Philosophy of Statistics (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)

Confirmation (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)

Abduction (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)

I plan to having a significant focus on #Bayesianism in my advanced #philsci course, next term. How much time should I plan to devote to explaining the basics, assuming that most students lack any background in probability and no math skills?
Bluesky

Bluesky Social

I posted this yesterday, but I should have noted that my Cambridge Element ‘Probability and Inductive Logic’ is free to download for the next four weeks. Get amongst it!

https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009210171

#philosophy #Bayesianism #induction #confirmation #probability #philosophyofscience

My long-in-preparation Cambridge Element ‘Probability and Inductive Logic’ is now available.

https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009210171

Abstract: Reasoning from inconclusive evidence, or 'induction', is central to science and any applications we make of it. For that reason alone it demands the attention of philosophers of science. This element explores the prospects of using probability theory to provide an inductive logic: a framework for representing evidential support. Constraints on the ideal evaluation of hypotheses suggest that the overall standing of a hypothesis is represented by its probability in light of the total evidence, and incremental support, or confirmation, indicated by the hypothesis having a higher probability conditional on some evidence than it does unconditionally. This proposal is shown to have the capacity to reconstruct many canons of the scientific method and inductive inference. Along the way, significant objections are discussed, such as the challenge of inductive scepticism, and the objection that the probabilistic approach makes evidential support arbitrary.

#probability #induction #bayesianism #philosophy

Probability and Inductive Logic

Cambridge Core - Logic - Probability and Inductive Logic

Cambridge Core
Why you are not allowed to say that your 95% confidence interval contains the true parameter with a probability of 95%

A shibboleth is a custom, such as a choice of phrasing, that distinguishes one group of people from another. The term goes back to the Hebrew Bible, in which the inhabitants of Gilead identify members of the tribe of Ephraim by the way they pronounce the word “shibboleth” (Hebrew for the part of the

The 100% CI

https://bigthink.com/13-8/qbism-quantum-physics/

A post promising a series about #quantum #bayesianism. So far so good, this is worth reading to see where it's headed.

"QBism": The most radical interpretation of quantum mechanics ever

"Quantum Bayesianism" offers a radical interpretation of quantum physics, suggesting that quantum states are not objective realities.

Big Think
Beyond the applied ML context, I see a lot of connections to the limitations of #utilitarianism, utilitarian aggregation / #populationEthics, #rationality, #longtermism, subjective #Bayesianism, etc. But would anyone read any of that?

The No Free lunch theorem implies that we need #Bayesianism

Ok, let me explain. The fact that there cannot be a general purpose algorithm for everything means that we need a prior to solve a certain problem.

Imagine for example that you want to deblur an image, the more a priori you have, the best you will perform. Is it a face or some text? what is the font? what is the language? what is the type or blur (Gaussian kernel, pixelisation, etc)?

#NFL #AI #MachineLearning #Bayes