I opened the first IPCC report, released in 1990, and copied their scenario graph for CO2 emissions.
I marked the latest data with a red dot. Carbon dioxide emissions in 2023 were 40.7 GtCO2 (= 11.09 GtC).
Whatever you think about the IPCC you must admit their business-as-usual calculations were pretty robust.
Edit: previous version of this post also talked about methane, but here story is not as clear, see down below: https://mas.to/@jackofalltrades/111731258956894444
Jack of all trades (@[email protected])
@[email protected] As to methane, it's more complicated, and it seems I've made a mistake. IPCC 1992 Supplement (pages 10 and 30) says that annual emissions of CH4 amount to about 500 Mt, of which 60% is anthropogenic. That would give 300 Mt though, but their graph clearly has a value of about 370 Mt. Maybe they overestimated them in the 1990 report?


