Do you understand why Trump has lifted the oil sanctions that were punishing Iran, the country he’s bombing, and Russia, the country that’s helping it?

Do you understand why Trump is sending 5,000 Marines to sail through the Strait of Hormuz while complaining that none of our friends and allies will help him reopen it?

Here's the whole explanation.

https://no01.substack.com/p/march-19-21-god-is-a-comedian

March, 19-21: God is a comedian

A stiff drink is recommended

Gold and Geopolitics
@gleick I’d like to understand the reasons why people who are against fascism keep posting on a fascism-supporting platform. If that’s your post, can you put it somewhere else? If it’s not your post, can you ask the author to move somewhere else? Ghost, buttondown, and beehive are good alternatives.
@gregatron5 Take your tiresome harangue elsewhere. Don’t drag me into your crusade.

@gleick My apologies. I can see that the way I phrased it could be offensive.

What's a better way to preface the question “Could you please post content about your anti-fascism crusade on a platform that doesn't openly support fascism”?

RE: https://mas.to/@gleick/116273021474400955

@gregatron5 suggested preface:

"Anti-fascists might like to mute me indefinitely for hasty and repeated interjection in a context such as this."

@gleick @gregatron5 posting as someone who was going to read the article but didn't because of where it's hosted:

Snapping at someone for pointing out people's discomfort with a platform that openly defends hosting of literal Nazis is really disappointing.

Guess I'll just scroll past all of your posts now, because this response has left a bitter taste in my mouth.

@HunterZ @gregatron5 I'm the one who was snapped at. My idea of common courtesy is this: If you don't want to read an article because you don't like the platform that hosts it, don't read the article. Or, if you must, reach out to the article's author. It's neither necessary nor appropriate to scold someone for posting a link to it.

Life is too short, and there’s already enough unpleasantness.

@gleick Very similar to the Joseph Heller novel Catch 22🍸😺
@gleick This is a project to shift Europe (e.g. white nations) back to imperialism. That's why mine sweepers were sent away from the region and Iran's oil refineries were bombed: Create a surge in energy prices for Europe and force them to go abroad and take what they want.

@tasket @gleick Yes, the war on Iran is indeed turning "up the heat" in Europe.

And governments are not even asking to turn down the heating.

Or will Europe become a Russian vazal state?

@bert_hubert

@spdrnl @gleick @bert_hubert Yep, Trumpists want to wrest Russia from China's orbit, and regime change in Europe (putting extractive industries on a pedestal) is one of their goals for achieving that. No more EU (Four Freedoms, Precautionary Principle, Human Rights); it would be a zone dominated by Russia and US.

Look at how US regime is allowing Iran to keep bombing other fuel facilities and ships in the region. Instead of targeting missile launchers they're destroying fuel infra in tandem.

@spdrnl @tasket @gleick @bert_hubert

Not likely. Russia is still only 146 million people no matter what Putin's fantasies are. He's killed a million of them just in Ukraine alone.

@darwinwoodka @tasket @gleick @bert_hubert

True, I meant energy wise, as in a too heavy and unreliable economic dependency.

Also, Russia can incur further additional costs to the EU by its hybrid war fare.

This could add to economic instability with the risk of being drawn down.

An 'involuntary' vazal state.

@gleick Unimaginable, unbelievable, yet true.

"The entire post-1973 petrodollar deal was simple: Gulf sells oil in dollars, America provides the security umbrella. The umbrella is on fire. The refineries are on fire. ... The petrodollar was already the payment..."

And yet, according to this blog, the US is now paying for oil in Yuan to quiet the situation down.

If that is true, the humiliation is complete.

@spdrnl @gleick Complete? No, no, I’m sorry to report we’re scheduled for at least three more years of humiliation. As long as agent #Krasnov and his cronies are designated leaders instead of inmates, their victims will be subject to ever worse depredation.
@gleick My head exploded reading the final paragraph...
@gleick Who could blame them? I think I myself sometimes attempted such daring missions when playing Command & Conqueror.
@gleick
"The logic, insofar as there is any, goes like this: the war has crashed the global oil market so hard that the administration needs the enemy’s oil to keep gasoline prices from eating the midterms. They are unsanctioning the people they’re bombing because the bombing is working too well at the thing they didn’t want it to do." 🎯

@gleick Holy .....
- what I kept repeating while reading..

Quote: "This is a clusterfuck of historic proportions and everyone who's ever held a rank knows it."

Accurate.

@Joy_intl @gleick

Been posting this since Donny got elected and it's applicable to so many situations

@gleick "Friday’s press gaggle. Barely exaggerated: at 12:03 PM, President Trump told reporters he wanted a ceasefire with Iran. At 12:05 he declared victory. At 12:07 he announced he was sending Marines. At 12:08 he said no boots on the ground. At 12:11 he said he did not want a ceasefire. At 12:16 he declared victory again. At 12:17 he asked for a ceasefire. At 12:23 he told NATO they were cowards. At 12:29 he said Iran was begging for a ceasefire. At 12:31 he said everything was perfect. At 12:36 he said $500 oil was a good thing. At 12:37 he demanded Iran open Hormuz. At 12:39 he said Hormuz was never closed. At 12:41 he said the US was not at war with Iran. At 12:42 he declared victory in Iran."
@gleick what I don't understand is this: the stock market part of this (as I understand) is Trump making bets and making a lot of money on them. Who is still willing to take these bets? Why is there still any trust in the stock/derivatives market at all? Take that away and he loses...
Trump pulled mine-sweepers from the Middle East and they’re sitting in Philadelphia as the Iran War rages

The Navy went through with plans to pull the ships from service despite ongoing tensions with Iran

The Independent
@gleick
Unrelated — I was doing some housecleaning recently, and this note from Ralph Leighton fell out of a book. I lived in Glendale in the late 80s and early 90s — attended a memorial service for Feynman at Caltech at which I recall Murray Gell-Mann speaking. I can't recall, but perhaps Ralph Leighton spoke then as well. I must have dropped him a note for some reason. Small world.
@RunRichRun I was there. Thanks for sharing.
@RunRichRun @gleick Goes along with the hospital ships he was going to send to Greenland, the ones in dry dock in Mobile, Alabama.
@gleick it's like going from the kitchen to the dining room and not expected the cat to jump on you in the hall, but with explosives...
@gleick Anytime he causes chaos I immediately know that it's simply a way for him to make money and not solely a child's base, reactive impulses. I'm not always sure how he's making money or the breadth of those he's gifted his national security insider trading, but the impetus is money. Thank you for suffering through the details of this latest, and maybe the bleakest, grift.
@sstrader @gleick Scott, your post reminded me of a George Orwell observation. It applies well to national chaotic events as well as international ones:

@gleick

No01: “To reach Kharg Island, the Marines aboard the USS Tripoli and USS Boxer must first sail through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has mined.[…]”

It’s entirely possible for such an operation to be conducted from the Gulf of Oman. No Strait passage needed.

If only there were Rs to vote down DoD’s $200B supplemental, or a cabinet willing to invoke the 25th.

📷 Saul Loeb/Getty Images

@gleick Trump's aircraft carrier!

@gleick summary:

War crashed oil market, admin needs enemy's oil to avoid midterm pain. Unsanctioning bombed enemy because bombing worked too well. Sanctions lifted to fund war, now needed for oil revenue to prevent economic damage from sanctions. F-35s got hit, Iran lied about missile range.

1/2

@gleick summary:

Trump's contradictory statements on Hormuz. Iran officials keep getting assassinated. Gulf allies pissed. Refineries on fire, petrodollar deal failing. Defense industry out of ammo. Strategic reserves drained. Gold markets diverging. Trump's wild press conference. Universe has a sense of humor.

2/2

@gleick This moment brought to you by Joseph Heller.

@gleick

Just FYI, and to be clear I'm not blaming you for this, some of the comments on that article have some really vile 1930s-style far right stuff full of bigotry and conspiracy theories. The author isn't pushing back on them, in fact he seems sympathetic in some of his replies to them.

@FediThing he also doesn't care that substack supports nazis, so maybe not surprising then

@gleick

The pilot had shrapnel wounds. The aircraft, they said, “will not return to service”, which is the sort of thing you say about a car that hit a bridge abutment at speed, not about a plane that landed.You know what they say, a good landing is one you walk away from, a great landing is one you can use the plane again... Sounds like this was somewhere between a bad and a good landing

@gleick
It's fascinating how easy it is to put the world to the verge of WW3 .

This may the golden chance that Russia and China have been waiting for ...
At least China's arsenals are likely full.

Even should USA be successful in Iran, there'll be nothing left for Ukraine and Taiwan.

@gleick that's art of the deal - everyone keeps going what's the end goal of the Epstein war, it is in the name, this war was just a distraction for pedo in chief to move the collective conscience from his pedo crimes to war crimes... if the cost of that is sanction relief to regimes on the same wavelength, so be it. Even he is smart enough to know no one from US ever get punished for war crimes, specially if giving the orders.
@gleick "because apparently the universe was running low on irony and needed to top up." cannot read through the tears. Incredible writing.

@gleick
..."A White House source told Axios they need “about a month to weaken the Iranians more” before attempting this. One month. Of a war Trump described as ‘winding down’ on Friday - three weeks in, which by his count is basically four days… Both statements were made, as far as anyone can tell, by people who occupy the same government and occasionally share a building.

A former Navy SEAL called the plan “insane”. A retired Vice Admiral called it “a massacre-in-making scenario”. A retired Rear Admiral pointed out that even if they seize the island, Iran simply turns off the pipeline at the other end. Frankly, I think they're being extremely polite. This is a clusterfuck of historic proportions and everyone who's ever held a rank knows it."...

@gleick Strong Churchill Gallipoli vibes. But that turned out well...
@gleick excellently presented, i can see why people are mad