Scientists Uncover How a Melting Arctic Is Driving Droughts and Extreme Weather
New research reveals that Arctic sea ice loss can disrupt weather worldwide, making California drier while increasing winter humidity in parts of Europe.
Using advanced models, scientists isolated this effect, showing how melting ice alters atmospheric circulation. These findings could explain past extreme weather events and improve future climate forecasts.
In einer neuen Studie prognostizieren #Wissenschaftler die #Eisfreiheit in der #Arktis nun 10 Jahre früher. Jetzt soll es etwa 2035 soweit sein. Als eisfrei gilt die #Arktis, wenn das #Sommereis auf weniger als 1 Million Quadratkilometer schrumpft. Da können dann alle Schiffskapitänamateure dort rumschippern und ihre #Schiffe versenken.
#DOI: 10.1038/s43017-023-00515-9
Observed Arctic sea ice losses are a sentinel of anthropogenic climate change. These reductions are projected to continue with ongoing warming, ultimately leading to an ice-free Arctic (sea ice area <1 million km2). In this Review, we synthesize understanding of the timing and regional variability of such an ice-free Arctic. In the September monthly mean, the earliest ice-free conditions (the first single occurrence of an ice-free Arctic) could occur in 2020–2030s under all emission trajectories and are likely to occur by 2050. However, daily September ice-free conditions are expected approximately 4 years earlier on average, with the possibility of preceding monthly metrics by 10 years. Consistently ice-free September conditions (frequent occurrences of an ice-free Arctic) are anticipated by mid-century (by 2035–2067), with emission trajectories determining how often and for how long the Arctic could be ice free. Specifically, there is potential for ice-free conditions in May–January and August–October by 2100 under a high-emission and low-emission scenario, respectively. In all cases, sea ice losses begin in the European Arctic, proceed to the Pacific Arctic and end in the Central Arctic, if becoming ice free at all. Future research must assess the impact of model selection and recalibration on projections, and assess the drivers of internal variability that can cause early ice-free conditions. With continued anthropogenic warming, an ice-free Arctic (sea ice area <1 million km2) is inevitable. This Review outlines the various characteristics of an ice-free Arctic, highlighting that future emission trajectories will determine where, how frequently and how long the Arctic will be ice free each year.
> According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, the overall trend in Arctic sea-ice minimum extent from 1979 to 2022 is down - by 12.6 percent per decade, relative to the 1981 to 2010 average (fig. 1). The average loss of sea ice works out at about 78,500 square kilometres per year. That's like losing an area the size of the state of South Carolina or the country of Austria - every year!
Red alert in Antarctica: the year rapid, dramatic change hit climate scientists like a ‘punch in the guts’ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/31/red-alert-in-antarctica-the-year-rapid-dramatic-change-hit-climate-scientists-like-a-punch-in-the-guts?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Antarctica has been gathering a lot of informed social media attention here and on the bird site. Well done to the Guardian for increasing the reach of this worrying situation. The predictions and fears are not new. The rate of change is. As the risks accumulate, will world leaders respond or hope the consequences away?
Mathrubhumi English
🌎 Experiencia interdimensional
Denise Gutzmer
Tino Eberl
formuchdeliberation
bs2
GreenerFutures