Earth system models have generally been on track with unfolding reality, and they get better all the time.

Anyway, here's more of what Russell Vought calls "alarmism" but is better thought of as information for applying the #PrecautionaryPrinciple. These are very high stakes.

"Simultaneous droughts across multiple maize-producing regions can strike record-shattering portions of the global maize agricultural area, threatening global food security as the system is poorly adapted to large shocks. Yet the future probability of such global droughts remains unknown. Here, we close this gap by analyzing surface soil moisture data from large ensemble climate models under future emission scenarios. During 2026-2099, the chance of at least one such event is 52% (32–80%, range across models) under an intermediate emission scenario and 60% (32–100%) under high emissions, about seven to eleven times higher than expected if there were no long-term trends in soil moisture. These elevated probabilities are primarily driven by long-term drying in Brazil, Europe, and the USA. Interestingly, global record-shattering droughts do not emerge from simultaneous regional record-shattering events, but they mostly occur when several regions simultaneously face moderately extreme droughts relative to the new climate. These results demonstrate a high potential for an upcoming global record-shattering drought in crop-producing areas, an under-recognized risk for food security."

Sadly it appears the authors are unable to pay the ransom demanded by Springer-Nature so as to free their findings.

[HT to @anlomedad for pointing out that the article is indeed open access. And Springer Nature is that little bit richer. :-) ]

#ClimateChange.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-70700-z

dev.dfaria.eu: ⚖️ If we are unsure about an animal’s sentience, s -

⚖️ If we are unsure about an animal’s sentience, should the law give them the benefit of the doubt? Why or why not? How do you think this could be put into practice? #AnimalRights #AnimalSentience #AnimalEthics #AnimalLaw #AnimalRightsLaw #AnimalLawEducation #PrecautionaryPrinciple #SentientBeings...

https://bsky.app/profile/icareanimals.bsky.social/post/3lwojrr5akh2a

COVID is not just a respiratory virus. It’s not a cold. It’s not “mild”.

It’s a multi system vascular virus that can do damage throughout your body.

It’s also a novel virus. Five years is not a lot of time in the lifecycle of a new disease. The more we learn, the more obvious it becomes that avoiding infection is critical for long term health.

The precautionary principle should have been applied. We need to be humble and realize that we don’t know how bad things will be in another few years.

So wear a mask. Clean and ventilate the air. Avoid high risk settings. Do whatever you can to minimize your risk of infection. Protect yourself and your communities.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s44349-025-00015-3

#covidisairborne #covidisnotover #sarscov2 #longcovid #heartdamage #disability #wearamask #PrecautionaryPrinciple

It strikes me that many regulatory regimes are still not asking the right questions about adverse impacts - and we keep finding problems like this.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/27/pet-fur-found-in-songbird-nests-contains-high-levels-of-pesticides-study-finds?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

#ChemicalPollution #pesticidepoisoning but no robust #PrecautionaryPrinciple

I urge everyone to read this - especially if you live in LA (or have loved ones there).

I appreciate Isabel mentioning the early days of the Covid pandemic and how we were told masks weren’t necessary. How public officials didn’t model mask wearing or precautions until much much later.

It’s fitting perhaps that the folks doing the heavy lifting to protect people from the LA wildfires are disability and Covid activists.

They’ve been boots on the ground since day one, with the government even going to them for masks and clean air supplies.

The same government that tried to ban masks a few months ago, that discarded the disabled as “acceptable losses” are now asking for their help.

And they’re showing up. Because that’s what this incredible community does. It shows up for people.

If you’ve been Covid aware these last five years you’ve no doubt learned a ton about air quality. I know I have.

You know about CO2, PMs and VOCs. You know about the difference between an N95 and a P100 and why gas filters are necessary for wildfires.

You know to listen to the air quality experts who have been trying to warn us for years about the dangers of COVID and wildfire smoke.

Listen to them now. The air isn’t safe. The water isn’t safe. The homes that are still standing aren’t safe.

Even if the air quality is “ok” in Los Angeles, it’s anything but. It’s just like when we were told we didn’t have to wear masks for Covid. It’s early days and the info being given is incomplete (and best) and outright wrong (at worst).

Mask up. Engage with a local mask bloc if you can’t afford a respirator or don’t know what kind to get. Pay attention to the air quality experts.

Apply the precautionary principle. It may save your life.

https://open.substack.com/pub/isabelkaplan/p/la-is-toxic-and-we-need-to-talk-about?r=19dk2e&utm_medium=ios

#la #losangeles #wildfires #california #wearamask #airquality #precautionaryprinciple

Two snowy owls who were found dead in Toronto in December now confirmed to have died of bird flu.

We already had a teen in BC on life support with no known animal exposure.

Can we talk about the fact that these owls were found in the most populous part of the country??

https://www.torontotoday.ca/local/environment-climate/avian-flu-killed-snowy-owls-found-at-the-leslie-street-spit-10090739

#h5n1 #birdflu #pandemic #toronto #wearamask #precautionaryprinciple