Why We Stopped Using the Mathematics That Works – Guy Freeman

Someone asked why decision theory stopped being widely used in AI. The answer involves ImageNet, academic departments, and the seductive power of not having to specify your objectives.

Guy Freeman

Episode 152 is out 🎙️
Host Alex Andorra talks with Daniel Saunders about a Bayesian decision theory workflow.

Big idea: stop optimizing for model accuracy and start optimizing for decision value.

🔗 https://lnkd.in/gw_uGaZc

#Bayesian #DecisionTheory #DataScience #Optimization

@matthewconroy

Thank you for this fun decision problem!

To start getting a picture I examined the much simpler case of a "two-sided die" or a coin with faces 1 and 2. Same rules otherwise.

Below is a sketch of a truncated decision tree for this case, when the initial roll is "1". Decision nodes are blue squares with decisions as solid blue lines; the decisions are "K" for "keep" and "R" for "roll". Inference/chance nodes are red circles with outcomes as dashed red lines; outcomes are "1" and "2"; it's understood that each has 50% probability.

The expected utility of each decision is in grey at the end of the corresponding line. The fold-back value at each decision branch is in grey above the corresponding decision node.

If the first roll is "2" then it's clearly best to keep it, as the subsequent roll would yield a divisor and a 0$ outcome.

If the first roll is "1", the best decision apparently is to roll once more, and then, if the outcome is "2", keep the result.

Assume that the player stops in any case with "Keep" at the Nth decision, say N = 5. Then the expected utility of the previous "Roll" decision is 9$/2, which is less that the utility of the "Keep" decision, $7. So the previous decision should be "Keep". Folding backwards this situation remains up to the very first decision, for which the expected utility of "Roll" is 3$/2, whereas that for "Keep" is 1$.

It *seems* that the reasoning above would still apply if the player could continue indefinitely, since at each decision the utility of "Keep" is (1+2N)$, whereas that of "Roll" is (1.5 + N)$. But I'm not completely sure about this, there may be some logical gap.

Unfortunately this simplest case is too special, owing to its binary nature, to say something about your score-bound-strategy assumption. It'll be cool to check a 3-sided die :)

#decisiontheory

My half-baked deep thought of the weekend:

Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem should be renamed Arrow's Context-Sensitivity Theorem, and re-interpreted as saying a social choice function that neglects context leads to dictators.

I say this because the axiom of independence from irrelevant alternatives--one of the assumptions behind the theorem--states that a social choice function should be such that the relationship between A and B is not changed once a new alternative C is introduced. Unpacked, this means the choice function should be insensitive to any context C might bring with it.

Arrow's theorem essentially says that a social choice function satisfying this and a couple other axioms leads to dictators (meaning, one individual's preferences dictate the social choice function's preferences, overruling everyone else involved in the choice who might disagree). Hence the re-interpretation: neglecting context in social choice leads to dictators.

#economics #SocialWelfare #SocialChoice #WelfareEconomics #DecisionTheory #ArrowsTheorem
Today I heard an anecdote about the Monty Hall problem. Apparently Monty Hall himself was once asked his thoughts about the formal version of the problem, and his response was that it was in no way faithful to the game show problem from which it takes its name.

Where does the formal version fall short? Monty himself actively tried to mislead the contestant. He knew them, and tried to persuade them. This was a key part of the game. He said the formal model kills all the suspense. It'd be too boring to watch.

In other words, Monty Hall operated in a large world and it's in that context the Monty Hall problem is interesting, whereas the formal "Monty Hall problem" chops it down to a small world that is not faithful to the real world version of the problem, and on top of it all is boring.

#EcologicalRationality #LargeWorlds #SmallWorlds #modeling #DecisionTheory #ChoiceTheory #RationalChoiceTheory #MontyHallProblem
Monty Hall problem - Wikipedia

To be further accurate, you would also not know how many people are on each track, or whether there are any people at all on each track, or how many tracks there are.

#PascalsWager #trolleyProblem #decisionTheory #apologetics

h/t @AnswersInReason

Based on work by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, who have shown bad feelings about losses are stronger than good feelings we have about gains, Schwartz argues that as you’re presented with countless choices, your pleasure at the prospect of more options is canceled out by the anticipated loss of making a wrong choice.
#Choice #DecisionTheory #dating #optimization #socialnetworking
https://nautil.us/the-problem-with-modern-romance-is-too-much-choice-236135/
The Problem with Modern Romance Is Too Much Choice

Are we happier with few or many choices? One subject settles the debate—dating.

Nautilus

DECISION MAKING ADVICE:

Whenever someone complains that a kid is doing something, respond with, "It would be better if they were doing drugs." because the absurdity of that response is directly proportional to the absurdity of the complaint.

#DecisionTheory #ParentingAdvice #kids

Been having a bit of existential dread these days. I've got tremendous buckets of skill and talent in building mathematical models and doing decision making calculations and etc, but when I hear about people actually doing that stuff its like "I ran this linear regression and now I don't know how to use the outcomes and what sort of p value can I calculate to tell me if what I did was significant?" Or whatever. The world doesn't WANT competence. #bayesian #decisionTheory #statistics