Assessing The Veracity Of SVR’s Report About A Polish-Ukrainian False Flag Attack In Poland

Assessing The Veracity Of SVR’s Report About A Polish-Ukrainian False Flag Attack In Poland

By Andrew Korybko

There’s little doubt that Ukraine has an interest in escalating NATO-Russian tensions through these means, including by employing anti-government Russian and Belarusian nationals in this reported plot, but it’s debatable whether Poland is involved in this and the extent to which it might be if so.

Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) warned that Ukraine’s GUR and the Polish intelligence services (none of the several existing ones were specified) are cooking up a false flag attack in Poland, which might “involve a simulated attack on critical infrastructure”, in order to blame Russia and Belarus. According to them, “Kiev hopes to incite European countries to respond to Russia with the harshest possible force, preferably militarily.” The veracity of these dramatic claims will now be assessed.

In reverse order, it does indeed appear to be the case that Kiev wants to manipulate NATO members into initiating direct military force against Russia, whether in the special operation zone or elsewhere such as on the territory of its Belarusian mutual defence ally or in its exclave of Kaliningrad. This explains why Zelensky repeated his no-fly zone demands after the suspicious Russian drone incident in Poland and called for closing the Danish Straits to Russian shipping after similarly suspicious incidents in Scandinavia.

Of relevance, SVR claimed that the aforesaid Polish incident and an associated Romanian one were Ukrainian provocations, though it’s still unclear exactly what happened. In any case, it’s also relevant to mention the reports amplified by Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova that Ukraine is preparing a false flag drone provocation against NATO as well as Zelensky’s partial responsibility for Trump’s flip-flip on Ukraine, all of which lend credence to suspicions about Ukraine’s motives.

Moving along, the part of their report about how “militants from the ‘Freedom of Russia Legion’ and the Belarusian ‘K. Kalinovsky Regiment’” have been selected for this next provocation might also be true since they’re known to be Ukrainian proxies, so each’s nationals could indeed be implicated in this plot. That would in turn make it more likely that NATO, including the US, is misled about who’s responsible. As for their claim of Poland’s joint involvement in orchestrating this, however, that’s much more debatable.

Conservative-nationalist Polish President Karol Nawrocki and his National Security Bureau weren’t informed by liberal-globalist Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government that the damage incurred by a home during last month’s drone incident was caused by a wayward Polish missile. They only found out after a source leaked this to the press, which followed Tusk’s government blaming that damage on Russia at an emergency UNSC meeting, thus suggesting that he wanted to manipulate Nawrocki and his allies.

As assessed here, the purpose was to deceive him into authorizing Polish participation in a no-fly zone over Ukraine in order to raise NATO-Russian tensions, with these convoluted means being employed due to his reluctance to further embroil Poland in the conflict. Circling back to SVR’s report, either their source about Poland’s joint involvement in this latest plot is wrong or subversives within its “deep state” are going behind Nawrocki’s back, but the point is that it’s unrealistic to imagine that he’s in on it.

As a reminder, some of SVR’s reports didn’t pan out such as their ones about US plans to replace Zelensky, which were critiqued here in summer 2024. It should also go without saying that Russia truly has no reason to risk an escalation of tensions with NATO by attacking Poland as explained here, here, and here in summer 2023. Nevertheless, given the credible possibility that Ukraine is plotting a false flag attack on Poland, Nawrocki and his own “deep state” allies should urgently launch an investigation.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Voice of East.

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#Belarus #FalseFlag #Geopolitics #NATO #Poland #Russia #SuwalkiCorridor #SVR #Ukraine #Wagner

Was Scandinavia’s Russian Drone Scare A False Flag To Crack Down On Russia’s Shadow Fleet?

Was Scandinavia’s Russian Drone Scare A False Flag To Crack Down On Russia’s Shadow Fleet?

By Andrew Korybko

It’s highly suspicious that Zelensky just claimed without any evidence that they were launched by Russian tankers and subsequently demanded that Europe close the straits to its shipping in response.

Unknown drones recently flew in close proximity to Danish and Norwegian airports, prompting speculation among some that they were Russia’s delayed hybrid retaliation against NATO for backing Ukraine’s drone flights in proximity to Russia’s own airports over the past few years. No evidence has emerged in support of that hypothesis, but Zelensky still dishonestly passed off such claims as fact during his speech at the latest Warsaw Security Forum.

According to him, “there is growing evidence that Russia may have used tankers in the Baltic Sea to launch drones – the drones that caused major disruption in Northern Europe. If tankers used by Russia are serving as drone platforms, then such tankers should not be free to operate in the Baltic. This is de facto Russia’s military activity against European countries, so Europe has the right to close straits and sea routes to protect itself.”

His proposal for NATO to close the Danish Straits to Russian shipping on this pretext, which would amount to an illegal blockade that could thus legitimize offensive action by Russia in self-defence, was predictable given Ukraine’s and some of its patrons’ interest in escalating the bloc’s tensions with Russia. In fact, it might even be the case that this was the false flag that Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service twice warned could soon be staged by the UK and Ukraine, albeit ultimately taking a different form.

They assessed that those two might orchestrate potentially forthcoming provocations in the Baltic that would then be blamed on Russia in order to justify cracking down on its sanctioned energy trade that the West dramatically describes as being conducted by a “shadow fleet” transiting through that sea. While no US ship was targeted with Ukrainian-transferred Soviet/Russian torpedoes nor were such mines fished out of the Baltic, Scandinavia’s Russian drone scare still arguably fulfils the same role.

Sceptics might insist that Russia resorted to “plausibly deniable hybrid retaliation” against NATO, yet it’s illogical that Russia would risk anything that could justify the same escalation that Putin’s restraint has thus far avoided, the same goes for the earlier drone incident in Poland. Ditto that for the associated accusation that it violated Estonia’s maritime airspace. All these incidents were spun by the West as deliberate Russian provocations and preceded escalatory proposals misportrayed as “retaliation”.

The Polish and Estonian ones were exploited to get Trump to greenlight NATO downing Russian jets on the basis of them violating the bloc’s airspace, which might embolden some to attempt this on false pretexts, while the Scandinavian ones were exploited to call for closing the Danish Straits to its shipping. Both concern escalations in the Baltic, which could amount to an illegal blockade that obstructs the free movement of Russian planes and ships there, thus also placing unprecedented pressure on Kaliningrad.

This insight strongly suggests that Scandinavia’s Russian drone scare was indeed a false flag to justify cracking down on Russia’s “shadow fleet”, though it’s presently unclear whether any NATO members will cross the Rubicon by seriously making any such move like closing the Danish Straits to its shipping. In any case, Zelensky’s proposal proves that he’s trying to manipulate Trump into a disaster of epic proportions together with some of his like-minded NATO patrons, but hopefully Trump won’t fall for it.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Voice of East.

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#Denmark #Estonia #FalseFlag #Geopolitics #NATO #Norway #Russia #Scandinavia #TheBaltics #Ukraine #VladimirPutin

Wednesday, October 1, 2025

https://activitypub.writeworks.uk/2025/10/wednesday-october-1-2025/

@alt_mirror

In other words, #Russia is planning on killing more #civilians & then try passing it off as a #FalseFlag #operation. #RussianInvasion #Ukraine #SlavaUkraini #СлаваУкраїні

Simplicius is essential reading as the #West collectively lurches toward all out #war with #Russia. #Falseflag drone attacks everywhere, but no one stops to ask why Russia would, for instance, send drones to attack #Denmark.

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/eu-fast-tracks-transformation-into

#Politics #Democrats #Republicans #Liberals #Conservatives #Vote #Election #DemocraticParty #RepublicanParty #DonaldTrump #Trump #JoeBiden #Biden #KamalaHarris #TimWalz #Democracy #USA #Musk #Fascism #Fascist #BernieSanders #AOC #Progressive

Une tentation nouvelle, surprenante, qui surgit tout a coup sous la pression de Poutine. Sinon évidemment l'État-providence est un socle puissant et intangible des pays européens, dont la France dont Macron en est une figure importante.

Le Monde – Pour augmenter leurs dépenses militaires, les pays européens tentés de réduire l’Etat-providence
#neoliberalisme #falseflag #mediadelabourgeoisie
https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2025/09/30/a-travers-l-europe-la-tentation-des-coupes-sociales-pour-financer-la-defense_6643664_3234.html

Assessing Reports That Ukraine Is Preparing A False Flag Drone Provocation Against NATO

Assessing Reports That Ukraine Is Preparing A False Flag Drone Provocation Against NATO

By Andrew Korybko

Having captured Russian drones bomb NATO logistics hubs in Poland and Romania via a modern-day “Gleiwitz incident” could achieve Ukraine’s goal of sparking a hot NATO-Russian war.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova raised global awareness of Hungarian media reports about a planned Ukrainian false flag drone provocation against NATO in her Telegram post on Friday. She hyperlinked to one of the outlets, Pesti Srácok, a little more than two hours after they published their editorial. It ended by citing unspecified Telegram posts about Ukraine’s plans to bomb logistics hubs in Poland and Romania with captured Russian drones and then blame Moscow.

Accordingly, there’s no solid intelligence about this, just social media reports that were picked up by the Russian Foreign Ministry and amplified by their spokeswoman. Nevertheless, this doesn’t mean that such a scenario isn’t credible, especially given the larger context. Trump just greenlit NATO downing Russian jets that violate the bloc’s airspace, which could arguably embolden some members to attempt this on false pretexts, thus risking a major escalation of NATO-Russian tensions exactly as Ukraine wants.

Likewise, if the most zealously anti-Russian ones along the alliance’s eastern frontier ultimately get cold feet after fearing that Trump might hang them out to dry, Ukraine could nudge them in the direction of offensive operations against Russia disguised as “reciprocal retaliation” via this false flag plot. The essence is similar to what Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service warned about twice over the summer regarding joint British-Ukrainian plots to stage false flag provocations in the Baltic Sea.

According to their sources, this would involve Ukrainian-transferred Soviet/Russian torpedoes hitting a US ship there or at least exploding in close proximity to it and/or fishing up Ukrainian-transferred Soviet/Russian mines, either of which could suffice for pulling Trump into mission creep. They could also falsely justify offensive actions on the grounds of “reciprocal retaliation”, albeit at sea in these scenarios, while the latest one that Zakharova warned about could include drones, airstrikes, and/or a no-fly zone.

Russia continues to gradually gain ground in the special operation zone, and while no breakthrough has yet to occur, the military-strategic dynamics are clearly in its favour and decisively against Ukraine’s. Taken to its conclusion, this trend will inevitably result in Russia controlling all the disputed territory with time, thus enabling Moscow to end the conflict on more of its terms by then. Ukraine wants to avert that scenario so it’s desperately trying to engineer the game-changer of direct NATO intervention to that end.

It’s only through such a dramatic development that the abovementioned dynamics could possibly be altered to at the very least freeze the conflict, which Ukraine and the West have demanded of Russia to no avail since that would leave unmet many of its goals in the conflict, ergo Ukraine’s false flag motives. Having captured Russian drones bomb NATO logistics hubs in Poland and Romania via a modern-day “Gleiwitz incident” as Zakharova described Ukraine’s reported plans to be might easily achieve that.

Therefore, while there’s no proof in support of the claim that Ukraine is preparing a false flag drone provocation against NATO, it still can’t be ruled out. Zakharova’s post was meant to expose this plot and thus deter Ukraine, but in the event that it still happens, Trump shouldn’t let himself be manipulated by Zelensky into a disaster of epic proportions by involving the US in NATO’s faux “reciprocal retaliation” or pledging to defend the bloc ahead of Russia likely teaching it an unforgettably painful lesson afterwards.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Voice of East.

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#drones #FalseFlag #Geopolitics #NATO #Russia #Ukraine #USA