Climate Extremes as the Norm

"In the absence of effective global climate mitigation actions, we may thus witness a qualitative regime shift from a world dominated by individual climate-related hazards and impacts to one where compound occurrences become the norm."
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Messori, G., Muheki, D., Batibeniz, F., Bevacqua, E., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., & Thiery, W. (2025). Global mapping of concurrent hazards and impacts associated with climate extremes under climate change. Earth's Future, 13, e2025EF006325. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006325
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025EF006325
#Fossilfuels #impacts #CompoundHazards #ClimateExtremes #RegimeShift #bushfires #ExtremeHeat #floods #droughts #CropFailures #climate #hypernormalisation

Every episode in a tv series starts with a recap. So…

Previously, on Portal: the Regime Shift — In fall of 2023, one of the ruling families of Portal — the Desert Pocket Mouse (Chaetodipus penicillatus for my mammalogy friends) — fell from favor with no warning. With each passing month, hopes for a recovery faltered and then dimmed. By fall of 2024, this once thriving population had […]

https://jabberwocky.weecology.org/2025/03/12/regime-shift-a-winter-of-grim/

🚨 paper published! 🚨

We studied #Amazon fire regimes, using a simple #forest #fire #model, parameterised with #RemoteSensing data. Our findings suggest that the Amazon is currently not nearing a #RegimeShift (yay, some good news!) but also predict a consistent increase in fire extent induced by #deforestation (not so good news). More info:

https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.10764

Big shout-out to lead author @larysar. This was a very nice collaboration, I've certainly learned more than I contributed. 😊 🙌🏻 🎉

Climate change extinctions

"We can expect, with increased certainty, that rising temperatures will lead to an increasing number of extinctions, with the highest emission scenario leading to extinction of nearly a third of the Earth’s species, especially those from particular vulnerable taxa or regions." — Sacha Vignieri

"...Species inhabiting South America, Australia, and New Zealand face the greatest threats."

"Besides limiting greenhouse gases, pinpointing which species to protect first will be critical for preserving biodiversity until anthropogenic climate change is halted and reversed."
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Mark C. Urban, Climate change extinctions.Science386,1123-1128(2024).
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adp4461
#biodiversity #ecosystems #conservation #FossilFuels #extinction #risks #Australia #ClimateBreakdown #RegimeShift #mismatch #extinctions #Australia