Philippine Peso One Of The Most Vulnerable Currencies Of Asia

With a lot of economic disruptions connected with the conflicts in the Middle East, the Philippine Peso has been exposed as one of the most vulnerable currencies of Asia and already the nation is struggling with spiked fuel prices and rising inflation, according to a business news report by the Manila Bulletin.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the announcement by the Manila Bulletin. Some parts in boldface…

Singapore-based DBS Bank Ltd stated that the Philippine peso is emerging as one of Asia’s most vulnerable currencies as deepening global oil crisis exposes the nation’s heavy reliance on imported energy and the lack of government subsidies.

DBS wrote in a commentary published last Friday that the peso is expected to underperform in the foreign exchange (forex) market alongside the Indian rupee, which recently hit a record low against the United States (US) dollar. The peso also plummeted to another all-time low last Friday, finishing at P60.55 per dollar.

Like India, the Philippines is grappling with vulnerabilities from oil price shocks, which have led the peso to reach a new all-time low, according to DBS senior forex strategist Philip Wee and forex and credit strategist Chang Wei Liang.

“Similarly, the peso remains highly vulnerable,” Wee and Liang said. Last Friday, the peso breached the 60.5 level as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified, and the central bank stood firm in its view that there is no immediate need to defend the currency.

Wee and Liang said the Philippines stands as “most exposed to oil price pass-through due to zero subsidies and a 90 percent energy reliance on Gulf energy.”

Japanese financial giant MUFG Bank Ltd. and think tank Capital Economics also emphasized the Philippines’ high exposure to external market volatility, which is hurting the peso amid investors’ risk-off sentiment.

MUFG analysts said the peso is among the “weakest performers in the region” last week, declining by a total of 4.9 percent since the Israel-Iran conflict flare-up. It was surpassed only by the Thai baht, which has dropped 5.9 percent month-to-date.

Following the peso are the declines in the South Korean won (4.7 percent), Indian rupee (4.1 percent), and Malaysian ringgit (three percent). Meanwhile, the Vietnamese dong and Chinese yuan have been the most resilient currencies, with only around a one percent decline each.

DBS said that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is facing a dilemma: it must contain skyrocketing consumer prices while defending the peso amid extreme vulnerability to the worsening energy crisis, with the impacts more pronounced in heavy oil-importing economies.

Citing metrics from an Institute of International Finance (IIF) study, Wee and Liang labeled the currencies of the Philippines, South Korea, and Malaysia as “somewhat vulnerable” to oil price spikes stemming from the Middle East war.

Such metrics include direct trade exposure to oil imports, the growth impact of oil usage intensity, and vulnerability to agricultural and fertilizer supply shocks.

DBS assessed India, Thailand, and Vietnam as the most vulnerable to oil market shocks, while China and Indonesia are the least sensitive.

Despite the peso’s recent weakness, DBS projects the local currency to rebound toward 57.8 per dollar by the end of 2026. However, the pair is also seen climbing back to 59.9 by late 2027 and remaining within the 59 level through 2030.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the government of the Philippines and its economic managers will be able to execute moves to prevent strengthen the Peso ensuring economic growth?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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