ShoqMar 12
The Strait of Hormuz has been Iran’s ace in the hole for decades. Trump’s fluffers didn’t understand that militaries don’t keep tankers afloat, insurance does. With thousands of drones, and only one hit needed for shipping to cease, it’s a cheap asymmetric war for Iran now.
Show threadwyngmanMar 13

@shoq The Trump admin has spent much more time obsessing about regime change in Europe and China (which is now official US policy, btw) than any other foreign issue.

Which region is the most sensitive to oil price shocks, having no substantial oil supply of its own? Europe.

The oil price surge was probably intended to bring down the the liberal EU order, as well as help Russia and put them in the drivers' seat in their partnership with China. Trump can force US domestic producers to keep prices here low in time for the midterms, while he and Putin extort Europe and China.

Hence the US military is more interested in stopping oil flow in the Strait than restoring it.

Show threadHänzi PōtterMar 13
@tasket @shoq this assumes that Trump actually has the authority or the ability to open #StraitOfHormuz when his goals are achieved. This seems at the moment a wrong assumption. Iran knows it can't defeat USA or Israel militarily. They cannot defend their skys but they sure as hell can turn everybody's lives in the region into living hell and for extended period. Iran is already starved and under sacrifice for decades. USA has no more tools or cards to bargain with
Show threadwyngmanMar 13

@hszakher @shoq Who did this at the start of the war..?

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqxd1nv3re2o

The dialogue here is proving far worse than I experienced on forums during the Iraq War. Very muddled thinking. Social media and a tidal wave of automatic entertainment has damaged people's faculties across the board; doesn't matter what side you think you're on.

Why air strikes on Tehran oil facilities are causing black rain

Air strikes have damaged at least four oil facilities since US-Israeli attacks on Iran began last month.

Show threadHänzi PōtterMar 13
@tasket @shoq I think your (not so relevant) link may actually prove my point. That trump admin is NOT in control of OPENING the strait (and the war generally). Israel bombed the energy depos of Iran. Iran is able and willing to keep the strait closed regardless of what trump wishes. Your theory is valid only if trump actually has the ability to close AND OPEN the strait at will, which he's not.
Show threadwyngmanMar 13

@hszakher

That trump admin is NOT in control of OPENING the strait (and the war generally).

Who is backing and supplying the Netanyahu regime unconditionally?

Show threadHänzi PōtterMar 13
@tasket let me rephrase my statement you just quoted. Trump and Israel (by their actions) effectively closed the #StraitOfHormuz. If trump and Israel stopped their actions today, the strait will still be closed. It is closed because Iran closed it with mines and kamikaze boats in order to inflict economic pain on gulf states and those supporting USA and Israel. Iran will not reopen the strait just because trump asked politely. Trump does not have the tools to force open the strait.
Show threadwyngman

@hszakher "If trump and Israel stopped their actions today, the strait will still be closed."

And if they hadn't initiated the war, the strait would still be open. ta-da

Mar 13 at 1:35pmWeb
Show threadHänzi PōtterMar 13
@tasket 👏👏👏