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The US is Collapsing Like the USSR – So What Comes Next

• Stagnation of Innovation: Real innovation in the West is increasingly disincentivised; the entrepreneurial dynamism that once drove growth has given way to rent-seeking and monopolisation​. In a mature system nearing collapse, new ideas and adaptations are stifled by entrenched incumbents. The industrial-era institutions resist change, even as conditions demand fresh solutions​. We see this in technological stagnation: for example, despite the economic superiority of sustainable technologies, legacy interests (fossil fuel companies, conservative bureaucrats) slow their adoption. The result is an innovation drought. Incumbents double-down on the old and familiar in search of certainty amidst escalating uncertainty. This explains policy choices like subsidising coal and oil while defunding clean energy R&D – short-term clinging to obsolete industries that forestalls innovation. Such stagnation is characteristic of the release stage, as the system’s internal complexity and rigidity prevent it from adapting, leading to breakdown.
• Technological Conservatism: Related to innovation stagnation is a broader technological inertia. The West shows reluctance to deploy radical new paradigms (e.g. decentralised energy, open source AI governance frameworks) and instead keeps reinforcing hierarchical 20th-century infrastructures built for increasingly obsolete industries. This halts progress just when bold innovation is most needed​. In the release phase, this manifests as clinging to incumbent technologies and business models even as they become unviable, or shoehorning genuine technological innovation into stagnant old paradigm governance frameworks that restrict their benefits to a few. Incumbents respond to chaos by maintaining prevailing hierarchical structures that are in decline, rather than embracing the new​. For instance, the 2025 Trump administration’s policies aimed at reviving coal mining or protecting Big Oil echo this mindset. Such policies attempt to resurrect or preserve dying industries instead of investing in emerging alternatives, reflecting a fear of change. This conservatism exacerbates collapse: by refusing to evolve, the system becomes more brittle, unable to buffer shocks or leverage new opportunities.