The MoU envisioned an Ethiopian naval base in non-#Ishaaq (#Gadabuursi) territory, near the Djiboutian border. Gadabuursi elders have reached out to Mogadiscio and #LasAnod. It is therefore possible a reignited conflict for Las Anod could spark a response from both East and West.
https://garoweonline.com/en/news/somalia/somalia-awadal-elders-warn-ethiopia-over-controversial-deal
The #Ethiopia-#Somaliland MoU has in part been a desperate gambit by Somaliland president Muse Bihi Abdi to regain legitimacy and hang on to power, and in part an attempt at rebuilding Somaliland’s army to retake #LasAnod. Hargeisa regularly boasted that they would retake the unionist region and the time when they will try again seems near. Troops have been deployed around Oog in Western #Sool, roughly at the boundary between #Ishaaq and #Dhulbahante territory
One way forward could be a dialogue with Mogadiscio, that seemed to have been miraculously restarted last year — two days before the Ethiopian MoU was inked. It nevertheless proved federal #Somalia was willing to go in that direction. Another clue is the lack of federal funding allocated to #SSC-#Khatumo so far. Whether memory of the #Ishaaq #genocide can be grappled with and relations normalized, within or outside of federal Somalia, is another issue entirely.
Mathieu Gotteland
