David Manheim

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209 Following
231 Posts
Humanity's long term future can be amazing - let's make sure it is.
Working at @alter_org_il, @TechnionLive
Previously, @asaferfuture, @1DaySooner, @superforecaster, @PardeeRAND
Twitterhttps://twitter.com/davidmanheim
Google Scholarhttps://scholar.google.com/citations?user=6-M1ZIUAAAAJ&hl=en
Blueskydavidmanheim.bsky.social

anyway i think that if you are in a position to make decisions in an organization that you expect to be around in ~25 years and you want to make a real difference, look at what software you couldn't do without and imagine that the company that makes it goes out of business, gets bought by Microsoft, or pivots to AI

what would you do? is there anything out there that would fill that need? if not, can you contribute to an open source project - dev time or money - to make it happen?

As I've said before, there are multiple parts of Israel.

And yes, the IDF seems determined to follow international humanitarian law, per the below article.

Netanyahu's coalition in government, though? Very much the opposite. Hence food/medical supply blockades, no humanitarian pause, and similar policies.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/07/opinions/israel-hamas-gaza-not-war-crimes-spencer/

Even if you were to discount the official death toll by half we are still speaking about a devastation that took years of bombing in WW2 in 3 weeks.

This is a reminder that *there are no precision strikes in a densely populated city*. While I appreciate Israel's efforts (lawyers overseeing strikes etc), the truth is: If the strategic bombing campaigns of WW2 were terrible, this is the same terrible, at a faster rate.

Reality is more complicated than our opinions usually want it to be.

But facts exist independent of our beliefs. And if there are facts which don't fit your narrative, the narrative is wrong.

New on 404 Media: verified Twitter 'OSINT' accounts are destroying the Israel-Palestine information ecosystem. What used to be a network of reliable experts has been taken over by profit and click driven verified accounts. Everyone loses out. "Unprecedented" levels.

I spoke to multiple respected OSINT experts who have been tracking conflict on Twitter for years. Now after Musk's changes on verification, profit:
- "all hell broke loose"
- “this entire space is 90% grifters”
- “It just creates more noise and less signal

https://www.404media.co/twitter-verified-osint-accounts-are-destroying-the-israel-palestine-information-ecosystem/

‘Verified’ OSINT Accounts Are Destroying the Israel-Palestine Information Ecosystem

The problem with profit and engagement driven misinformation from pseudo-OSINT accounts during the Israel-Palestine conflict is "unprecedented." One expert said after Musk's recent changes "all hell broke loose."

404 Media

Worried about how to use #metrics effectively given the evitable problems predicted by the Goodhart-Campbell law? Or, are you living in ignorant data science-y bliss, having never heard of the Goodhart-Campbell law?

Check out this Review by @davidmanheim exploring why metrics tend to fail when they are used as targets and what can be done to use them more effectively in decision-making and management.

https://www.cell.com/patterns/fulltext/S2666-3899(23)00221-0

#datascience

Now published in Patterns, my paper on how to do metric design better.

This is important everywhere - academics use simple metrics for tenure, governments often perform poorly using metrics for rules, and employees have targets that hurt their company. But there are ways to mitigate these problems!

https://www.cell.com/patterns/fulltext/S2666-3899(23)00221-0

Second Techbro: Have you noticed that our blog actually says that "tech ethics" is the enemy?
Marc Andreessen: I don't... er-
Second Techbro: Marc... are we the baddies?

You're saying that the generative model isn't a derivative work of all this copyrighted material?

Definitely not - these are high dimensional AI models that learn billions of weights from billions of different copyrighted training inputs.

If anything, it's a *gradient* work!

I have been avoiding Zoom for teaching, professional and personal meetings as much as I could since the start of the pandemic, using and recommending Jitsi instead.

The new updated terms of Zoom just give you new reasons if you were accepting Zoom so far.