Detmar6d ago
Shoq
The Strait of Hormuz has been Iran’s ace in the hole for decades. Trump’s fluffers didn’t understand that militaries don’t keep tankers afloat, insurance does. With thousands of drones, and only one hit needed for shipping to cease, it’s a cheap asymmetric war for Iran now.
Mar 12 at 11:43pmSidetoolz
Show threadSpaceLifeFormMar 12

@shoq

Ships are sitting ducks. Solar and Wind can evade.

Show threadwyngmanMar 13

@shoq The Trump admin has spent much more time obsessing about regime change in Europe and China (which is now official US policy, btw) than any other foreign issue.

Which region is the most sensitive to oil price shocks, having no substantial oil supply of its own? Europe.

The oil price surge was probably intended to bring down the the liberal EU order, as well as help Russia and put them in the drivers' seat in their partnership with China. Trump can force US domestic producers to keep prices here low in time for the midterms, while he and Putin extort Europe and China.

Hence the US military is more interested in stopping oil flow in the Strait than restoring it.

Show threadcbudMar 13

@tasket @shoq

I think this suggested motivation attributes more thinking and less reptilian motivations behind his actions. He wants to use and demonstrate the power he has at his fingertips. A sense of superiority is enough.

Show threadAaronMar 13

@cbuddenhagen

As for the people manipulating him...

@tasket @shoq

Show threadDuckbilled Plattypus.Mar 13

@tasket

How, do you assert, will Trump be able to keep domestic oil prices low?

The US Strategic Oil Reserve is at 60%, not 100%.

In 2006 Bush tried to depress pump prices during high global cost by rigging the refiners cost of the crack (process to break a molecule of crude into more than its parts) from a steady $18-$22 per bbl to a peculiar $6. But it was not sustainable and made no difference politically.

What, specifically, do you believe Trump can do that others have failed at? I don't see it. Unless he nationalizes oil companies, or mandates fixed prices - neither seem tenable.

@shoq

Show threadDr. SundancerMar 13
@pattykimura @tasket @shoq I'm just guessing, but maybe he could simply ask his friends running the companies to lower their prices temporary? They are already scratching each other`s backs; its not the most farfetched idea.
Show threadDuckbilled Plattypus.Mar 13

@ix9

Not how public corporations work. That's how privately owned/family Saudi or Gulf State businesses typically operate, and lol, they are the targets of the successful Iranian asymmetrical retaliation. Iran has been planning for an attack by the US for 50 years.

If Trump was as powerful as you fantasize his buddies would have already dropped their prices. He's a bully, but he's rapidly losing his edge, his shtick is losing its power and threat, and his "buddies" have watched him double-cross his most loyal and pathetic acolytes who dutifully paid their tributes to the King. The risk of obeying used to be less than the risk of disobeying, things have shifted.

Oil companies are as calculating, greedy, and ruthless as Trump, and the risk calculations have changed even if Trump (and you) don't see it. Neither of them are motivated by care for their customers or citizens, it's all about profit, and this is cash in time for any oil producer/refiner not in a Gulf state even if it screws Trump and consumers. Which is a calculated risk that pays off "bigly" for Iran.

Greed is a double edged axe.

@tasket @shoq

Show threadwyngmanMar 13

@pattykimura No, its not all about profit. The greed in this case is bound up with nazi-fascist ideology; not recognizing that is a big mistake and robs civil society of the ability to anticipate their tactics.

Their next move will be to bring down the centrists in the EU, splintering it, and forming a white race axis from the pieces. Trumpists think that is what it will take to convince Russia to leave China's orbit.

Show threadDuckbilled Plattypus.Mar 13

@tasket

If that were the case within the US, I wouldn't have had to pay $5.50 per gal of #2 oil, vs $3.80 the days before Trump declared War. The price now is higher than $5.50.

What the machinations are in EU, I have no knowledge, so I won't opine. But learn your history, RU doesn't see itself as a client state of China. Racism keeps it from admitting the Great white Russian Empire is now a junior to an Asian nation/China. Persistent racism is why Japan's victory over Russia in the Russo-Japanese War was such a shocker for white nations, and led to the Russian Revolution dress rehearsal in 1905, and the rise of anti-Western rebellions in colonized Asian states.

Show threadDr. SundancerMar 14
@pattykimura @tasket @shoq I hope it's obvious that I make comment as an uninformed observer. I'm glad to hear that you don't believe he's as powerful as I fear; that's very comforting to read.
Show threadHänzi PōtterMar 13
@tasket @shoq this assumes that Trump actually has the authority or the ability to open #StraitOfHormuz when his goals are achieved. This seems at the moment a wrong assumption. Iran knows it can't defeat USA or Israel militarily. They cannot defend their skys but they sure as hell can turn everybody's lives in the region into living hell and for extended period. Iran is already starved and under sacrifice for decades. USA has no more tools or cards to bargain with
Show threadwyngmanMar 13

@hszakher @shoq Who did this at the start of the war..?

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqxd1nv3re2o

The dialogue here is proving far worse than I experienced on forums during the Iraq War. Very muddled thinking. Social media and a tidal wave of automatic entertainment has damaged people's faculties across the board; doesn't matter what side you think you're on.

Why air strikes on Tehran oil facilities are causing black rain

Air strikes have damaged at least four oil facilities since US-Israeli attacks on Iran began last month.

Show threadHänzi PōtterMar 13
@tasket @shoq I think your (not so relevant) link may actually prove my point. That trump admin is NOT in control of OPENING the strait (and the war generally). Israel bombed the energy depos of Iran. Iran is able and willing to keep the strait closed regardless of what trump wishes. Your theory is valid only if trump actually has the ability to close AND OPEN the strait at will, which he's not.
Show threadwyngmanMar 13

@hszakher

That trump admin is NOT in control of OPENING the strait (and the war generally).

Who is backing and supplying the Netanyahu regime unconditionally?

Show threadHänzi PōtterMar 13
@tasket let me rephrase my statement you just quoted. Trump and Israel (by their actions) effectively closed the #StraitOfHormuz. If trump and Israel stopped their actions today, the strait will still be closed. It is closed because Iran closed it with mines and kamikaze boats in order to inflict economic pain on gulf states and those supporting USA and Israel. Iran will not reopen the strait just because trump asked politely. Trump does not have the tools to force open the strait.
Show threadwyngmanMar 13

@hszakher "If trump and Israel stopped their actions today, the strait will still be closed."

And if they hadn't initiated the war, the strait would still be open. ta-da

Show threadHänzi PōtterMar 13
@tasket 👏👏👏
Show threadandycMar 13
@shoq Indeed. Presumably the FBI and CIA were fully aware (like half the population) but were simply ignored.
Show threadPhilMar 13
@shoq read The Zorg, which not only describes the horror and terror of the transatlantic slave trade, it also describes the role of insurance in shipping as far back as the 17th century.
Show threadcardyMar 13
@shoq The war has been going 13 days. The plan was for 6 months or longer. I wouldn't be drawing any conclusions on what is Iran's ace in the hole just yet.
Show threadDuckbilled Plattypus.Mar 13
@shoq Big slow moving ships are sitting ducks. It's why the US Navy knows it's suicide, martyrdom, or capture & parade if it goes in.
Show threadNicole ParsonsMar 13

@shoq

Fossil Fuel Shakedowns & US foreign policy ...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/03/12/russian-oil-sanctions-lifted-iran/

Trump's fossil fuel owners wanted a fast way to boost oil prices before Putin lost his war in Ukraine.

The fossil fuel industry is in an axis alliance against any nation acting on climate.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyzj3g3pygo

https://www.ft.com/content/d213e507-905e-440b-987e-66bfc1acdffe

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/12/us/politics/trump-russia-oil-sanctions.html

How often are we supposed to tolerate market manipulation of oil commodities before a switch to solar & wind becomes mandatory?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/guneyyildiz/2026/03/12/russian-oil-jumped-from-40-to-100-in-twelve-days-the-sanctions-fallout-is-just-starting/

Trump administration allows for Russian oil sales as energy prices soar

The move is likely to be a boon to Russia as the United States tries to stem the economic fallout from its war on Iran as the price of crude has soared.

The Washington Post
Show threadxs4me2Mar 13

@shoq

The ultimate stupidity the Trump regime displays is mind-boggling..

Show threadRenke MeuweseMar 13
@shoq plenty of people in Trump's direct surrounding have one primary strategic objective: dismantle the United States, whether to replace it by their technofeudal network states or just to bring back Jesus. And then there's of course the insider trading on policy no disastrous nobody on Wall Street would predict it.