The Strait of Hormuz has been Iran’s ace in the hole for decades. Trump’s fluffers didn’t understand that militaries don’t keep tankers afloat, insurance does. With thousands of drones, and only one hit needed for shipping to cease, it’s a cheap asymmetric war for Iran now.

@shoq The Trump admin has spent much more time obsessing about regime change in Europe and China (which is now official US policy, btw) than any other foreign issue.

Which region is the most sensitive to oil price shocks, having no substantial oil supply of its own? Europe.

The oil price surge was probably intended to bring down the the liberal EU order, as well as help Russia and put them in the drivers' seat in their partnership with China. Trump can force US domestic producers to keep prices here low in time for the midterms, while he and Putin extort Europe and China.

Hence the US military is more interested in stopping oil flow in the Strait than restoring it.

@tasket @shoq

I think this suggested motivation attributes more thinking and less reptilian motivations behind his actions. He wants to use and demonstrate the power he has at his fingertips. A sense of superiority is enough.

@cbuddenhagen

As for the people manipulating him...

@tasket @shoq