Jennifer Moore 😷Just saw the slogan "Vote out to help out"!
Of all the harmful things Sunak's been responsible for, I think his EOTHO scheme might be the one I'll remember longest. So ::applause:: to whoever thought of that one.
“Why Is Everyone Sick After We Forced Everyone To Get Sick?” Says Man Who Runs Whole Country
#Sunak #UK #Vertlartnic #LongCovid #EOTHO
Edit: oops, spelt Vertlartnic wrong.
... or "Eat out to help the virus out" as I like to call it.
"£2m on focus groups" !!
“... Rishi Sunak cared passionately about how its introduction would affect his own political standing, but could not have cared less what it would do to Covid infection rates.”
There was some ingenious research on that, comparing places where it rained or didn't, hence rates of people going out. I'm pretty sure it did kill people.
Thiemo Fetzer 🇪🇺🇺🇦 - sameIts still a few hours of #FollowFriday. So here is another #introduction. I am a Prof of #Economics at University of Warwick & Bonn
Around #COVID19 I did a ton of work showing that research can be done in near real time. Now, I am working on "forward looking" research studying #ClimateCrisis #EnergyCrisis.
I am sure the #covid19inquiry - to which I submitted my story - will be revealing.
"Subsidizing the spread of COVID-19: Evidence from the UK’s #EOTHO scheme".
Thiemo FetzerAnd yes... Eat-out-to-help-out was being defended. But on what grounds? What was the welfare analysis behind it? Who were the experts consulted? What was their incentive structure? I must admit, I did feel attacked for doing what I think I should as an academic: research. #EOTHO
Marjorie H MorganBob Pape was a beloved father and foster carer. Did 'eat out to help out' cost him his life? https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/mar/30/bob-pape-was-a-beloved-father-and-foster-carer-did-eat-out-to-help-out-cost-him-his-life
#CovidIsNotOver #CovidIsAirborne #EOTHO #ToryCriminalsUnfitToGovern #ToryCorruption
So, #EOTHO not only had a big impact on spreading #COVID19 -- at a time when we had no effective treatments and no vaccine protection -- it was heavily subject to #Fraud. It did not help the businesses it was meant to protect.
https://www.civilserviceworld.com/news/article/hmrc-estimates-fraud-in-covid-schemes-at-up-to-64bn
In fact even #ContactTracing data saw a drastic uptick in infections linked to restaurant visits. It is right there in the raw data.
As a result, the second wave came faster & was more severe resulting in a 2nd #lockdown that came earlier & lasted longer and I think was much more harmful for the business that #EOTHO was meant to help.
Not heeding expert advice did kill people. Too date, there has been no thorough investigation.
We need to understand how such policies came into this world.
The estimates suggest between 8-17% of all detected #COVID19 infections were due to the #EOTHO scheme was actively contributing to seeding the 2nd wave across the country (which led to a longer second lockdown hurting restaurants that it meant to help).
To further nail causality I exploited the vagaries of the English weather. August saw 150% more rain than usual. The rain wasnt evenly distributed. Areas where it rained during lunch/ dinner hours on #EOTHO days saw fewer restaurant visits.
#EOTHO did cause people eating out...figures from #Opentable showed how people flocked to restaurants on Mon-Wed when the discount was available and likely reduced visits on days the subsidy was not available (weekends).
To establish & quantify the link btw #EOTHO & #COVID19 infections I do two exercises: I use a DID design showing that in areas with higher uptake of #EOHO #COVID infections surged differentially one week after the scheme started & declined again a week after the scheme ended.