nixCraft 🐧Mar 5
While everyone busy with AI and war news, China set its lowest growth goal (4.5%–5%) since 1991, due to global and domestic challenges. India, the 4th largest economy, also struggles with high unemployment rates. These are warning signs from manufacturing and consumer driven economy of an upcoming disaster. Meanwhile, US growth relies solely on 7 mega companies with AI craze. It is not just China & India, EU, Japan other ex-USA economies are showing sluggish. (1/n)
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqxddwl93qjo
China sets lowest economic growth target since 1991

It is also the first time the target has been lowered since it was cut to "around 5%" in 2023.

Show threadnixCraft 🐧
The US economy, currently driven by an AI bubble, is keeping its head above water for now, but it is only a matter of time before everything goes south. If you didn’t experience the 2000 or 2008 crises (I hope nobody sees it), I urge you to take precautions, starting by reducing unnecessary spending. Trim it down. If possible, build 6–12 months of savings to prepare for potential job loss. Avoid buying items on credit. Economic crashes are like harsh mistresses, they do not forgive easily. (2/2)
Mar 5 at 1:26pmWeb
Show threadDougMerritt (log😅 = 💧log😄)Mar 5
@nixCraft
Yep. For months now I've been feeling like an actual depression is looming. Presumably the start will be when those 7 mega companies with AI craze crash, and people then start saying "oh yeah, the bubble has popped now, AI is cool and all but it's not what it's hyped to be".
Show thread1337 $#!+ I did thatMar 5
@dougmerritt @nixCraft you must balance the bubble against the end of moore's law. It is not the #AI. It is putting the means of productivity into a factory as that means has crashed on the size of a transistor. It is not the #AI, it is making compute a metered service.
Show threadToni AittoniemiMar 5
@nixCraft Ain’t nothing like starting a forever war that drives up the price of everything in the consumer sector to pop that bubble! 😅
Show threadspikederailedMar 5
@nixCraft I was not an adult during 2000, but I remember it. I managed to make it through 2008. I'm worried about this bubble, but sadly had to buy a car, so I have that note hanging over my head, but that is the only debt.
Show threadWXQ4987 (RSX9983)Mar 5
@nixCraft you know things are going just fantastic when your source of Linux memes is telling you “we’re all soon to be financially screwed”.
Show threadKevin Karhan Mar 5
@WXQ4987 Granted, I'm shure @nixCraft wishes to be.wrong about this...
Show threadFaraiweMar 5

@nixCraft India, who are investing heavily on being the droning-scripted-tech-support for LLM chatbots, is dealing with a critical low employment level and even lower salaries.

They just had the largest workers strike, ever.... anywhere. Modi (India's tRump) is tap dancing, HARD, to hide this, and he is failing... also hard.

The hype and the actual investment being poured into that isn't returning even remotely close to what is hyped.

#LLMs #ai

Show threadFaraiweMar 5

@nixCraft

The FUNNIESTEST (not) thing about THIS bubble is how come every single techbro friendly moron is going "hurrr... it's NOT a 'bubble' if we can *see* it coming, HA HA GOTCHA", as the bubble builds and everyone thinks it's not a bubble because they read what those idiots are saying.... and then they keep pouring money and giving the LLM bullshit both attention, time,platform... and money. Did I mention money?

Buckle in, hold onto to your butts, this is gonna go pop, soon.

#LLM #ai

Show threadAttila KinaliMar 5
@nixCraft
Show threadGaëtan PerraultMar 5

@nixCraft

Since 2022, my family has been operating under the premise that we're not going to make it to 2030 without a 1929-style crash happening in the US. Lead-ins are similar, demands on the system are similar. And 1929 was much worse than 2000 or 2008.

I agree with everything you're saying, but even offer to take it up to another level. Don't just build a financial buffer, build a community one. When stuff gets bad, that's going to be the next layer of defense. We saw how people self-organized in Minneapolis around ICE. When there's the next really Big Crash, we're going to need that scale of community responses everywhere to keep people going. It's a lot easier to do if you already know people doing it.

Show threadScott LoweMar 6
@gatesvp @nixCraft 100% this. Community is essential.