuesday raised its sales expectations for 2025 on higher demand for weapons due to the war in Ukraine and called on Berlin to speed up planned big orders and make good on a pledge to boost its armed forces.

Reuters

«Ukraine had withdrawn from its libraries 19m copies of #books by last November that came either from the Soviet era or were in Russian, a senior lawmaker has said.»

«It was not immediately clear what happened to the withdrawn books.»

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/feb/07/russia-ukraine-war-live-updates-moscow-moves-troops-into-eastern-ukraine-ahead-of-new-offensive-luhansk-governor-says

Kyiv claims last 24 hours was deadliest day of conflict for Russian troops – as it happened

Ukraine’s military makes unverified claim that number of Russian military to die in conflict has risen by 1,030 in last day

the Guardian

Top #EU "diplomat" allegedly stated he's working for the #war to not be over.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/19/ukraine-war-over-unless-eu-boosts-military-support-says-top-diplomat

The EEAS version of the speech, in text and social media video, doesn't contain the word "over". Did the press invent that part?
https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/munich-security-conference-speech-high-representativevice-president-josep-borrell-european_en
https://nitter.lacontrevoie.fr/JosepBorrellF/status/1627376364184813569#m

Borrell did state that the EU is "using coercion" and "becoming a hard power" and that it will target "partners in the South to make them participate" [in said use of coercion].

Ukraine war ‘over’ unless EU boosts military support, says top diplomat

Foreign affairs chief tells Munich security conference provision of ammunition has to be solved quickly

The Guardian
European diplomacy in such a sad state, that the task of coming up with a 12-paragraph list of (former) banalities, little more than a word cloud from post-WWII treaties and statements (like "nuclear wars must not be fought" and "security of a country should not be pursued at the expense of others"), was left to China.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202302/1286152.shtml
China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis - Global Times

Even the #ECB top brass now points out how convenient the #war sanctions have been for some: «Workers have so far borne the brunt of the "Putin tax", suffering a large loss of real income while, on balance, firms' mark-ups remained stable or even increased in some sectors».
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2023/html/ecb.sp230216~a297a41feb.en.html
Monetary policy after the energy shock

The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank of the 19 European Union countries which have adopted the euro. Our main task is to maintain price stability in the euro area and so preserve the purchasing power of the single currency.

European Central Bank

While in Italy the press is busy with the trope of the "fake pacifist", The Guardian openly writes about pacifism as something to be dropped.

«Scholz has gone a long way to move Germany [away] from a position of pacifist neutrality». (Reporter uncritically adopts USA position on whether this is a good thing, praises the government's will to ignore the popular majority.)

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/03/joe-biden-meet-olaf-scholz-keep-ukraine-strategies-aligned

Joe Biden meets Olaf Scholz in effort to keep Ukraine strategies aligned

German chancellor’s working visit to the White House focuses on continuing support for Kyiv

The Guardian
Amazing. Pentagon admits, through the NYT, that they can't use the International Criminal Court to prosecute #war crimes in Ukraine, because otherwise the USA would be next in line for a trial.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/08/pentagon-international-criminal-court-russia-war-crimes

«European ammunition maker says plant expansion hit by energy-guzzling TikTok site: Norwegian group Nammo blames "storage of cat videos" for threatening its growth».
https://www.ft.com/content/f85aa254-d453-4542-a50e-fa1171971ab0

You know your business is in trouble when you need to pick a fight with Big Kitten to justify your failure to plan for an #EnergyCrisis.

Personally I'm not sure who contributes the most to national security and peace: cute viral cats or weapon manufacturers?

European ammunition maker says plant expansion hit by energy-guzzling TikTok site

Norwegian group Nammo blames ‘storage of cat videos’ for threatening its growth as data centre corners spare electricity

Bloomberg News admits that sometimes to end a #war you need «some of the external powers that fed the conflict with money and arms [to switch to] talks to put a permanent end to the fighting». Now imagine if we realised this *before* having hundreds of thousands of civilians dead, millions of people displaced etc.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-05/syria-peace-talks-what-s-at-stake-for-assad-turkey-s-erdogan-russia-and-us
Why Efforts to End Syria War Have Gained New Impetus

After more than a decade of war in Syria, some of the external powers that fed the conflict with money and arms are in talks to put a permanent end to the fighting. Turkey, which backed Syrian rebels trying to topple President Bashar al-Assad, appears to have accepted that he can’t be defeated as long as he has Russian backing. And Gulf states that had spurned Assad are offering to welcome him back into the club of Arab leaders and encouraging him to make peace with Turkey. It’s a frustrating tu

Bloomberg

When we do #nuclear sharing, it's freedom. When the others do it, it's vassaldom.

Always priceless NYT.
https://web.archive.org/web/20230622124554/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/22/world/europe/belarus-russia-lukashenko.html

Belarus Is Fast Becoming a ‘Vassal State’ of Russia

Allowing Moscow to place tactical nuclear weapons on its soil is just the latest sign of its loss of sovereignty to the Kremlin, military experts and pro-democracy activists say.

The New York Times
Sending cluster bombs into a quagmire proves that at best we care about supporting an allied *state*, but certainly not about the *people* under it, human rights, or war crimes. Even those who supported the Iraq #war draw a line.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/10/the-guardian-view-on-supplying-cluster-bombs-not-just-a-difficult-decision-but-the-wrong-one
The Guardian view on supplying cluster bombs: not just a ‘difficult’ decision, but the wrong one

Editorial: The US is to transfer the devastating weapons to Ukraine. Kyiv is in a desperate struggle – but Joe Biden should not have approved this

The Guardian

«Šefčovič laid out a vision for Ukraine to be a major supplier of the critical minerals and products needed for a green overhaul of the EU economy as well as a strategic store of natural gas.»
https://www.politico.eu/article/frans-timmermans-quit-eu-climate-chief-return-dutch-politics/

I'm glad we're wasting no time admitting we're in it in the hope of some nice colonialism.

Timmermans to quit as EU climate czar as he returns to Dutch politics

The Green Deal commissioner was chosen to lead a left-wing alliance in the Netherlands’ November election.

POLITICO

It's whoopsie week in #war PR land.

A #NATO wannabe accidentally cheers an SS volunteer, a NATO expansionist accidentally does business with the alleged enemy.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/25/canadas-house-speaker-apologises-after-praising-ukrainian-veteran-who-fought-for-nazis
https://news.err.ee/1609078387/kaja-kallas-scandal-the-story-so-far

#Kallas #Estonia

Canada’s house speaker apologises after praising Ukrainian veteran of Nazi unit

Jewish groups voice anger over standing ovation for Yaroslav Hunka, 98, after Volodymyr Zelenskiy speech

The Guardian
Only one #war at a time can get frontpage coverage in western media (40+ wars involving brown people need not apply) but luckily some war leaders are more adept than others at riding the main narrative of the day.
In case you're concerned about a #war killing hundreds of civilians a day, the NYT carries the regular industry reminder that this is actually "Lots of good news out there" (#Raytheon) and "a moment of opportunity" (USA State Department).
https://web.archive.org/web/20231018012931/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/17/us/politics/israel-gaza-global-arms-sales.html
Israel-Hamas War Adds to Surge in Global Weapons Sales

Israel’s conflict with Hamas, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the rise of China have brought a boom for weapons makers and a chance for Washington to build closer military ties to other countries.

The New York Times

Unilateral "sanctions" make the #fossil fuel industry even more wasteful, while the well-connected privatize the formerly public profits: «about $11 billion is going into what might be called a delivery spread. Some of that will represent legitimate shipping costs, but almost all of it goes through anonymous traders or unknown shipping companies.»
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-12-06/oil-prices-how-russia-punched-an-11-billion-hole-in-west-s-sanctions-regime

#EnergyCrisis

Oil Prices: How Russia Punched an $11 Billion Hole in West's Sanctions Regime

Moscow’s monthly income from oil exports is greater now than before the invasion of Ukraine, highlighting the failure of measures to curb its war chest.

Bloomberg