"Why can't Trump get his story straight about the nukes?"
No one on the CNN panel will *really* answer this question: Trump just ... says stuff.
Creates a kind of halting problem:
“We obliterated the regime’s nuclear program”
(but then there is no reason for war so he says)
"They are close to nuclear"
(but that sounds like we messed up so he says)
“We obliterated the nuclear program”
(but then there is no reason for war so he says)
♾️
etc.
There is a cover story for why the US attacked Iran. One that is almost believable. The argument goes like this:
Iran was developing a drone and missile program rather like the Iron Dome that would make it "impossible" for the US to bomb them, and that would mean it's impossible to stop them if they wanted to make nuclear weapons. So they had to be stopped from doing this now.
Does Iran have the right to defend itself? It's an ugly argument.
Trump has said he will "bomb them back into the stone age" -- This is the solution they have. Cripple anyone who might become able to defend themselves. Every time I hear the phrase "bomb them back into the stone age" a little bile rises in my throat. I'm an American. How must this seem to the people of Iran. What will they vow to do because of our childish chauvinism?
This view of non-western countries is common. It will be our undoing.
But the other point, (which I got side-tracked from thinking about the phrase "bomb them into the stone age" ... ) is that the cover story I just articulated is too complex for Trump to even attempt to communicate. That is his diabolical populist instinct. He never confuses his base. Never uses big words or ideas.
Never makes them learn anything since for some people the feeling of learning makes them feel ... stupid.
And how do you unpack that? How do you deprogram someone from a place where learning things, and realizing how little they know is so horrible?
It's impossible to learn if you cannot admit that you do not already know everything you need to know about the world.
I think people *do* feel bad about what they don't know. Like not being able to find Iran on a map. That can feel embarrassing. But we can look at the maps. Read the history.
I think the shame and that can be induced by learning new things is tied to an essentialist and immutable view of what it means to be intelligent and wise.
For them "Intelligence" isn't something that you do, for these people it's something that you *are*
But this is false. To be intelligent you simply need to be open to learning new things every day. Willing to grow. That's it.
@futurebird It is at this point I think it's important to point out that right wing American culture actively celebrates stupidity. They actively eschew education, because every time they send their kids off to get educated, they come back atheists with liberal values. They celebrate repetetive task work "like daddy used to do" and "figure it out for themselves."
Which is why they can get so far down a wrong path. No course correction.
This is true.
I wish we could blame it all on the contempt and elitism of people of "educated classes" -- I think about my grandmother often she would say things like that. She had a 6th grade education. All her kids went to college because she made them, and then grand kids too.
But she also thought we were full of ourselves and pretentious. And she knew things, understood things I never will.
Because he is a crook!
@futurebird Great points, well timed. I literally just a few minutes ago had conversation where I said “I have to admit that 3 weeks ago, I wasn’t really familiar with geography of Strait of Hormuz & Persian Gulf, & had to look them up on a map.”
On some level, you can’t learn anything if you aren’t readily willing to admit ignorance. To the extent that narcissism prevents a person from admitting that…
@futurebird Don't forget, they also grew up in a culture that abhors the concepts of intelligence.
There's the obvious of course: see the way "nerds" have been looked down on for a very long time now. And Hollywood, of course, helps promote that sentiment.
But also, I can tell you first-hand as just someone who couldn't fit in, seen as being more intelligent (regardless of whether I actually am) they just... *hate.* They don't even know why.
Part of the problem is a culture of people who know things and use their greater knowledge to humiliate those who know less. I encounter this in job interviews all the time.
I *never* do this to other people, it's evil. But when you are being attacked, the instinct is to hate the people who know more.
I like to think that I'm in the same place but in growing up I had to get over a bit of self-consciousness and imposter syndrome driven anxieties. When encountering new people I wanted to bury them with expertise because I was scared someone would ask me to leave or decide I didn't belong. So I didn't like to admit when I didn't understand something. I'd try to play along then go home and study in secret.
Now, I just say "I don't understand" as soon as I'm at all confused and I can learn things much faster. The kind of people I want to be respected by aren't phased by this, and the kind of people I used to worry about impressing were never going to be impressed by me no matter what I did. So it's much faster if I just ask questions when I have them and admit what I don't know.
Saves time.
"You don't even know how -- works."
"That's right, I *don't* know how -- works. Will you explain it to me?"
When I discovered that this kind of person who I was so scared of finding out what I didn't know so often could NOT explain the topic themselves. Oooh. All of those worries vanished.
And if they can explain it? Well, now I know too. I win... or I win.
Wish I could have learned this at a younger age.
On reflection over many years I've come to understand that one of the most useful things I learned as a baby mathematician was the value of admitting that I don't know what I don't know and that I don't understand what I don't understand. I definitely didn't get this at all as an undergraduate! I learned in graduate school by example -- mathematicians universally talk to one another this way because it's the only way to get some math done. Repeatedly hearing various world-experts on subject X answer questions by stating that they don't know the answer as if it's the most natural thing -- which of course it is -- teaches this lesson really effectively.
So far, Iran has been building drones for Russia to use in the war against Ukraine. In future, Iran will likely build these $95 surface-to-air missiles and use them against various targets in the US.
@futurebird that’s the USA’s MO. Always has been.
This time does seem worse - even more gibberish. I thought Dubya was bad…
I am shocked by the number of world leaders who do not understand that the only reason our allies and our homes cities are not being attacked is because no one wants to do that. If someone wants to hurt us badly enough, if they don't care about the escalation because the US has shuttered all paths to the nation having any real future, then we are cooked. We could strike back but everyone loses.
Some things are beyond US control.
@futurebird @hazelnot I will drop this here. The implications are disturbing and aggravating.
https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/iran-will-retaliate-in-the-us-we-may-not-see-it-in-time
This administration is not interested in diplomacy or intelligence. These are the things that keep us safe. I would feel even safer if Iran was a trade partner and our economies were linked, if there were sports games and academic conferences between the nations. If Teharan was a tourist destination for all of the remarkable archeology.
But the US sees Iran as a lesser nation. A region of resource extraction with exotic annoying natives they think we can learn nothing from.
That is the chauvinism that will lead to bloodshed.
@futurebird @hazelnot And has led to such as well.
Also I'm reminded of the sacking of the China Hands at the State dept. A move during the Mcarthy era because the ones who were informed were undersirable and seen as unloyal.
Not what we see here but there are parallels.
@InkySchwartz @futurebird @hazelnot
In January 2001, Bush had not won the election, and was unpopular and rightly viewed as illegitimate.
He was determined to lower taxes and cut spending, so he eliminated many of the wasteful antiterrorism programmes started by Clinton.
On September 10th, he was not liked, was having trouble passing laws and was seen as not competent to hold his role.
A few weeks later, he was enormously powerful and able to pass legislation that had been previously unthinkably fascist.
So, like, why would Trump's handlers be _against_ a retaliatory strike? If he gets blamed, it will be forgotten amidst all the other chaos. And if he isn't blamed, they can rush to fill in all the blanks in their existing policy.
@hazelnot @InkySchwartz @futurebird
A bunch of wealthy Republicans disrupted the recount and the Supreme Court declared Bush president (by stopping all unfinished recounts).
Several months later an audit showed that he lost.
@celesteh @hazelnot @futurebird Which audit? Because I found 3 major ones and all showed various outcomes depending on the standard.
https://www.cnn.com/2015/10/31/politics/bush-gore-2000-election-results-studies/
@InkySchwartz @hazelnot @futurebird
The media reporting on this was carefully vague, but all full recount of all Florida votes would be a narrow victory for Gore.
Gore didn't sue for a full recount, so his legal strategy was not a winning one, so most reporting focussed on Gore strategy and not on the end vote tally.
@InkySchwartz @hazelnot @futurebird
The Supreme Court did specifically decode the election instead of a recount, so this did call Bush's legitimacy into serious question at the time.
Source: am old
@celesteh @InkySchwartz huh, sounds kinda like what happened here in Romania in 2024
Here it was... really weird, a fascist dude that showed up out of "nowhere" ("nowhere" meaning likely propped up by the "Social-Democratic" (right-wing populist) Party, the National Liberal (run of the mill European conservatives/neoliberals) Party, and the intelligence agencies), was gonna go up in the run-offs with a neoliberal candidate from a different party, and the Constitutional Court just invalidated the elections based on unsubstantiated claims of a "foreign cybernetic attack" and banned him from running again
Wich was uhhhhh good on the one hand cause the guy is a fascist conspiracy theorist, but on the one hand, what the actual fuck!?
@futurebird "cover story for why the US attacked Iran"?
As the Ukrainian front is a US proxy war against Russia (and as a side bonus, weakening the EU), the Iranian front is a proxy war against China.
cf the infamous ret. General W. Clark "seven nations in five years" 2007 clip and Brian Berletic regular posts on the continuity of the US agenda against a multipolar world.
@pr_ret_lutz yep, until Russian invaders came and tried to annex them and when that failed started the war in 2014.
But I guess when western-aligned (as opposed to being Russian-aligned) country does not let Russia annex one more of its pieces, that's USA starting an aggressive proxy war against Russia.
Someone is also probably currently telling tales about how the last decades in Gaza are just Russian proxy war against Israel.
@futurebird
Especially when it's not hard.
Trumps speeches are regularly incoherent - both collectively, and in each of the individual statements.
The individual statements often contain lies.
And the lies will often be contradictory.
His speeches don't contain meaning.
Truely he is the LLM president. A man of our age.
It seems like "just say some words" is a baseline politician skill. It's important to be able to deflect. To say whatever *you* want to say instead of answering a question. Lots of them do this making of mouth noises that sound good and mean little. Trump has turned thay dial all the way to one side - the meaning is completely absent. Sound and fury signifying almost exactly nothing.
@futurebird yeah im stunned ppl havent figured out he just blurts out whatever he thinks sounds powerful and macho and in control
bullshit basically
and bc the real world isnt an action movie then he has to pivot and blurt out the next cover, already forgot the first thing he said. they want a ceasefire we crushed em the allies will get the strait we dont need allies we won we are winning they want to ceasefire no boots on the ground yes boots on the ground i stopped nine wars etc etc
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