Fed Rate Hold Odds for June Surge to 40% After US Jobs Surprise
The probability of a Fed rate hold through June surged to over 40% after a strong US jobs report, while expectations for a 50bp cut sharply declined, according to CME FedWatch.
US Treasury yields ended mixed in thin year-end trading, as the December FOMC minutes offered little new direction; the 10-year yield rose to 4.1290% while the 2-year fell to 3.4540%, with markets now pricing in a low probability of a January rate cut.
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[New York Bond Market]US Treasuries Mixed—Muted Trading as FOMC Minutes Fail to Move Market
US Treasury yields ended mixed in thin year-end trading, as the December FOMC minutes offered little new direction; the 10-year yield rose to 4.1290% while the 2-year fell to 3.4540%, with markets now pricing in a low probability of a January rate cut.
[Shin Yoon-woo's FX Analysis] The Direction of the Winds Set by the FOMC
The USD/KRW is expected to open near 1,470 as markets await the FOMC's final 2025 decision, with focus on future Fed policy signals and NPS hedging activity capping upside.
[New York Market Watch]Tech Stocks Rebound on Google AI Momentum—Stocks, Bonds, Dollar All Rise
U.S. tech stocks surged as Google's Gemini 3.0 AI launch fueled optimism, driving gains across equities, bonds, and the dollar amid rising Fed rate cut expectations.
US Treasury yields fell as investors flocked to safe-haven assets amid risk-off sentiment and dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams, with markets now pricing in a higher probability of a December rate cut.
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US Treasuries Rally as Safe-Haven Demand Rises Following Dovish Remarks from New York Fed President
US Treasury yields fell as investors flocked to safe-haven assets amid risk-off sentiment and dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams, with markets now pricing in a higher probability of a December rate cut.
US Treasury yields flattened as short-term bonds weakened, with risk appetite rising on expectations the government shutdown will end; December rate cut bets eased, and the probability of a Fed hold increased to the mid-to-high 30% range.
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[New York Bond Market]Bear Flattening—December Rate Cut Bets Ease as US Government Shutdown Nears End
US Treasury yields flattened as short-term bonds weakened, with risk appetite rising on expectations the government shutdown will end; December rate cut bets eased, and the probability of a Fed hold increased to the mid-to-high 30% range.
US Treasury yields fell as long-end bonds rallied and the yield curve flattened, reversing early losses after weak ADP employment data, with markets focused on the Fed's expected rate cut and QT outlook.
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[New York Bond Market]Long-End Treasuries Rally, Yield Curve Flattens—ADP Weekly Employment Weakness Reversed
US Treasury yields fell as long-dated bonds rallied, reversing early losses after weak ADP employment data; markets anticipate a Fed rate cut and possible end to QT.
U.S. Treasury yields rose as trading volumes remained subdued amid the ongoing government shutdown and the postponement of the September jobs report, with the 10-year yield climbing to 4.12% and ISM services PMI barely holding at 50.0.
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[New York Bond Market]Treasuries Weaken as Trading Slows Amid Delayed Jobs Report
U.S. Treasury yields rose as trading volumes remained subdued amid the ongoing government shutdown and the postponement of the September jobs report, with the 10-year yield climbing to 4.12% and ISM services PMI barely holding at 50.0.
The euro-dollar exchange rate surged to its highest level since September 2021, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut as the September FOMC meeting begins. The U.S. Dollar Index fell below 97, while the market priced in a 96.1% chance of a 25bp rate cut.
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Euro-Dollar Hits Highest Level Since September 2021 Ahead of FOMC Meeting
The euro-dollar exchange rate surged to its highest level since September 2021, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut as the September FOMC meeting begins. The U.S. Dollar Index fell below 97, while the market priced in a 96.1% chance of a 25bp rate cut.
New York Stocks Retreat as AI Bubble Concerns Intensify—Nasdaq Closes Down 1.46%
U.S. stocks ended mixed as the Nasdaq fell 1.46% amid mounting concerns over an AI bubble, with tech giants leading declines and blue chips showing resilience.
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