Mathieu GottelandThe only upside of this looming conflict is the reinforcement of Djiboutian-Somali solidarity in the face of #Ethiopia, #Somaliland and Al #Shabaab. #Djibouti will be a key player of #Somalia’s post-#ATMIS future, despite its limited size. Elders of the #Gadabuursi clan had first seeked support in Mogadiscio before turning to their immediate neighbour.
An immediate consequence has been for former #Somaliland ally #Djibouti to support #Awdal’s #Gadabuursi clan against Hargeisa. The site of the Ethiopian naval base, on Gadabuursi territory, is located at barely 25 km from Djibouti’s border.
The MoU envisioned an Ethiopian naval base in non-#Ishaaq (#Gadabuursi) territory, near the Djiboutian border. Gadabuursi elders have reached out to Mogadiscio and #LasAnod. It is therefore possible a reignited conflict for Las Anod could spark a response from both East and West.
https://garoweonline.com/en/news/somalia/somalia-awadal-elders-warn-ethiopia-over-controversial-deal
Meanwhile, the Ethiopian MoU has triggered the demission of the minister for Defence, the arrest of the minister for Agriculture as well as several journalists. It has also greatly strengthened resistance in #Awdal, with the #Gadabuursi lobbying Mogadiscio for support.
While #Somaliland has been weakened by the secession of #SSCKhatumo, contestation from ministers as well as from #Issa and #Gadabuursi clans in #Awdal (where the Ethiopian naval base should be situated) and an electoral crisis, threats of insurgencies in Somaliland and the Somali region of #Ethiopia as well as a war between Ethiopia and #Somalia are looming.