#ClimateDiary “Above is a fictional weather forecast for August 18, 2050, broadcast by French television in 2014, intended to warn against the disastrous consequences of global warming.

Below is the weather forecast for June 22, 2026.”

(By @jakubwiech on unmentionable)

This brings out super starkly how #ClimateChange has accelerated so much more quickly than we thought even just 12 years ago.

@pvonhellermannn

these developments never aren't shocking (even if they are not surprising)

@pvonhellermannn @jakubwiech frogs in a pot metaphor too real

@pvonhellermannn

Faster than we ever thought…

@xs4me2 @pvonhellermannn what’s been obvious for a while is that scientists are conservative and understate the risks. It looks like it will get worse faster than predicted.

@Lats @xs4me2 @pvonhellermannn

or perhaps the more concerned scientist are accurate and then played down by politicians

@Lats
Given the enormous backlash they have gotten it is quite understandable that scientist tended to give conservative numbers that were less easily refuted. However, very worrisome as to whether tipping points have already been past or will be soon without any serious counteraction.
@xs4me2 @pvonhellermannn
@pst @xs4me2 @pvonhellermannn from what I can see, tipping points are probably passed however it will be a while for the evidence to be confirmed. When listen to Jason Box talk about the actual Greenland ice melt you get the feeling that the mainstream is lagging. It’s a worry.
#jasonbox
@Lats
Yeah, I am very scared that we are already much further down the path of irreparable change than is acknowledged. One would almost suspect the present fascist wave is a fabricated distraction for the inevitable destruction that is coming.
@xs4me2 @pvonhellermannn
@Lats @xs4me2 @pvonhellermannn none of this is the fault of scientists.
The top is not a scientific presentation. Predictions have been more accurate than not, but things are accelerating more than widely expected.
The fault is that of politicians and media primarily (and those who bought them, with their continued existence and greed permitted).
@Lats @xs4me2 @pvonhellermannn COP climate scientists' methodology excluded any recent, alarming, research into sea levels, acidification, ice-melt, AMOC etc. from their models. And lobbyists watered things down further. This lowered assessments of risk, and error bounds. Then policy makers adopted a max CO2 concentration that only had at best a 50% chance of meeting their 1.5C limit even according to these conservative models, ... and then did nothing, except adopt policies that make it worse.

@xs4me2 @pvonhellermannn

Don't worry too awful much.
The Earth will be completely fine and easily recover once we're gone.

@Walruths @xs4me2 @pvonhellermannn

Always hated this reasoning, just sounds like an excuse to avoid responsibility.

Like, yeah, the literal rock of the planet will be here. Cool. Meanwhile, we're destroying life and ecosystems that have evolved over millions of years, forever. It's not some great comfort that slimemold and cockroaches will inherit the earth.

@contrasocial @xs4me2 @pvonhellermannn

Oh, I want no mistake made, here. I take full responsibility in not successfully ending the actions taken by the selfish, profit-seeking oil barons and politicians ruining our planet. As responsibility goes, we're set, but that really wasn't in question.

As for what to do now, I'd say do everything you can until you can't, optimisic or not, good outcome or not. Less pain is always better than some.

@Walruths @contrasocial @xs4me2 @pvonhellermannn
^ this. In the absence of complete success, even some success is better than none, in terms of buying time and avoiding suffering.

@contrasocial

And for those who have children and grandchildren, what happens in the next 50-100 years is still of great importance.

@Walruths @xs4me2 @pvonhellermannn

@axnxcamr @contrasocial @xs4me2 @pvonhellermannn

Very much so! Don't stop your efforts, by all means. Less pain is always better than some. Always care for the coming generations.

@Walruths @axnxcamr @contrasocial @xs4me2 @pvonhellermannn Path of highest effect might be to eat the rich. Path of least resistance would apparently be to let the rich eat the rest of us. As a species, humans are stupid 🫣

@Walruths @pvonhellermannn

You might be right there, just a 40000 year ripple of physical evidence of some organized cultural activity…

@xs4me2 @pvonhellermannn

We are 'the ancients' in some faroff society's scifi novel.

@Walruths @xs4me2 @pvonhellermannn that's an absolutely irrelevant line of argument. People and life by the billions to suffer and die.
And it was not inevitable.

@noodlemaz @xs4me2 @pvonhellermannn

>was

Your pessimism is in your wrist as well as mine is. It isn't an argument, it's the ending we all chose, whether from inaction or lack of care or both.

All you can do is the best you can for the ones still here. Be glad it's that much.

@pvonhellermannn
Super frightening! I have experienced 49 degree Celsius heat, with the added ‘bonus’ of high humidity, when camping inland (ie not at the coast) along the Fitzroy River (Western Australia): I finally understood what early ‘explorers’ like Stuart & his party experienced: the need to drink water (ie to rehydrate) can dominate everything you do.
@Su_G that sounds horrendous!
@pvonhellermannn
Yes, the experience was a real eye-opener. 🙄
You read in the journals of the ‘early explorers’ of team members driven mad by thirst, & stealing the water rations of their team mates, and you finally understand it. The fact is that there comes a point when you simply cannot drink enough, quickly enough, to replace what you are losing due to the heat & humidity. It is frightening. 😱

@Su_G @pvonhellermannn

I'm guessing you're both familiar with "wet bulb" temperature and the first chapter of " the ministry for the Future" by Kom Stanley Robinson.

This reminded me of that first chapter, which has left a lasting impression on me.

I've never read these early explorer stories/diaries, so I should look that up!

@folfdk
Have read Robinson; the only sci-fi author I’ve read who has a political-economic take on what it will take to get climate-related change at a global level/ scale. We are a long way from Robinson’s resolution. 🫤

JM Stuart’s journals are worth a read. He trekked south to north 3 times (the telegraph, finished 1872 was a product) & was basically a water-finding machine (he had horses) & a good basic geologist with a good feel for country. Lots of his initial observations about the base & precious metals likely to be found have been proven true. I grew up on a gold & copper mine lease in the middle of his journeys. 😊

@pvonhellermannn

@Su_G
Thanks for the pointer, just found the JM Stuart society
http://johnmcdouallstuart.org.au/expedition-one
What a wonderful old-school no-nonsense website!

@pvonhellermannn

John McDouall Stuart Society » Expedition One

@folfdk
Let me know what you think of his writing. 🙂

@pvonhellermannn

@Su_G @pvonhellermannn If you're there too long you die. Adaption or not. The higher the humidity the lower the needed temperature. At 100% you're dead after 6 hours latest. If youre physically not at the top of the game, likely much earlier. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-70485-1
Deadly heat stress conditions are already occurring - Nature Communications

The authors use a physiological approach, finding recent extreme heat events had deadly heat stress conditions, particularly for fully exposed older people. Conditions were well below wet-bulb temperatures of 35˚C, a common heat stress indicator.

Nature
@pvonhellermannn @jakubwiech The real one is for June 22nd, the "fantasy" one is from august, so yeah, this is much worse...

@pvonhellermannn @jakubwiech That's terrifying

If only we had received some kind of warning /s

@andycarolan @pvonhellermannn @jakubwiech But climate change isn't real... 🙄

It's shocking because we're getting ths weather in places where habitation just is not built for it.

Only many governments are doing absolutely nothing about it.

@retrosponge @andycarolan @pvonhellermannn Too many political systems have mechanisms that essentially amount to legal bribery. It puts the politicians in the pockets of the groups with the most profits which, lo and behold, tend to be the ones that do the most harm (morals don't drive quarterly profit margins!)
@nazokiyoubinbou It feels ridiculous that the 1% can have this much influence on the 99%... if only we could do something about it @retrosponge @pvonhellermannn
@retrosponge I think the elite have decided that it's too expensive to save humanity, so they are just sucking up all the cash to wait it out in their silos @pvonhellermannn @jakubwiech

@andycarolan @pvonhellermannn @jakubwiech Sadly I think you are correct.

I wonder if any of them have stopped to think what they're gonna do if the core of humanity is wiped out. Who's going to work their fields? Who's going to make their stuff?

I mean, these people don't know how to do anything except hoard money.

@retrosponge Isn't that why they are deep into AI? Pinning their hopes on that becoming their slaves while the rest of us feed the machine? @pvonhellermannn @jakubwiech
@andycarolan @retrosponge @pvonhellermannn yeah, we're building something disgusting in here
@andycarolan @retrosponge @pvonhellermannn @[email protected] these monsters don't care about humanity. they're all chasing posthumanism.
@kathimmel @retrosponge @pvonhellermannn Agreed. I'm at a loss as to what to do about it though... it feels like shouting into the void now. We are told to be more sustainable, fly less, drive less, but then we see multiple private jets ferrying the 1% around the world, all while investing in planet destroying technologies.
@andycarolan Oh I hate how much sense this thread makes /rubs temples in frustration

@retrosponge @andycarolan @pvonhellermannn @jakubwiech
The flaw to this line of thinking is that it assumes that they have the ability or inclination to plan long-term.

Short-term gain is assumed to be infinite, just like the idea that the stock market 'number go up' forever, and they assume things will just continue to fall into place for them 'in the future'.

Sorry... I'm super ultra salty tonight 😬

@pvonhellermannn Fake news. All you have to do is have as many children as possible, and drive as much as possible, tankers if possible. Oh, and garbage, lots of garbage. The Earth is just a bad little bitch that likes to be put in her place. Just treat mother nature like the dirty bitch that she is.

@pvonhellermannn @datacyclist @jakubwiech Is there a source to verify the above image?

There has been too much fake news lately.

Update: Yes, there are sources. Thanks to @ei8gvb @sll

WMO Weather Reports 2050 - France

YouTube
@ei8gvb @adrian @pvonhellermannn @datacyclist @jakubwiech "canicule 1 été sur 4" (heatwave one summer out of four) dog I wish 😭 more like 4 heatwaves per summer (+1 in spring, and 1 in autumn...)
Le faux bulletin météo d'Évelyne Dhéliat du 18 août 2050, c'est maintenant | INA

C'était en 2014, Évelyne Dhéliat anticipait le bulletin météo d'un jour d'été 2050. De la science-fiction ? Pas tellement... si l'on en croit les températures annoncées pour ce mois de juin 2026.

ina.fr
@pvonhellermannn @jakubwiech the same people who in 2014 would call those exaggerating and catastrophizing will today say "it's always been hot in summer"
@pvonhellermannn Well, dang! Will you look at that? 24 years knocked off their prediction😯
Many thanks to the Vicomte, for the correction😊

@Tooden
Or 24 years?

I hope 2050 is not 14 years away 😅
@pvonhellermannn

@folfdk You are correct. My maths failed me. 24 years. In 10 years time, we will have become underground dwellers. @pvonhellermannn

@Tooden
Don't worry, I'm still trying to convince myself that the end of second world war is 80 years ago and not 50 (what is roughly what it was when I went to elementary school).

So, not so much your math skills as the unfathomable world we live in?

@pvonhellermannn