Friday 1-16 #bubblewatch

Mixed trading today. Tech values still buoyed by chipmaker profit predictions … and chipmaker profit predictions still based on assuming the #AI #bubble keeps expanding.

Anyone who thinks the market is always rational has a hole in their head.

> Chip stocks lift S&P 500 in volatile trading ahead of long weekend. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-rise-chipmakers-advance-end-choppy-week-2026-01-16/

Related: Interesting article pointing out the #AI #bubble carries political risks as well.

> ‘Show me the money’ time for AI as political risks loom. If investors start to lose faith in AI, it could dent economic growth and put more pressure on the GOP in the midterms. https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/16/ai-money-political-risk-00733145

Thing is? Even if the bubble doesn't pop, it's unlikely the #genai sector is going to be profitable this year; if ever. Has anyone done a serious cost analysis of AI usage per prompt?

Monday 1-19 #bubblewatch

I wasn't going to do a bubblewatch today because the market is closed for a USA holiday. But that doesn't mean markets are not operating elsewhere and recent #uspol events have shaken things up.

> Dollar at week low as geopolitics revive 'Sell America' trade. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-week-low-geopolitics-revive-sell-america-trade-2026-01-20/

I've usually avoided making predictions on this thread and the few times I tried I either missed the mark entirely or was only partially right.

But I'm gonna try again.

[contd]

So, first two things: The dollar is taking a bath and USA stock futures (to be settled tomorrow morning) are tanking.

This doesn't bode well for the market tomorrow, but could lead to bargain hunting driving prices back up. HOWEVER…

However, USA Treasury bonds have been doing badly lately, with rising yields and not enough takers. And now we have European countries threatening to pull their money out of the USA bond market.

This is bad. This is really bad.

[contd]

Why? Because all European countries together hold more USA Treasury bonds than even China. If they pull out it could devastate the USA bond market and not just for Treasury bonds.

But it gets worse. If bond values tank from this we could see all foreign AND DOMESTIC bond holders trying to get out before values completely flatline. Think bank run, but on the entire country.

(This is bad for my own investments!)

And I'm not done yet…

[contd]

When the market as a whole looks bad money tends to flee to blue-chip Industrial and Energy stocks. Right now the biggest single sector of the market is the #AI #bubble. And major holders of AI stocks include European retirement and sovereign funds. So if the market looks hinky to them they now have two good reasons to sell and sell quickly.

Meaning, even if it's only those stockholders selling, the AI sector tumbles.

So, will the bubble pop this week? I don't know.

[contd]

What I'm saying is, I don't know if the European national and retirement funds are actually going to do those things. Right now the market is indicating there are fears it will happen, but it could also even out tomorrow. Who knows?

But I do feel fairly confident in predicting the AI bubble will pop if European funds start divesting from USA bonds and stocks in a big way. Only if it does? It's now 99% more likely it will take the rest of the economy with it.

Black Tuesday? We'll see.

[fin]

MORE:

Here is a helpful explainer from 2024 on how USA Treasury bonds work and how things can go wrong if bond buyers decide the USA is *not a good investment*.

> How to tell if the US Treasury is having trouble borrowing in the bond market. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-to-tell-if-the-us-treasury-is-having-trouble-borrowing-in-the-bond-market/

What this article doesn't cover in-depth is what happens if that day comes. The answer is simple: the dollar crashes and the USA economy goes off a cliff. Most likely dragging the rest of the world along with it.

Holding off on today's #bubblewatch until the market closes. But, if you want to see how it's going so far?

I'll keep watching.

All that said? It's important to note CNN's 'Fear and Greed Index' is currently neutral. Which is a sign the market could recover some value by end of day.

> https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

Tuesday 1-20 #bubblewatch

Well, in the end today's trading was neither a complete collapse of the market nor a recovery due to bargain hunters. Tech stocks ended down the most, but all market segments were down significantly. I was talking about potential issues with USA bonds above, but today the Japan sovereign bonds were in play. Still, the 'Sell America' talk continues. (Mentioned in the article.)

> Global bond markets shaken by Japan selloff, Greenland worries. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japanese-selloff-greenland-fears-ripple-through-debt-ridden-global-bond-markets-2026-01-20/

It begins…

> Danish pension fund to divest its U.S. Treasuries. https://www.reuters.com/business/danish-pension-fund-divest-its-us-treasuries-2026-01-20/

Still, $100 million is a drop in the bucket. But if there are a hundred such drops? Then we have a storm.

ETA: I should point out I'm not cheerleading this! If the USA bond market collapses it will take a big chunk of my investments with it. This is money I'm counting on to get me into a care home where they change your diaper regularly when I get to where I need that.

Wednesday 1-21 #bubblewatch

It appears the market believes TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) is in play. Yet, as optimistic as those voices are? The market has not yet gained back all the ground it lost recently. Crowing about a percent and a half increase today means little if it was a two and a half percent *decrease* yesterday.

> Stocks stage dramatic rebound after Trump announces Greenland framework. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-pix-2026-01-21/

Meanwhile Europe was still poked with a stick. This isn't over.

Paul Krugman agrees with me, but as usual he says it better than I.

> MAGA Delusions of Economic Leverage. Europe can easily stand up to Trump’s bullying. https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/maga-delusions-of-economic-leverage

> "However, we can say something about the likely effects of his attempt to coerce Europe with tariffs — namely, that it won’t work. Only in Trump’s fantasies does American possess huge economic leverage over Europe. To the extent that we have any leverage over them, it’s matched by the leverage they have over us."

Thursday 1-22 #bubblewatch

In case you needed any more proof the market consists mostly of people who think they are smart, but act like they are stupid? Take a look at how they are celebrating the last two days of geopolitical news by getting excited when the DOW is up a two-thirds of a percentage point, but still down from last week.

> Wall Street finishes up as investors buoyed by tariff relief, upbeat data. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/futures-rise-further-greenland-relief-2026-01-22/

Wisdom of the market my ass.

Friday 1-23 #bubblewatch

I didn't want to post today's bubblewatch until the market closed because I figured yesterday's irrational exuberance wouldn't last for another full day of trading. I was right.

> Dow ends lower after topsy-turvy week, as Intel's outlook weighs on market sentiment. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-dip-intel-plunges-geopolitical-concerns-linger-2026-01-23/

Monday 1-26 #bubblewatch

The stock market is up slightly, in anticipation of both Fed moves and some upcoming big name quarterly reports. (Why the market always assumes profits will be up is beyond me.)

However, other markets are, as they say, 'volatile' as the dollar skids and gold jumps to new heights.

> Dollar under fire again as investors reassess Trump policies, geopolitical risk. https://www.reuters.com/business/dollar-under-fire-again-investors-reassess-trump-policies-geopolitical-risk-2026-01-26/

Wednesday 1-28 #bubblewatch

(Sorry, skipped yesterday.)

The stock market was up a bit, but slipped today, along with the dollar, as the Fed decided to stand pat on interest rates. However, gold jumped again; signalling more money is trying to find a safe haven.

> Gold tops $5,300 for first time on dollar weakness ahead of Fed decision. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/golds-blistering-rally-continues-past-5200-dollar-plunges-4-year-low-2026-01-28/

If you believe in the predictive power of the market the message is clear: Many investors are afraid of a BIG crash right now.

Thursday 1-29 #bubblewatch

Days like today are why I bother with this long-running thread.

> S&P 500, Nasdaq close down as Big Tech's soaring AI budgets trigger flight. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-index-futures-edge-up-markets-digest-big-tech-earnings-2026-01-29/

If you've been following me here, you know I railed about the market's unwarranted optimism ahead of this week's earnings reports. Guess what?

And then there's the larger questions associated with the USA Administration and various geopolitical risks. 'Storm clouds' indeed…

That big drop in tech stock values today? Turns out #Microsoft alone was about two thirds of it.

> Microsoft Stock Tumbles 12.1% In Worst Day For Company In Years. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/microsoft-stock-tumbles-121-in-worst-day-for-company-in-years_n_697bb80ae4b04b6f3b7f3200

And gold is still advancing, along with silver now gold stocks are getting tied up. After all, if you are buying gold as a hedge against hyperinflation, selling it at a profit is meaningless.

NOTE: I do not recommend buying gold. Please don't take that from this.

#news

Paul Krugman on why #gold and #silver values are going crazy right now.

> The Lowdown on Debasement. https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-lowdown-on-debasement

This is essential reading if you are trying to understand money flows at the moment. Especially if you want to understand the dangers to the USA #economy as foreign and institutional investors pull out of the USA bond market and hedge by moving their #money to precious metals.

Friday 1-30 #bubblewatch

Not a good day for the stock or currencies markets and the bond markets wish they were doing that well. For good reason: bad earnings reports, bad economic news, and now an incoming Fed Chair who scares the pants off of anyone looking for stable economic policy.

> US stocks fall, as investors fret over Trump's Fed nominee, earnings, inflation. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-street-futures-fall-trump-set-announce-fed-chair-pick-2026-01-30/

You know what *is* up? Values of companies making the kinds of things you stock up on for emergencies.

Monday 2-02 #bubblewatch

Welcome to February bubblewatchers! It's been weird over the weekend and today.

1. The boom in precious metals sagged; I guess those goldbugs and debasers weren't all that serious about hedging against hyperinflation

2. But the crypto selloff continued, albeit at a slower pace because there's even less buyers

3. The dollar is finally going back up a bit

4. Stock trading was mixed, Asia down

> TRADING DAY Solid data over hard assets. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/global-markets-trading-day-graphic-2026-02-02/

Tuesday 2-03 #bubblewatch

Bubblewatch is late tonight because of Reuters. It's not my fault.

Oh, OK. I forgot to recheck if they finally posted a market recap until now. But they were late first!

Anyway… The entire market, including – because I'm posting so late – Asian stocks, is down. Tech stocks are especially hard hit, nearly a percent and a half.

> Asia shares wobble, oil prices climb and gold makes a comeback. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-02-04/

Also, whoever was selling their gold horde ran out…

Wednesday 2-04 #bubblewatch

I complained about Reuter's being slow with their market recap yesterday. Today's is not only on time, it is also on the front page as the leading article!

> As software stocks slump, investors debate AI's existential threat. https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/global-software-stocks-hit-by-anthropic-wake-up-call-ai-disruption-2026-02-04/

And, yeah, #AI stocks are down. But so is the rest of the market. But the real news is the way market analysts are finally starting to call AI booster promises into question as actual results of AI rollouts come in.

And there's a whole lot more related AI bubble, market, and economic news today. Here's some related Fedi posts I want to tag for this thread:

> https://wandering.shop/@cstross/116014302245484163

> https://mastodon.social/@Thriveth/116012919113270372

> https://toot.kuba-orlik.name/@kuba/116012356491544497

> https://rustedneuron.com/@jackwilliambell/116013952556110722

> https://rustedneuron.com/@jackwilliambell/116014249854398674

Thursday 2-05 #bubblewatch

Yesterday's market woes continue, with tech stocks dropping *another* percent and a half. Or, if you use the market analyst nomenclature, more than 150 'points'.

> Wall Street ends sharply down as #AI worries weigh. https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-nasdaq-futures-subdued-markets-digest-alphabets-ai-spending-plans-2026-02-05/

No, this isn't a 'Bear Market' or even 'Bear Territory'. It isn't even a 'Correction', at least not yet. However, CNN has moved the 'Fear and Greed Index' well into 'Fear'.

> https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

What's happening right now is far from a market crash. In fact, if it were to continue for long enough to actually become a Bear Market? Then the #AI #bubble will have largely deflated without doing significant damage to the economy.

One can hope. Or, tomorrow, we could wake to find investors have lost all confidence. Which itself wouldn't shift the economy drastically, but could have knock-on effects that do.

I'll keep bubblewatching.

Friday 2-06 #bubblewatch

Today the market rallied and gained back value, with industrials hitting a new high as smart money moved. But even #crypto came back.

> Dow closes above 50,000, Nvidia soars as traders focus on AI spending. https://www.reuters.com/business/futures-stabilize-after-tech-rout-amazon-slides-ai-capex-lift-2026-02-06/

Thing is, the market is far from rational and, in fact, is driven almost entirely by vibes and fashions. And those vibes and fashions can change at the drop of a hat.

In this case most #AI stocks were still losing value, but Nvidia surged.

Recap of last week's #AI stock drop, with some analysis. Tomorrow begins another week of #bubblewatch, but the Asian markets open soon and may give us some insight as to how it will go, especially with tech stock futures.

> Investors chase cheaper, smaller companies as risk aversion hits tech sector. https://www.reuters.com/legal/legalindustry/investors-chase-cheaper-smaller-companies-risk-aversion-hits-tech-sector-2026-02-08/

Monday 2-09 #bubblewatch

Last week's tech stock selloff ended with a slight rally on Friday, mostly revolving around NVidia. Today that rally continued – and continued to be 'slight'. AI company values, other than chipmakers, currently stand at 13% below values before the selloff.

> Wall Street advances as tech bounces further off of recent losses. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-muted-markets-await-key-economic-data-2026-02-09/

Trying not to read too much into this, but could it be people investing in shovel makers instead of gold mines?

Tuesday 2-10 #bubblewatch

Today was generally more of yesterday. Except with the extra bad news that Treasury Yields and the dollar are falling.

> Stocks mixed but world index hits record high; Treasury yields fall. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-02-10/

The one bright spot is Industrial stocks, which are doing well. Considering that is where the smart money gets parked when the financial near future is looking grim, this actually isn't good news.

The USA January Payrolls Report is due tomorrow.

Wednesday 2-11 #bubblewatch

The USA January Payrolls Report is in and is characterized as 'strong'. Which, although good news for the economy, is *not* good news for a stock market which rises and falls based on the latest prognostication of the the Prime Rate; indications are for continued higher inflation.

> Wall Street ends muted after strong jobs data nibbles at Fed rate cut bets. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-pause-ahead-january-employment-data-2026-02-11/

Meanwhile the tech stock slump continues. Monday's rally has been eaten away.

Thursday 2-12 #bubblewatch

One week ago, on this long-running thread, I said we didn't have a 'Bear Market' or even a 'Correction'.

Today? Two straight weeks of decline in tech stocks is now only a few percentage points short of a 'Correction'.

> Wall Street sinks as tech rout deepens on #AI angst. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stocks-futures-edge-higher-data-eases-economic-worries-2026-02-12/

The January Consumer Price Index report comes out tomorrow. If it shows continued inflation, the market will reflect expectations of the Fed not dropping rates.

Friday 2-13 #bubblewatch

The January Consumer Price Index report is in and, well, 'mixed' is probably the best description. Cheaper gasoline, higher living costs. Not looking good for a Fed rate cut and *not* something that will juice the market.

> US consumer prices increase marginally, but inflation pressures persist. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-consumer-prices-rise-less-than-expected-january-2026-02-13/

And tech stocks are still under pressure.

> From software to real estate, U.S. sectors under the grip of #AI scare trade. https://www.reuters.com/business/software-real-estate-us-sectors-under-grip-ai-scare-trade-2026-02-13/

Monday 2-16 #bubblewatch

The headline for today's market recap is simply a reworded headline from last Thursday *and the previous Thursday*. (See up thread.) At this point we are in the third straight week of a major downturn in tech stocks, largely driven by weak showings for AI.

> Big tech stocks lose billions as AI spending fears hit valuations. https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/global-markets-marketcap-2026-02-16/

Microsoft alone is down 17% from the start of the year.

Expect to see analysts using the 'C word' ('Correction') soon.

MORE:

Although, is it really a Correction if only one market segment is down? Yet CNN's 'Fear and Greed Index' has swung back to 'Fear':

> https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

More importantly? The USA Treasury Yield Curve has inverted. Again. (It also inverted for a short time early last fall, back when I started bubblewatch.)

> This Signal Triggered Before the Last 4 Recessions. It Just Happened Again. https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/02/14/signal-triggered-before-last-4-recessions-again/

And then there's the 'Hindenburg Omen'.

[contd]

> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_Omen

I've mentioned the Hindenburg Omen before, but it hasn't come up recently. And, frankly, it's incredibly technical, somewhat controversial, and not always an actual predictor.

But guess what market signal set off alarms at the end of January, right at the beginning of this three week slump?

> S&P 500 Slumps as Hindenburg Omen Fuels Investor Anxiety. https://www.tipranks.com/news/sp-500-slumps-after-activation-of-hindenburg-omen-signal

[fin]

Tuesday 2-17 #bubblewatch

Or maybe we don't quite have a full third week of downturn in tech stocks? Do note: despite the headline tech stocks are still underwater from January.

> Equities close with slight gains as tech shares recover. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/us-stock-futures-slip-persistent-ai-disruption-fears-2026-02-17/

Check this space tomorrow and Thursday to see if it turns out it was just bargain hunters buying the dip or a real recovery.

Wednesday 2-18 #bubblewatch

There was a small rally in US stocks today, but no big movements; in fact morning gains were nearly completely gone by the market close.

> US stocks follow European shares higher; geopolitical jitters boost oil, gold. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-02-18/

So we still have no clear indication if the market downturn will continue or not. However, precious metals are hot again; indicating some level of economic fear.