La Niña conditions are present and favored to persist through December 2025 - February 2026, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely in January-March 2026 (55% chance), according to the Climate Prediction Center.
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
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A transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is likely in the next couple of months, with a 71% chance of La Niña during October - December 2025. Thereafter, La Niña is favored but chances decrease to 54% in December 2025 - February 2026.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
Mes p'tits Mastoufoux, un point #enso :
L'OMM annonce un passage en LaNina possible, dès septembre (... on est en septembre.. ) ..
Le B.O.M pour la partie qui le concerne est très éloigné de cette prévision...
Pour ma part.. un maintient en conditions neutres me paraît plus que probable ...d'autant que pour qu'une LaNina soit vraiment décrétée il faut 3 mois consécutifs sous la valeur référence.
Assez étonné par cet écart.
#vereinfachteSprache
El Niño wird durch den #Klimawandel extremer. Das Wetterphänomen bringt weltweit #Trockenheit und #Überschwemmungen. Wie wirkt sich dabei die globale Erwärmung aus? Welche Risiken ergeben sich für die betroffenen Länder? Möchtest du mehr darüber wissen, wie El Niño das Wetter beeinflusst? Eine Erklärung findest Du im Artikel. #ElNiño #Klimawandel #Extremwetter #ENSO
El Niño ist ein natürlicher Wetterphänomen im Raum um den pazifischen Ozean, das zu Extremwettern, wie Starkregen, Überschwemmungen und Dürren führen kann. Klimaforscher warnen, dass der Klimawandel El Niño verstärken...
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Wie beeinflusst der #Klimawandel das Wetterphänomen #ElNiño? 🌍🔥 Wird es durch die Erwärmung extremer und unberechenbarer? Mehr über die weltweiten Auswirkungen von #ENSO und die möglichen Risiken für unsere Zukunft im Beitrag.
#Wetter #Extremwetter #LaNiña #Klimaforschung #GlobaleErwärmung #Naturphänomene
El Niño ist ein natürlicher Wetterphänomen im Raum um den pazifischen Ozean, das zu Extremwettern, wie Starkregen, Überschwemmungen und Dürren führen kann. Klimaforscher warnen, dass der Klimawandel El Niño verstärken...
ENSO-neutral is most likely through the late Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (56% chance in August-October). Thereafter, a brief period of La Niña conditions is favored in the fall and early winter 2025-26 before reverting to ENSO-neutral.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
Is La Niña returning Fall 2025?
Winter 2024-25 came with a short-lived and weak La Niña that waned in the Spring. Since then, the equatorial Pacific has been settled in what we call an ENSO neutral pattern (meaning that we are not experiencing El Niño or La Niña).
Some modeling has hinted toward La Niña making a return around October or November of this year. Along with this, a few online weather sources have latched onto the La Niña train and the hype that it contains.
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NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecast ENSO category chances. (NOAA)The NOAA Climate Prediction Center is not sold on the idea of an impending La Niña and neither am I. It is true that they slightly favor the emergence of La Niña October or November but it appears to be fairly short lived with ENSO neutral conditions returning around the New Year.
For the Climate Prediction Center to officially forecast a La Niña (or El Niño) event, they need to be favoring those conditions for five consecutive three month periods. Their latest forecast, issued July 10, only has two consecutive periods.
Various weather model views on ENSO conditions through the end of the year. (StormVista)To reach La Niña, the equatorial Pacific needs to have sea surface temperatures 0.5°C or cooler below average. We might tap that around October or November but the consensus is definitely closer to neutral conditions.
La Niña can be exciting in the Pacific Northwest because it can bring cooler weather and above average precipitation in the winter. Unfortunately for lovers of Cascade concrete this doesn’t seem the case for this year. There will certainly still be mountain snow, and there are other features that drive regional weather, but La Niña doesn’t appear to be one of those relevant drivers.
ENSO neutral years can bring plenty of exciting weather to Washington, Oregon, and British Columbia, however. Evidence suggests that fall wind storms are more common during ENSO neutral falls than under other ENSO categories. With this comes a higher risk (but not a guarantee) of a severe wind storm.
Despite early forecasts to the contrary, Fall 2024 came in ENSO neutral. We had plenty of fall storms including a particularly robust atmospheric river aimed at the Lower Mainland. These storms kept temperatures mild into December as the mean flow was out of the southwest.
Fall 2025 certainly won’t be exactly the same as Fall 2024 but the storm pattern could be fairly similar in scope. Even if La Niña conditions briefly emerge, it’s more likely to seem like an ENSO neutral fall rather than a La Niña fall because of how weak it appears to be.
ENSO, or the El Niño Southern Oscillation, refers to sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. The primary region meteorologists look at for diagnosis is from 120° to 170°W, well to the west of the Ecuadorian coast which sits at around 80°W. El Niño is present when water temperatures are above average and La Niña represents below average water temperatures.
The oscillation is driven by a number of factors, mainly coming down to how the wind interacts with the sea surface which impacts how much upwelling of cool water occurs on the South American coast. Air pressure values in Tahiti and Darwin, Australia are utilized to aid in diagnosis of the atmospheric pattern.
The featured image is of a bomb cyclone that struck the Pacific Northwest on November 19, 2024. (University of Wisconsin/NOAA)
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