Bernd von Mallinckrodt 🦋2d ago
New overview preprint: doi.org/10.5281/zeno... #CRTI does not outperform classical EWS in linear systems … and that’s the point. #EWS measure amplitude. #CRTI measures structure. Different mechanisms → different validity.🖖

The Compression–Response Therm...
The Compression–Response Thermodynamic Index (CRTI): A Structural Diagnostic Framework for Complex System Collapse — Overview, Synthesis, and Research Roadmap

This document provides an overview and synthesis of the Compression–Response Thermodynamic Index (CRTI), a structural diagnostic framework for analyzing collapse dynamics in complex systems. It is not a primary research paper, but a structured entry point for interdisciplinary readers, summarizing the core concepts, empirical findings, and research trajectory of the CRTI program.   CRTI defines a viability index T = R / \Phi, where \Phi quantifies structural compression via the effective rank of the covariance matrix and R represents adaptive response capacity through recovery dynamics. The framework was developed to address collapse mechanisms characterized by structural reorganization — specifically, the progressive loss of internal degrees of freedom — which may not be captured by classical early warning signals based on amplitude statistics.   A central result of the underlying simulation study (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19181937) is that CRTI does not outperform classical early warning signals in linear stochastic systems. This finding is interpreted as a scope clarification rather than a limitation: CRTI is a structural diagnostic, not a universal leading indicator. The document explains three simulation regimes (endogenous compression, exogenous shock, and an attempted variance-conserving compression scenario), the distinction between amplitude-based and structure-based indicators, and the conditions under which each class applies.   The overview further outlines connections to real-world systems and presents a research roadmap spanning nonlinear modeling and empirical validation. It serves as a central reference and citation anchor for the CRTI research program.     early warning signals complex systems structural compression CRTI regime shifts covariance dynamics critical transitions mechanism-dependent collapse stochastic systems research synthesis

Zenodo
utzer3d ago

Ich habe in den letzten drei Jahren im Schnitt pro Monat 97€ für #Heizung und Warmwasser ausgegeben. Das ist mit einer #Wärmepumpe in einem KfW55 #Haus von 2021. Und wir haben es immer sehr warm im Haus mit 23°C und lüften auch oft.

Verbrauch war ~9400 kWh und das bei reinem Ökostro von #EWS, Fläche im Umbauten Raum, alles beheizt, ist 122m2.

Das ist laut #Energieausweis ganz knapp am A+ vorbei und damit A.

#Energie

Bernd von Mallinckrodt 🦋5d ago
Early warning signals #EWS are not universal … they are mechanism-dependent. In a new preprint, I compare AR1, Fisher Information, Φ, and #CRTI-2 across distinct collapse dynamics … and show that each indicator works only under specific conditions. doi.org/10.5281/zeno... 🖖

Mechanism-Dependent Performanc...
Mechanism-Dependent Performance of Early Warning Signals for Critical Transitions: A Comparative Analysis

This study evaluates the performance of early warning signals (EWS) for critical transitions across mechanistically distinct collapse scenarios. While commonly used indicators such as lag-1 autocorrelation (AR1) and Fisher Information (FI) are often treated as universally applicable, their reliability under heterogeneous system dynamics remains insufficiently understood.   We conduct a comparative analysis of four indicators — AR1, Fisher Information, integrated information (Φ), and the Composite Resilience Transition Index (CRTI-2) — across three collapse mechanisms: (i) canonical saddle-node bifurcation, (ii) fold bifurcation with noise amplification, and (iii) structural compression collapse. Performance is evaluated using lead time, precision, recall, and F1 score under controlled stochastic simulations.   Results demonstrate that indicator performance is strongly mechanism-dependent. AR1 performs best in classical bifurcation scenarios consistent with critical slowing down. Fisher Information achieves higher precision under noise-amplified conditions, reflecting its sensitivity to distributional structure. In contrast, integrated information (Φ) provides a substantial lead-time advantage (1.4–1.9×) in structural compression regimes, where collapse is preceded by progressive decoupling of system components rather than scalar variance changes. CRTI-2 offers robust cross-mechanism performance but with reduced lead time compared to specialized indicators.   These findings do not support the hypothesis of a universal early warning signal. Instead, they motivate a mechanism-aware framework for indicator selection, formalized here as a 2×2 conceptual taxonomy linking collapse dynamics to indicator suitability. The results highlight the importance of integrating multivariate structural metrics alongside classical time-series indicators for reliable detection of impending transitions in complex systems.     early warning signals, critical transitions, regime shifts, Fisher Information, autocorrelation, integrated information, Phi, CRTI, complex systems, bifurcation theory, structural collapse, system resilience, tipping points, stochastic dynamics, complexity science

Zenodo
peacekeeperMar 17
@tagesschau - wie bitte? #USA begeht #Terror - und ist hochgradig kriminell und ein Verbrecherstaat - https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/weltwirtschaft/trump-oelstrategie-geopolitik-iran-china-100.html --> Was sie da machen ist, ist Verharmlosen von Verbrechen - eigentlich wohl auch eine Straftat? Und bitter - #EWS fällt schon drauf rein...und die #Bundesregierung deckt diese Machenschaften! Sie sind Komplizen des Verbrechens!
Trumps Ölstrategie: Wie die USA den Energiemarkt neu ordnen

Erst Venezuela, dann Iran: Experten vermuten hinter Trumps Vorgehen eine Strategie, die globalen Ölströme umzulenken und den Rivalen China zu schwächen. Nutznießer ist die US-Ölindustrie.

tagesschau.de
Show threadpeacekeeperMar 13
@tagesschau Aber nicht, wenn die Schreihälse der #CDU und #fckafd wieder nach #Atomkraft schreien! Und vor allem muss die dezentrale Energiewende angegangen werden - wie bei #EWS zu sehen - auf, auf
Ilan KelmanMar 9

"F Words for Warning Reactions"
https://blogs.ucl.ac.uk/warning-research-centre/2026/03/09/f-words-for-warning-reactions

#EWS #WarningSystems #Warning #Warnings #DRR #DisasterRiskReduction #DisasterWarning #EarlyWarning #EarlyWarningSystems

F Words for Warning Reactions | UCL Warning Research Centre

UCL Homepage

Show threadEarthworm 🐌Mar 3

@tocomplymeanstolie

Elektrizitätswerke Schönau repräsentiert die echte Energiewende!

Um es Anschaulich zu machen:

Solar- und Windparks in Investmentfonds-hand sind die E-Autos.

EWS, die Öffis.

@ews

#EWS #Energiewende

Sich fügen heißt lügen !Mar 3

Falls Ihr einen sehr korrekten Stromanbieter sucht: #EWS.

Bürgereigen und hundertprozentig sauber. Auch in den Abrechnungen. Gerade haben sie wieder den Strompreis gesenkt.

Ich bin da seit 10 Jahren sehr zufrieden.

Joachim (he/him, white)Feb 25

Hallo @ews , gibt's das nit dem #SonnenCent noch?

Wie kann ich den für meinen Vertrag hochsetze?

#Ökostrom #Wirkung #ews

AllAboutSecurityFeb 11

Microsoft beendet Exchange Web Services: Was Unternehmen jetzt wissen müssen

Bis April 2027 stellt Microsoft sein Exchange Web Services-Protokoll vollständig ein.

https://www.all-about-security.de/microsoft-beendet-exchange-web-services-was-unternehmen-jetzt-wissen-muessen/

#EWS #microsoft #backup

Das Ende von Exchange Web Services: Umstellung auf Graph

Das Ende von Exchange Web Services bringt wichtige Änderungen für Microsoft 365 mit sich. Sehen Sie, wie Sie sich darauf vorbereiten können.

All About Security Das Online-Magazin zu Cybersecurity (Cybersicherheit). Ransomware, Phishing, IT-Sicherheit, Netzwerksicherheit, KI, Threats, DDoS, Identity & Access, Plattformsicherheit