O=C=OExploring the risks of ‘cascading’ tipping points in a warming world
Tipping elements within the Earth system are increasingly well understood.
Scientists have identified more than 25 parts of the Earth’s #climate system that are likely to have #TippingPoints – thresholds where a small additional change in global warming will cause them to irreversibly shift into a new state.
The “tipping” of these systems – which include the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (#AMOC), the #Amazon #rainforest and the #Greenland ice sheet – would have profound consequences for both the #biosphere and people.
More recent research suggests that triggering one tipping element could cause subsequent changes in other tipping elements, potentially leading to a #TippingCascade.
For example, a collapsed AMOC could lead to dieback of the Amazon rainforest and hasten the melt of the Greenland ice sheet.
However, the interactions between individual tipping elements – and the ways they might trigger each other – remain largely underexplored.
In a review study, published last year in Earth System Dynamics, we unpack the current state of scientific understanding of the interactions between individual tipping elements.
We find that scientific literature suggests the majority of interactions between tipping elements will lead to further destabilisation of the climate system.
Existing research also indicates that “tipping cascades” could occur even under current #GlobalWarming projections.
Scientific understanding of individual #TippingElements is continuously improving, but more research on their interactions is needed.
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