Believe me, I am keenly aware that a vote for anyone other than the Democratic nominee in the General Election may have horrifying consequences for the future state of the republic.
However, I am unable to not look askance at all the shouting people down for suggesting no-votes or protest votes against Biden in the Primary Election.
The Primary is the time to make a protest message heard at the polls. There is no reasonably conceivable way that Biden will not be the Democratic nominee come the convention. If ever there was a time to send a message by demonstrating poor turnout or votes for Other or whatever other protest vote strategy, it would be now.
The time for messaging to boost turnout so that everyone who may vote does vote is ahead of November.
β¦βͺ#POTUS & #DNCβ¬ must tattoo msg on minds. Scare voters angry b/c of #Israel or whatever who are weighing protest vote w/ greater & real fear of tossing 2024 race to #tfg (a husk of β caricature of β a human) by voting for #Biden, the only sane choice w/ a chance of defeating the worst guy ever!
#2024Election #ProtestVoting #SavingDemocracy #SavingPlanet #SaneChoice #TRE45ON
My research shows and quantifies that had it not been for #austerity, the #EUReferendum would unlikely to have yielded an victory for #Leave. A lot of #Leave voting - between 3-9 percentage points was #protestvoting.
In subsequent work this interpretation was confirmed e.g. in
"Who is not voting for #Brexit anymore?" which is joint work with my student Eleonora Alabrese (who is on the job market this year)
https://www.cesifo.org/en/publications/2018/working-paper/who-not-voting-brexit-anymore
The narrative around #EUReferendum has been a confusing one..
Using estimates of support for Leave across UK local authority areas constructed from a comprehensive 20,000 strong survey, we show that both the level and the geographic variation capturing differential degrees of support for Leave have changed significantly since the 2016 EU referendum. A lot of area characteristics, many of which were previously associated with higher levels of support for Leave, are now significant correlates capturing a swing towards Remain.
In the paper, I use individual-level panel data and data on all electoral contests in the UK to document that places and people more exposed to #austerity were more likely to vote #UKIP or express views associated with #protestvoting.
This was a perceived threat to the #Conservatives as it involved numerous defections resulting in the #Tories internal struggles to arise.
Due to the loud voices in the Tory party, this resulted in the demand for an #EUReferendum to become louder....
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Kai Arzheimer
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Thiemo Fetzer πͺπΊπΊπ¦ - same