Mastodawn

Thiemo Fetzer 🇪🇺🇺🇦 - same Jul 8, 2023

Did #austerity cause #Brexit? In the past weeks there was much talk in the UK on a return of #austerity. I am a Prof of Economics at Warwick University and I wrote a paper in 2018 that shows how #austerity was instrumental to bringing about #Brexit. This is a means of #introduction on here.

Open Access ➡️ https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20181164

The paper shows that #austerity was a pivotal driver of #Brexit result. But that is only half the story: most likely there wouldnt have been an #EUReferendum...

Thiemo Fetzer 🇪🇺🇺🇦 - same Jul 8, 2023

in the first place, had it not been due to #austerity. So what happened? Well, in 2010 the UK government - in the wake of the #GlobalFinancialCrisis launched a massive wave of #austerity.

Don't get me wrong, I am not an fan of an excessively big state, but of a smart state that bases its policy decisions on #evidence not #ideology.

From 2010 on, the UK drastically realigned public spending: away from the future (education) & the working age population (welfare) towards pension spending...

Thiemo Fetzer 🇪🇺🇺🇦 - same

In the paper, I use individual-level panel data and data on all electoral contests in the UK to document that places and people more exposed to #austerity were more likely to vote #UKIP or express views associated with #protestvoting.

This was a perceived threat to the #Conservatives as it involved numerous defections resulting in the #Tories internal struggles to arise.

Due to the loud voices in the Tory party, this resulted in the demand for an #EUReferendum to become louder....

Thiemo Fetzer 🇪🇺🇺🇦 - same Jul 8, 2023

My research shows and quantifies that had it not been for #austerity, the #EUReferendum would unlikely to have yielded an victory for #Leave. A lot of #Leave voting - between 3-9 percentage points was #protestvoting.

In subsequent work this interpretation was confirmed e.g. in
"Who is not voting for #Brexit anymore?" which is joint work with my student Eleonora Alabrese (who is on the job market this year)

https://www.cesifo.org/en/publications/2018/working-paper/who-not-voting-brexit-anymore

The narrative around #EUReferendum has been a confusing one..

Who is NOT Voting for Brexit Anymore?

Using estimates of support for Leave across UK local authority areas constructed from a comprehensive 20,000 strong survey, we show that both the level and the geographic variation capturing differential degrees of support for Leave have changed significantly since the 2016 EU referendum. A lot of area characteristics, many of which were previously associated with higher levels of support for Leave, are now significant correlates capturing a swing towards Remain.

Thiemo Fetzer 🇪🇺🇺🇦 - same Jul 8, 2023

Because often times work has been purely correlational.

To put it simple: there was a confusion between stocks and flows by many analysts.

What matters was the marginal #Brexit voter and those were not die-hard #brexiteers. People were sold a #Brexit that was never deliverable & the UK to date is suffering economically & politically from this disingenuous political campaigning.

"Lies have short legs" the UK will have to come to terms but to do so, it needs to fix itself first.

PJ Coffey Jul 8, 2023

Less than 1/4 people eligible voted for Brexit.
Slightly less than 1/4 people voted against.
Most did not vote.

Brits living outside the UK for more than 10 years were prevented from voting.

This narrative that Britain is in the grip of Tory-mania is based upon poor statistical analysis and a lack of understanding of how much the FPTP voting system "winner takes all" system harms democracy. But billionaire owned press. Get active against them.

Woozle Hypertwin Jul 8, 2023

@Homebrewandhacking @fetzert Can we do a worldwide campaign to do away with FPTP? I would definitely support that.

Thiemo Fetzer 🇪🇺🇺🇦 - same Jul 8, 2023

@woozle @Homebrewandhacking it would be great. I do think the "German" system is quite nice as it tries to combine the local representation with the PR component. But it creates stickiness and skleroticism around reforms and changes. Local citizen assemblies may be needed to support it.

PJ Coffey Jul 8, 2023

@fetzert @woozle

Well, any analysis which neglects Russian funding, as demonstrated by Carole Cadwalladrs successful defence against being sued for libel by Aaron Banks in _UK_ courts, is also deficient.

Austerity was catastrophic for the country and really ground down the living conditions of a lot of people. But organising, radicalising and expanding an existing racist minority helped too.

Thiemo Fetzer 🇪🇺🇺🇦 - same Jul 8, 2023

@Homebrewandhacking @woozle Yes for sure it did, and I wrote about some of the mechanisms of (potential) foreign/malign interference here: http://www.trfetzer.com/opinion-polling-and-biases/

But it takes an unhappy pool of voters to throw some anti-status quo messages and austerity more than ever created that angry pool.

Are Opinion Polls Leave-Biased? | Thiemo Fetzer

JanPV Jul 9, 2023

@fetzert @Homebrewandhacking @woozle Another factor was how poorly the EU promoted itself, or highlighted its benefits, notably to those unlikely to pay much attention normally, within the UK.

Apart from 'bendy bananas' and such negative media nonsense, the only time a typical member of the public would see anything about the EU was a small EU flag in the corner of a sign marking a small industrial development or similar. So selling the lie that the EU was a waste of money became easy.

Thiemo Fetzer 🇪🇺🇺🇦 - same Jul 9, 2023

@JanPV @Homebrewandhacking @woozle yes, I agree. I actually had a project where I wanted to look at a specific work programm that was EU sponsored... having the EU flag on such letters definitely did NOT help...

Woozle Hypertwin Jul 9, 2023

@fetzert @JanPV @Homebrewandhacking

This issue seems analogous to the way the Democratic Party here in the US seems to have difficulty informing people of its work; they seem to just expect loyalists to "vote blue no matter who", and everyone else will be against them regardless. Could this kind of elitism have played a role in the EU's mishandling of PR in the UK?

PJ Coffey Jul 9, 2023

@woozle @fetzert @JanPV

Most citizens that were eligible did not vote.

Woozle Hypertwin Jul 9, 2023

@Homebrewandhacking @fetzert @JanPV

Yes, but I think we're talking about the underlying causes of that?

JanPV Jul 9, 2023

@woozle I don't think anyone expected the UK to leave the EU, not even those who called the referendum. So there was certainly complacency. The various levels of the EU machine have always been criticised for lack of accountability (e.g., if you have time: https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/matthew-ellery/eu-referendum_b_9514608.html)

The associated side of this is the lack of understanding amongst the UK population as to how the EU actually works. So, again, it was easy to cast it as a lumbering bully, acting against UK interests.

The Undemocratic EU Explained - It Will Never Change

The EU is a highly undemocratic organisation ratcheting more and more power with every passing day. It is impervious to public opinion. The people who matter in the law-making process are unelected and therefore unaccountable...

HuffPost UK

JanPV Jul 9, 2023

@fetzert It's all very interesting stuff, and I'm grateful for people like you, analysing things properly.

The part of Brexit that is actually welcome in Wales, where I am, is the end of the 'grant capture' culture, where elites got money for all sorts of projects notionally aimed at helping poor areas, but would then create nice job titles, buy nice cars and generally spend on themselves.

When I once identified fraud with EU money, WEFO were more concerned that money was spent, not how!

MarjorieR Jul 8, 2023

@fetzert for those reading this and who are rightly wary of obfuscated bt.ly links, this one takes you to https://www.cesifo.org/en/publications/2018/working-paper/who-not-voting-brexit-anymore

All links on Mastodon count as 23 characters towards your post’s character limit, no matter how long they really are.

Who is NOT Voting for Brexit Anymore?

Using estimates of support for Leave across UK local authority areas constructed from a comprehensive 20,000 strong survey, we show that both the level and the geographic variation capturing differential degrees of support for Leave have changed significantly since the 2016 EU referendum. A lot of area characteristics, many of which were previously associated with higher levels of support for Leave, are now significant correlates capturing a swing towards Remain.

Thiemo Fetzer 🇪🇺🇺🇦 - same Jul 8, 2023

@marjolica Thanks. I am had used the bit.ly for URL shortening to save characters as Twitter was idiotic on this. Thanks for raising my awareness here. No need for short links anymore!

Woozle Hypertwin Jul 8, 2023

@fetzert ...which is kind of like voting for someone because you're angry at them.