07 - Beyond Confounders โ€” Causal Inference for the Brave and True

#statstab #497 On the Statistical Analysis of Experiments
With Manipulation Checks

Thoughts: All psychologists reading this title will panic. Yes, you can't just delete data and assume all is well.

#assumptions #QRPs #estimand #causalinference #ITT #ATE #bias

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/25152459241297537

Mediators, confounders, colliders โ€“ a crash course in causal inference

Although one would think that the basic concepts of statistics should be the same across all sciences, there is an amazing heterogeneity between fields in how statistics is taught and practiced. Onโ€ฆ

theoretical ecology

#statstab #485 Bayesian ANCOVA and the ATE

Thoughts: Still grappling with the implications of using the causal inference approach to randomized experiments. But it's interesting.

#ATE #causalinference #ancova #ANOVA #rstats #estimand #counterfactuals

https://solomonkurz.netlify.app/blog/2025-07-20-within-person-factorial-experiments-log-normal-reaction-time-data/

#statstab #482 Introducing Causion: A web app for playing with DAGs

Thoughts: A very cool app. Let's you see exactly what your assumptions and DGP mean for your causal model.

#causal #causalinference #DAG #DAGs #dgp #tutorial #guide #education #pedagogy

https://pedermisager.org/blog/causion-dag-simulator/

Introducing Causion: A web app for playing with DAGs | Peder M. Isager

Personal website of Dr. Peder M. Isager

Peder M. Isager

Orthogonal Representation Learning for Estimating Causal Quantities

#CausalInference

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2502.04274

#statstab #474 {DeclareDesign} Observational : causal

Thoughts: If you want to do causal research with OS there is a lot more to consider than in #473

#design #research #rstats #education #tutorial #pedagogy #DiD #DAGs #causalinference

https://book.declaredesign.org/library/observational-causal.html

16  Observational : causal โ€“ Research Design in the Social Sciences

Surprising result, nice study design

When "Likes" went private on X there was no detectable change in the number of Likes received on posts by "high reputational risk" accounts

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2601.11140

#CausalInference #DifferenceInDifference #SocialMedia #Research

#statstab #457 Race as a Bundle of Sticks: Designs that Estimate Effects of Seemingly Immutable Characteristics

Thoughts: The theoretical framework a researcher uses will affect the causal inference they can make.

#estimand #causalinference #rubin

https://www.annualreviews.org/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-polisci-032015-010015

Race as a Bundle of Sticks: Designs that Estimate Effects of Seemingly Immutable Characteristics

Although understanding the role of race, ethnicity, and identity is central to political science, methodological debates persist about whether it is possible to estimate the effect of something immutable. At the heart of the debate is an older theoretical question: Is race best understood under an essentialist or constructivist framework? In contrast to the โ€œimmutable characteristicsโ€ or essentialist approach, we argue that race should be operationalized as a โ€œbundle of sticksโ€ that can be disaggregated into elements. With elements of race, causal claims may be possible using two designs: (a) studies that measure the effect of exposure to a racial cue and (b) studies that exploit within-group variation to measure the effect of some manipulable element. These designs can reconcile scholarship on race and causation and offer a clear framework for future research.

Annual Reviews