Oddly, much of the rank and file on both sides of this are seeing
#secession as more or less inevitable at some point - but it is studiously being avoided at the highest levels and in the media, even the nominally independent pundits.
Of course it won't be the "banners in the breeze" setup of the 1860s, but that doesn't mean that it won't happen.
Perhaps the most intriguing scenario is
#SoftSecession , where we have a figurehead CIS-style Federal government mouthing platitudes of democracy and unity while the states forge their own alliances. We're already doing that to some extent, and it's entirely possible that the
#Trumpista won't even really notice that much of a difference, provided they never venture into the "sinful" ("black") city.
Perhaps they'll have internal customs checkpoints as well, à la
#IraqiKurdistan