History is the study of human mess.
And that mess matters. Because we’re not going to navigate the 21st century with clean models. The next pandemics, climate shocks, political collapses—they’re not going to play by the rules of probability theory.
https://www.joanwestenberg.com/why-are-all-the-smart-people-so-bad-at-history/
Why Are All the Smart People So Bad at History?
You know the type. MIT-trained, Substack-fluent, AI-curious. They can quote Hume, dabble in Bayesianism, and confidently wield phrases like "regression discontinuity" and "effective optimization landscape" in casual conversation. They’re very concerned about the future. Superintelligence. Existential risk. Civilizational stability. The longtermist dream: guiding the ship of humanity through narrow

