[This post contains an error in the number of Twitter users. Check the new one here: https://mastodon.social/@estebanmoro/109302968305953555 ] Something big is happening in Mastodon over the weekend. Here is my graph, updated. Right now Mastodon is growing ~3 times faster than Twitter.
@estebanmoro just wait until Elon starts disparaging it.
@gerwitz @estebanmoro or until you can’t change your name to “Elon Musk”
@gerwitz @estebanmoro are you implying that once E starts crapping on Mastodon that people will stop trying it out?
@jjm3x3 @estebanmoro the opposite; awareness will spike
@estebanmoro it seemed to have happened a lot sooner than I expected
@estebanmoro wait a few days, so the impact of all the unverified verified Elons, election officials, celebrities, and elected officials hits.

@estebanmoro also, I wonder how much the mastodon growth has been suppressed by people trying to join, and finding the instances they try to join closed.

I’ve seen a few people saying that they *tried* to join mastodon and couldn’t because it was closed — the subtleties of multiple instances and needing to select one and so on seems a little daunting at first. At least for those of us who’ve not had to think about in when singing up for FB or Twitter, etc.

@McPatrick Yes, the sign-in process is not trivial. That creates a lot of friction for the normal user. This is why I feel a lot of bias towards tech+academia in Mastodon. Hopefully, other groups will come in the end if the process gets easier.
@estebanmoro @McPatrick It doesn't help that the memes already on Twitter about people explaining how Mastodon works are partly true, the instructions most people get make it sound MUCH more "techie" than it is.
@estebanmoro @McPatrick indeed. Friendly error messages instead of "403" or "forbidden" would help a lot. Now I'm here it looks more promising than I expected. 😃 Really hope it gains more traction as an open source, decentralised model for critical stuff is much nicer😱

@grenelliot as a former tech writer, I am *not* going to disagree.

<side eyes the engineers and programmers>

@McPatrick I'm a programmer. Feeling your eyes burning into me 😂

@grenelliot 😆

I often described my role as translating from geek to English.

Dude, no — no one other than maybe another engineer is going to just naturally imagine that to reboot the damned thing you press the two outermost buttons. It’s not obvious. You have to tell me that so I can explain it to them.

And the classified presentation docs from a real rocket scientist, where he returned the draft marked up in crayon.

Love you guys. Most of my family and many friends are you folks. And…

@McPatrick @estebanmoro I've found it a bit obtuse and there really aren't many servers to jump in on, but that may allow the post quality to remain high and work against some of the toxicity that plagues venues like twitter/reddit/facebook. May also make it easier on the moderators.
Here's hoping!

@McPatrick @estebanmoro

Yes. I tried yesterday to join #mastadon and bounced hard. (I've been on the WWW since we got a personal domain in 1993. I am retired from a telecom IT job.) This morning I found a server and tried again successfully. I've been reading cheat sheets and trying not to be too annoying.

@McPatrick @estebanmoro I agree, I am trying to make another account to replace my twitter handle. Even though I am already using Mastodon, I had trouble finding an instance to use.

I like their instance finder, but they should have more filters, or a pick for me. The first problem is that the one I chose, told me that it is a paid instance after I made the account. I do not mind donating, but I do not want to run the risk of my account being held hostage if there is a tight month or I forget.

@Casinoslcohol whereas I realize I probably didn’t know enough to know enough to make an informed decision, really. I signed in here so that I was somewhere. And I will en\other find a way for it to serendipitously “the right choice,” or I’ll move.

With mastodon dynamics, a professional account might make sense. Maybe. Not in a rush!

@McPatrick @estebanmoro It's prohibitively difficult for some people (especially some disabled people, tech newbies, etc.) to join Mastodon.

I would have given up trying, had I not been annoyed enough with Elon. I have over 13K followers on Twitter, but I just don't have the appetite to spend so much time there now.

@McPatrick @estebanmoro
There should be a sort of load balancer which redirects registration requests/Website requests from mastodon.social towards a set of public servers
@estebanmoro a daily Twitter vs daily Mastodon comparison would be quite interesting as welll
@juhariis AFAIK Twitter does not publish or allow access to that daily data. The best I know is this data from their quarterly reports: https://www.statista.com/statistics/970920/monetizable-daily-active-twitter-users-worldwide/
@estebanmoro of course.. :(.. wondering if there was some kind of proxy that could be used to infer that with some confidence boundaries... But perhaps the Elno effect is more about a sizable (?) portion of existing Twitter accounts tweeting less often and then fading away.. In any case there are many many newbies in Mastodon (like me)
@estebanmoro Plus I believe we have it on the record from the CEO of Twitter that many of the accounts there are bots.

@estebanmoro

Wonderful to see.

The twit has overplayed his hand and it will be delicious to see him fail spectacularly.

@estebanmoro

Very cool! Is your data set open source?

I would love to play with it.

@estebanmoro A percentage of the account creations will be reactionary. Time will tell.
@estebanmoro
it's over 5x better. The CEO is 100x better.
@estebanmoro I am a little confused by what the data shows. Is this daily active users or per-day new users?
@tomrod "New" users
@estebanmoro got it. So we're looking at ~200k new users on #Mastodon -- wonder if it picks up a lot in next few weeks (onboarding through #econtwitter was trivial, makes me think the login friction is mostly resolved).
@estebanmoro it would be kinda great if the end result of Musk's ego trip is the democratization of social media.
@heathenryan @estebanmoro It will be a corker of a film in a few years too! With some great tantrums by Musk.
@estebanmoro It may be worth considering that Twitter may be saturated, so comparing mastodon to twitter growth may be comparing apples to oranges. Plus, mastodon users are usually primed to be willing to join some kind of ‘micro post’ social media, whereas Twitter may be the gateway (transfer may be easier than initial hook). Great plot!
@kaio thanks. Yes in my previous post I mentioned that this is orange-to-apples comparison. Only time will tell.
@estebanmoro I enjoy this graph even without thr comparison to twitter
@estebanmoro your gonna need a bigger scale.
Mastodon Users (@[email protected])

Attached: 1 image 6,002,045 accounts +3,848 in the last hour +84,901 in the last day +265,032 in the last week

Bitcoin Mastodon
@estebanmoro also roughly where Twitter was towards the end of 2008: https://twitter.com/jonerlichman/status/1093706679999442944
Jon Erlichman on Twitter

“Number of Twitter’s monthly users: 2018: 321 million 2017: 330 million 2016: 319 million 2015: 305 million 2014: 288 million 2013: 241 million 2012: 185 million 2011: 117 million 2010: 54 million 2009: 18 million 2008: 6 million (Source: company, estimates)”

Twitter
@estebanmoro There’s definitely an exodus going on- the people I follow are disappearing
@estebanmoro Bit of a tough compare when you only take these two weeks into account. 😅 A 2022 average comparison would be more interesting/insightful.
@estebanmoro
Hi, it would be nice to see how it on a longuer time, ie including April what the purchase was announced (and when I created my account... ;-)

@estebanmoro do you have an explanation why growth is smaller than the average before 24. October? it kind of looks wrong. maybe ignore everything after that in the average?

maybe in 3 days we see the full effect of the current events. i'm interested in an update of the graph when it's more flat like before the events

@estebanmoro

There are still a number of accounts on Twitter that I follow because they provide information I'm interested in. I hope that the increasing popularity of Mastodon (and maybe Twitter getting less popular) helps it to be taken more seriously as a channel to disseminate such information.

@sibrosan @estebanmoro

Yes. Twitter has ended up for me as a link/bookmark directory of information and some posters posting good resources consistently.

Happy to move away from twitter "discussions" as that was mostly anaemic or emotive but the information resources provided by posters on Mastodon will hopefully grow more valuable over time.

Also considering deleting twitter just to regain peace of mind from the dopamine surges and troughs it induces.

@estebanmoro While this sure is promising, the primary reason with the sudden upsurge on Mastodon is the moral ambiguity people have with the whole Twitter layoff and Twitter Blue situation.
And one thing that we know about moral ambiguities is that, it doesn’t last long compared to ‘habit’.
So once the dust settles, people may go back to their place of comfort, unless they get something truly extraordinary that makes them leaving Mastodon, difficult.

P.S. Just an opinion!

@ankksharma thanks for you opinion. Only time will tell. But if a critical mass of people gets here it will be difficult to not call this platform “home”

@estebanmoro @ankksharma Yes, I think the critical mass is, well, critical! 😜

Over the years, I've had friends try to make alternative sites to FB and Twitter happen, and they just never had the momentum. Mastodon feels different to me. I am optimistic this time, and I never have been before!

@estebanmoro Absolutely, and I wish this could be the beginning of something great.
Also, your hope and optimism here is infectious!

@ankksharma @estebanmoro

There was a period when everyone was leaving WhatsApp to go to Signal. The exodus was pretty short lived though. I think Mastodon needs a strong group of public intellectuals and some ethical brands or companies to migrate to trigger a longer term shift

@sarantium @ankksharma @estebanmoro Personally, it was all the journos I follow on 🐦 coming over here that prompted me to follow them.
@estebanmoro I just hope the servers can cope and more importantly, the whole network/service can scale.