Mastodawn

A quick thread on the intensity of Israel's invasion of Gaza. Language about "precision strikes" can distract from understanding just how intense the aerial campaign was.

Strategic bombing of civilian infrastructure was a staple of the Allied WW2 strategy. The estimated death toll among the civilian population was 350k-500k, on a population of 80m, so about 0.4-0.6% over a period of 3 years.

If the Gaza death toll is ballpark accurate, 8000 deaths on 2m inhabitants is 0.4% in *three weeks*.

HalvarFlake Oct 31, 2023

Even if you were to discount the official death toll by half we are still speaking about a devastation that took years of bombing in WW2 in 3 weeks.

This is a reminder that *there are no precision strikes in a densely populated city*. While I appreciate Israel's efforts (lawyers overseeing strikes etc), the truth is: If the strategic bombing campaigns of WW2 were terrible, this is the same terrible, at a faster rate.

Nfoonf Oct 31, 2023

@HalvarFlake 99,9% of germany was never bombed you are comparing an urbanized area with a with a rural agricultural state. to mean anything you should compare to a city like hamburg or berlin. even then what would be the benfit of that? hamas gets its legitimization from civil casualties. it needs them, and it will always take measures to keep them as high as possible.

Nfoonf Oct 31, 2023

@HalvarFlake hamas and iran are the only geopolitical ruling bodies, that put their geopolitical goals (the destruction of israel) before their interior politics. even in relative peaceful time, iran takes bigger measures to supply hamas with scarce products like medical supplies than it takes to supply their own people.

Nfoonf Oct 31, 2023

@HalvarFlake this is the problem we westerners have with hamas and russia at the moment. russia does not care about death toll of their soldiers, which makes it hard to fight. how do you defeat an opponent that does not care about its own soldiers? same wirh hamas. Hamas declares in its carta, that death is a sacrifice that every inhabitant of gaza must be willing to bring at any time and any age. so how do you fight a war there?

HalvarFlake Oct 31, 2023

@Nfoonf the statement that "99.9% of Germany was never bombed" is simply false when measured by population (which you have to do because nobody cares if you bomb an empty area). It's *even false when measured by area*, which is an achievement.

The Ruhrgebiet alone harbored more than 5% of the German population and *was* carpet bombed.

I know it's difficult to engage soberly with the facts in these heated times, but please try.

Nfoonf Oct 31, 2023

@HalvarFlake i stay corrected the 99,9% was BS and you are right. yeah arguing soberly became more difficult in the last few years. I should have thought a few seconds more to make a valid argument.

HalvarFlake Oct 31, 2023

@Nfoonf thank you. *Hug*. I am sorry for the terrible situation. Let's hope there's a better future for everybody in our lifetimes.

@HalvarFlake doesn't that depend on what fraction of the alleged 2000 were combatants?

dr2chase Oct 31, 2023

@stark @HalvarFlake Depends how you define "aligned", doesn't it? You're trying to turn a squishy word into a number. (This is why we often see counts of dead children, to neutralize attempts to make some deaths not matter.)

stefanct Oct 31, 2023

@HalvarFlake and that's (immediate) deaths only.

ZT Oct 31, 2023

@HalvarFlake Either you say that Hamas has found valid "hacks" around norms, like firing from schools and mosques and locating military bases under hospitals and preventing civilians from evacuating and not sharing provisions with the civilians, and since these hacks are valid, now Hamas has an "I win" button/strategy, and nothing can be done against them, or you say that Hamas should not win, and you fight Hamas.

ZT Oct 31, 2023

@HalvarFlake See https://twitter.com/MEMRIReports/status/1718973338486260097

MEMRI (@MEMRIReports) on X

Hamas Official Mousa Abu Marzouk: The Tunnels in Gaza Were Built to Protect Hamas Fighters, Not Civilians; Protecting Gaza Civilians Is the Responsibility of the U.N. and Israel #Hamas #Gaza

X (formerly Twitter)

HalvarFlake Oct 31, 2023

@ZTarantov I think what I am saying is "please everybody be aware of the intensity of this". What I am also saying that Israel as a civil society will own what is happening now for generations, and being a democracy, in a different way than people that weren't born when Hamas last ran elections.

The road to strategic victory for Israel lies in prying civilians away from Hamas. My worry is that Bibi sees that that is difficult, and in true Bibi form, takes an alternative that is politically...

HalvarFlake Oct 31, 2023

@ZTarantov ...expedient, and may even include a tactical "win", but at enormous strategic costs for Israel as a free democracy (not to mention civilians in Gaza).

Afaict, the current gov isn't doing enough to help separate civilians from Hamas.

ZT Oct 31, 2023

@HalvarFlake I wish IDF could move unarmed civilians, or at least women and children, away from where the fighting happens. I have no idea how to do that. I hope IDF does, because obviously Hamas will try to increase civilian casualties and no amount of diplomatic skills (which are lacking anyway) will cover for results like Aleppo or Mariupol.

ZT Oct 31, 2023

@HalvarFlake And of course it could be worse than those examples, there AFAIK civilians were not prevented from leaving. Does Hamas have an RPG team for every building, to get every building shot? Possibly. 😟

🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦 leastaction Nov 2, 2023

@HalvarFlake There is no such thing as precision strikes.