When the market as a whole looks bad money tends to flee to blue-chip Industrial and Energy stocks. Right now the biggest single sector of the market is the #AI #bubble. And major holders of AI stocks include European retirement and sovereign funds. So if the market looks hinky to them they now have two good reasons to sell and sell quickly.
Meaning, even if it's only those stockholders selling, the AI sector tumbles.
So, will the bubble pop this week? I don't know.
[contd]
What I'm saying is, I don't know if the European national and retirement funds are actually going to do those things. Right now the market is indicating there are fears it will happen, but it could also even out tomorrow. Who knows?
But I do feel fairly confident in predicting the AI bubble will pop if European funds start divesting from USA bonds and stocks in a big way. Only if it does? It's now 99% more likely it will take the rest of the economy with it.
Black Tuesday? We'll see.
[fin]
MORE:
Here is a helpful explainer from 2024 on how USA Treasury bonds work and how things can go wrong if bond buyers decide the USA is *not a good investment*.
> How to tell if the US Treasury is having trouble borrowing in the bond market. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-to-tell-if-the-us-treasury-is-having-trouble-borrowing-in-the-bond-market/
What this article doesn't cover in-depth is what happens if that day comes. The answer is simple: the dollar crashes and the USA economy goes off a cliff. Most likely dragging the rest of the world along with it.
Holding off on today's #bubblewatch until the market closes. But, if you want to see how it's going so far?
I'll keep watching.
All that said? It's important to note CNN's 'Fear and Greed Index' is currently neutral. Which is a sign the market could recover some value by end of day.
Tuesday 1-20 #bubblewatch
Well, in the end today's trading was neither a complete collapse of the market nor a recovery due to bargain hunters. Tech stocks ended down the most, but all market segments were down significantly. I was talking about potential issues with USA bonds above, but today the Japan sovereign bonds were in play. Still, the 'Sell America' talk continues. (Mentioned in the article.)
> Global bond markets shaken by Japan selloff, Greenland worries. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japanese-selloff-greenland-fears-ripple-through-debt-ridden-global-bond-markets-2026-01-20/
It begins…
> Danish pension fund to divest its U.S. Treasuries. https://www.reuters.com/business/danish-pension-fund-divest-its-us-treasuries-2026-01-20/
Still, $100 million is a drop in the bucket. But if there are a hundred such drops? Then we have a storm.
ETA: I should point out I'm not cheerleading this! If the USA bond market collapses it will take a big chunk of my investments with it. This is money I'm counting on to get me into a care home where they change your diaper regularly when I get to where I need that.
Wednesday 1-21 #bubblewatch
It appears the market believes TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) is in play. Yet, as optimistic as those voices are? The market has not yet gained back all the ground it lost recently. Crowing about a percent and a half increase today means little if it was a two and a half percent *decrease* yesterday.
> Stocks stage dramatic rebound after Trump announces Greenland framework. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-pix-2026-01-21/
Meanwhile Europe was still poked with a stick. This isn't over.
Paul Krugman agrees with me, but as usual he says it better than I.
> MAGA Delusions of Economic Leverage. Europe can easily stand up to Trump’s bullying. https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/maga-delusions-of-economic-leverage
> "However, we can say something about the likely effects of his attempt to coerce Europe with tariffs — namely, that it won’t work. Only in Trump’s fantasies does American possess huge economic leverage over Europe. To the extent that we have any leverage over them, it’s matched by the leverage they have over us."
Thursday 1-22 #bubblewatch
In case you needed any more proof the market consists mostly of people who think they are smart, but act like they are stupid? Take a look at how they are celebrating the last two days of geopolitical news by getting excited when the DOW is up a two-thirds of a percentage point, but still down from last week.
> Wall Street finishes up as investors buoyed by tariff relief, upbeat data. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/futures-rise-further-greenland-relief-2026-01-22/
Wisdom of the market my ass.
Friday 1-23 #bubblewatch
I didn't want to post today's bubblewatch until the market closed because I figured yesterday's irrational exuberance wouldn't last for another full day of trading. I was right.
> Dow ends lower after topsy-turvy week, as Intel's outlook weighs on market sentiment. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-dip-intel-plunges-geopolitical-concerns-linger-2026-01-23/
Monday 1-26 #bubblewatch
The stock market is up slightly, in anticipation of both Fed moves and some upcoming big name quarterly reports. (Why the market always assumes profits will be up is beyond me.)
However, other markets are, as they say, 'volatile' as the dollar skids and gold jumps to new heights.
> Dollar under fire again as investors reassess Trump policies, geopolitical risk. https://www.reuters.com/business/dollar-under-fire-again-investors-reassess-trump-policies-geopolitical-risk-2026-01-26/
Wednesday 1-28 #bubblewatch
(Sorry, skipped yesterday.)
The stock market was up a bit, but slipped today, along with the dollar, as the Fed decided to stand pat on interest rates. However, gold jumped again; signalling more money is trying to find a safe haven.
> Gold tops $5,300 for first time on dollar weakness ahead of Fed decision. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/golds-blistering-rally-continues-past-5200-dollar-plunges-4-year-low-2026-01-28/
If you believe in the predictive power of the market the message is clear: Many investors are afraid of a BIG crash right now.
Thursday 1-29 #bubblewatch
Days like today are why I bother with this long-running thread.
> S&P 500, Nasdaq close down as Big Tech's soaring AI budgets trigger flight. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-index-futures-edge-up-markets-digest-big-tech-earnings-2026-01-29/
If you've been following me here, you know I railed about the market's unwarranted optimism ahead of this week's earnings reports. Guess what?
And then there's the larger questions associated with the USA Administration and various geopolitical risks. 'Storm clouds' indeed…
That big drop in tech stock values today? Turns out #Microsoft alone was about two thirds of it.
> Microsoft Stock Tumbles 12.1% In Worst Day For Company In Years. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/microsoft-stock-tumbles-121-in-worst-day-for-company-in-years_n_697bb80ae4b04b6f3b7f3200
And gold is still advancing, along with silver now gold stocks are getting tied up. After all, if you are buying gold as a hedge against hyperinflation, selling it at a profit is meaningless.
NOTE: I do not recommend buying gold. Please don't take that from this.
Paul Krugman on why #gold and #silver values are going crazy right now.
> The Lowdown on Debasement. https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-lowdown-on-debasement
This is essential reading if you are trying to understand money flows at the moment. Especially if you want to understand the dangers to the USA #economy as foreign and institutional investors pull out of the USA bond market and hedge by moving their #money to precious metals.
Friday 1-30 #bubblewatch
Not a good day for the stock or currencies markets and the bond markets wish they were doing that well. For good reason: bad earnings reports, bad economic news, and now an incoming Fed Chair who scares the pants off of anyone looking for stable economic policy.
> US stocks fall, as investors fret over Trump's Fed nominee, earnings, inflation. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-street-futures-fall-trump-set-announce-fed-chair-pick-2026-01-30/
You know what *is* up? Values of companies making the kinds of things you stock up on for emergencies.
Monday 2-02 #bubblewatch
Welcome to February bubblewatchers! It's been weird over the weekend and today.
1. The boom in precious metals sagged; I guess those goldbugs and debasers weren't all that serious about hedging against hyperinflation
2. But the crypto selloff continued, albeit at a slower pace because there's even less buyers
3. The dollar is finally going back up a bit
4. Stock trading was mixed, Asia down
> TRADING DAY Solid data over hard assets. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/global-markets-trading-day-graphic-2026-02-02/
Tuesday 2-03 #bubblewatch
Bubblewatch is late tonight because of Reuters. It's not my fault.
Oh, OK. I forgot to recheck if they finally posted a market recap until now. But they were late first!
Anyway… The entire market, including – because I'm posting so late – Asian stocks, is down. Tech stocks are especially hard hit, nearly a percent and a half.
> Asia shares wobble, oil prices climb and gold makes a comeback. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-02-04/
Also, whoever was selling their gold horde ran out…
Wednesday 2-04 #bubblewatch
I complained about Reuter's being slow with their market recap yesterday. Today's is not only on time, it is also on the front page as the leading article!
> As software stocks slump, investors debate AI's existential threat. https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/global-software-stocks-hit-by-anthropic-wake-up-call-ai-disruption-2026-02-04/
And, yeah, #AI stocks are down. But so is the rest of the market. But the real news is the way market analysts are finally starting to call AI booster promises into question as actual results of AI rollouts come in.
And there's a whole lot more related AI bubble, market, and economic news today. Here's some related Fedi posts I want to tag for this thread:
> https://wandering.shop/@cstross/116014302245484163
> https://mastodon.social/@Thriveth/116012919113270372
> https://toot.kuba-orlik.name/@kuba/116012356491544497
> https://rustedneuron.com/@jackwilliambell/116013952556110722
> https://rustedneuron.com/@jackwilliambell/116014249854398674
Thursday 2-05 #bubblewatch
Yesterday's market woes continue, with tech stocks dropping *another* percent and a half. Or, if you use the market analyst nomenclature, more than 150 'points'.
> Wall Street ends sharply down as #AI worries weigh. https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-nasdaq-futures-subdued-markets-digest-alphabets-ai-spending-plans-2026-02-05/
No, this isn't a 'Bear Market' or even 'Bear Territory'. It isn't even a 'Correction', at least not yet. However, CNN has moved the 'Fear and Greed Index' well into 'Fear'.
What's happening right now is far from a market crash. In fact, if it were to continue for long enough to actually become a Bear Market? Then the #AI #bubble will have largely deflated without doing significant damage to the economy.
One can hope. Or, tomorrow, we could wake to find investors have lost all confidence. Which itself wouldn't shift the economy drastically, but could have knock-on effects that do.
I'll keep bubblewatching.
Friday 2-06 #bubblewatch
Today the market rallied and gained back value, with industrials hitting a new high as smart money moved. But even #crypto came back.
> Dow closes above 50,000, Nvidia soars as traders focus on AI spending. https://www.reuters.com/business/futures-stabilize-after-tech-rout-amazon-slides-ai-capex-lift-2026-02-06/
Thing is, the market is far from rational and, in fact, is driven almost entirely by vibes and fashions. And those vibes and fashions can change at the drop of a hat.
In this case most #AI stocks were still losing value, but Nvidia surged.
Recap of last week's #AI stock drop, with some analysis. Tomorrow begins another week of #bubblewatch, but the Asian markets open soon and may give us some insight as to how it will go, especially with tech stock futures.
> Investors chase cheaper, smaller companies as risk aversion hits tech sector. https://www.reuters.com/legal/legalindustry/investors-chase-cheaper-smaller-companies-risk-aversion-hits-tech-sector-2026-02-08/
Monday 2-09 #bubblewatch
Last week's tech stock selloff ended with a slight rally on Friday, mostly revolving around NVidia. Today that rally continued – and continued to be 'slight'. AI company values, other than chipmakers, currently stand at 13% below values before the selloff.
> Wall Street advances as tech bounces further off of recent losses. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-muted-markets-await-key-economic-data-2026-02-09/
Trying not to read too much into this, but could it be people investing in shovel makers instead of gold mines?
Tuesday 2-10 #bubblewatch
Today was generally more of yesterday. Except with the extra bad news that Treasury Yields and the dollar are falling.
> Stocks mixed but world index hits record high; Treasury yields fall. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-02-10/
The one bright spot is Industrial stocks, which are doing well. Considering that is where the smart money gets parked when the financial near future is looking grim, this actually isn't good news.
The USA January Payrolls Report is due tomorrow.
Wednesday 2-11 #bubblewatch
The USA January Payrolls Report is in and is characterized as 'strong'. Which, although good news for the economy, is *not* good news for a stock market which rises and falls based on the latest prognostication of the the Prime Rate; indications are for continued higher inflation.
> Wall Street ends muted after strong jobs data nibbles at Fed rate cut bets. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-pause-ahead-january-employment-data-2026-02-11/
Meanwhile the tech stock slump continues. Monday's rally has been eaten away.
Thursday 2-12 #bubblewatch
One week ago, on this long-running thread, I said we didn't have a 'Bear Market' or even a 'Correction'.
Today? Two straight weeks of decline in tech stocks is now only a few percentage points short of a 'Correction'.
> Wall Street sinks as tech rout deepens on #AI angst. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stocks-futures-edge-higher-data-eases-economic-worries-2026-02-12/
The January Consumer Price Index report comes out tomorrow. If it shows continued inflation, the market will reflect expectations of the Fed not dropping rates.
Friday 2-13 #bubblewatch
The January Consumer Price Index report is in and, well, 'mixed' is probably the best description. Cheaper gasoline, higher living costs. Not looking good for a Fed rate cut and *not* something that will juice the market.
> US consumer prices increase marginally, but inflation pressures persist. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-consumer-prices-rise-less-than-expected-january-2026-02-13/
And tech stocks are still under pressure.
> From software to real estate, U.S. sectors under the grip of #AI scare trade. https://www.reuters.com/business/software-real-estate-us-sectors-under-grip-ai-scare-trade-2026-02-13/
Monday 2-16 #bubblewatch
The headline for today's market recap is simply a reworded headline from last Thursday *and the previous Thursday*. (See up thread.) At this point we are in the third straight week of a major downturn in tech stocks, largely driven by weak showings for AI.
> Big tech stocks lose billions as AI spending fears hit valuations. https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/global-markets-marketcap-2026-02-16/
Microsoft alone is down 17% from the start of the year.
Expect to see analysts using the 'C word' ('Correction') soon.
MORE:
Although, is it really a Correction if only one market segment is down? Yet CNN's 'Fear and Greed Index' has swung back to 'Fear':
> https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
More importantly? The USA Treasury Yield Curve has inverted. Again. (It also inverted for a short time early last fall, back when I started bubblewatch.)
> This Signal Triggered Before the Last 4 Recessions. It Just Happened Again. https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/02/14/signal-triggered-before-last-4-recessions-again/
And then there's the 'Hindenburg Omen'.
[contd]
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_Omen
I've mentioned the Hindenburg Omen before, but it hasn't come up recently. And, frankly, it's incredibly technical, somewhat controversial, and not always an actual predictor.
But guess what market signal set off alarms at the end of January, right at the beginning of this three week slump?
> S&P 500 Slumps as Hindenburg Omen Fuels Investor Anxiety. https://www.tipranks.com/news/sp-500-slumps-after-activation-of-hindenburg-omen-signal
[fin]
Tuesday 2-17 #bubblewatch
Or maybe we don't quite have a full third week of downturn in tech stocks? Do note: despite the headline tech stocks are still underwater from January.
> Equities close with slight gains as tech shares recover. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/us-stock-futures-slip-persistent-ai-disruption-fears-2026-02-17/
Check this space tomorrow and Thursday to see if it turns out it was just bargain hunters buying the dip or a real recovery.
Wednesday 2-18 #bubblewatch
There was a small rally in US stocks today, but no big movements; in fact morning gains were nearly completely gone by the market close.
> US stocks follow European shares higher; geopolitical jitters boost oil, gold. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-02-18/
So we still have no clear indication if the market downturn will continue or not. However, precious metals are hot again; indicating some level of economic fear.
Thursday 2-19 #bubblewatch
Two days ago, up-thread, I said:
> "Check this space tomorrow and Thursday to see if it turns out it was just bargain hunters buying the dip or a real recovery."
Guess what?
> Wall Street dips as Nvidia slides and private equity stocks sink. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-slip-focus-turns-ai-worries-walmart-earnings-2026-02-19/
It's 'dip' and the downturn continues for a third week in a row. And, yes, it's pretty much all tech stocks taking a hit. CNN's Fear and Greed Index remains solidly on 'Fear'.
Monday 2-23 #bubblewatch
Sorry, no bubblewatch last Friday because I was out of town running errands and visiting family. Which, as it turns out, is just as well because Friday's Supreme Court ruling smacking down the Administration's unlawful tariffs resulted in a very short-lived recovery.
Today that recovery is gone and more and the market downturn extends into it's fourth week.
> Wall Street ends sharply lower amid AI displacement fears and revived tariff angst. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-dip-tariff-doubts-hit-risk-appetite-2026-02-23/
In fact? Today the market took an absolute BATH. All major indexes down a percent or more. Tech and Financial stocks down nearly 5% on aggregate from Friday. Precious metals are again surging.
And the market's overall performance for the last month isn't any better; see screenshot.
We probably are not officially in 'Correction' territory, but it's certainly true market sentiment is no longer leaning towards AI and the banks funding their data center buildouts.
This is an interesting development.
> Goldman Sachs launches SPXXAI S&P 500 index excluding AI-related stocks. Goldman Sachs has launched SPXXAI, an S&P 500 index that excludes AI-related stocks to let investors avoid AI exposure amid the current hype. https://www.prismnews.com/news/goldman-sachs-launches-spxxai-sp-500-index-excluding-ai-related-stocks
Tuesday 2-24 #bubblewatch
It's a good thing I usually avoid trying to prognosticate in this thread, because I would have said yesterday that today would be more of the same slow deflation of the #AI #bubble. But the market insists on being irrational…
> Wall St bounces back on renewed tech vigor, easing AI concerns. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-steady-after-mondays-battering-tariffs-ai-concerns-dominate-2026-02-24/
Still, there remain indications some segments of the market are not entirely stupid. See the Goldman Sachs new SPXXAI index mentioned up-thread.
Wednesday 2-25 #bubblewatch
Unless NVidia's earnings report tomorrow results in a complete market meltdown, I think we can say the three-week downturn in February did not extend into a fourth week. Between renewed optimism and bargain hunters 'buying the dip', it looks like AI/tech valuations are recovering.
> Wall Street extends tech-powered rally ahead of Nvidia earnings. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-inch-up-ahead-nvidia-earnings-ai-jitters-ease-2026-02-25/
Back when I started bubblewatch I fully expected to see the #AI #bubble pop by now…
Related: There are reports today saying Monday's big dip in the market was triggered by what is essentially a #ScienceFiction story!
It's styled as a 'A Thought Exercise in Financial History, from the Future' and consists of a retrospective look at a market crash *caused by AI*.
> THE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISIS. https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic
The scenario is based on the #AI #bubble continuing to expand and AI actually working as described – not on the bubble popping or AI disappointment.
Weirdly, this could also explain the market recovery on Tuesday and Wednesday! After all, if AI really does become that successful there's plenty of money to be made on AI bets between now and the crash in the story. So the kind of investor (which is most of them) who only really cares about short term results may be doubling down.
Paul Krugman has his own opinions on all this, of course.
> When Extraterrestrials Attacked the Stock Market. https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/when-extraterrestrials-attacked-the
Thursday 2-26 #bubblewatch
I said this up-thread yesterday:
> "Unless NVidia's earnings report tomorrow results in a complete market meltdown, I think we can say the three-week downturn in February did not extend into a fourth week."
And?
> Wall St slides as tech rally stalls, AI enthusiasm wanes after Nvidia results. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/us-stock-futures-waver-nvidias-blockbuster-results-draw-muted-response-2026-02-26/
So it looks like the previous two days were bargain hunters buying the dip and the tech stock slide continues into a fourth week.
Friday 2-27 #bubblewatch
Since the current market downturn started on a Thursday, today's market performance means we are entering the fifth straight week of overall decline in Tech and Fin stocks.
The NASDAQ is down 5% for the month. The S&P is down nearly 2%.
> Wall St on course for monthly declines on AI worries, renewed tariff angst, geopolitical strife. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-falter-ai-jitters-nasdaq-braces-steep-monthly-fall-2026-02-27/
So, still not enough to evoke the 'C' word. ('Correction'.) But expect analysts to start using it anyway…
Monday 3-02 #bubblewatch
FWIW? I really didn't think I'd still be doing this thread in March. I expected the #AI bubble to pop in January or February. But here we are…
And the market today is *weird*. The Iran war is dampening enthusiasm for *every market segment except AI*!
> Wall Street ends narrowly mixed, trading volatile after air strikes on Iran. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-street-futures-slide-middle-east-conflict-escalates-2026-03-02/
I have no idea what's going on here. Oil and precious metals futures are off the charts, as expected. But AI stocks?
One analyst claims this is how the market responds to uncertainty.
> "Market participants think this is all just temporary and that the problems in the oil patch will disappear," said Bill Smead … investors were reverting to familiar, high-performing stocks like Nvidia, the Magnificent Seven technology stocks and defense sectors. "When people get scared, they go back to what is comfortable."
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Tuesday 3-03 #bubblewatch
Yesterday I said, regarding how the market responded somewhat positively to the Iran attacks:
> "I have no idea what's going on here."
Today? It's gone the other way and I still have no idea what's going on here.
> Wall Street indexes end lower as Middle East conflict fans inflation fears. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-fall-middle-east-conflict-stokes-inflation-worries-2026-03-03/
FWIW today's drop in Tech and Fin stock values is enough for me to claim the four-week downturn is continuing. Yesterday was a bump, not a stopping point.
Of course you could equally say Tech and Fin dropping is part of the whole market (aside from oil and precious metals) going sideways because war.
> “While not much has changed fundamentally since yesterday, investors are growing anxious about the duration of the war and its impact on energy prices," said Joseph Tanious…
But I think why the market moves away from high-risk investments isn't the point: When a bubble pops it doesn't matter if it was a cactus spine or a needle that pierced it.
Wednesday 3-04 #bubblewatch
At this point I'm wondering if I should just suspend bubblewatch for a week or so. I'm starting to get queasy from the rollercoaster…
> US stocks close up on Iran diplomacy hopes; tech leads rebound. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-street-futures-slip-middle-east-conflict-oil-driven-inflation-concerns-2026-03-04/
And, I've said this before, but anyone who believes in the 'Wisdom of the Market' is an idiot. Because the rational move right now is to take your money someplace safe and wait to see how things shake out.
Not buying a ticket for another ride…
Thursday 3-05 #bubblewatch
And the rollercoaster goes down again.
> Wall Street extend losses as investors weigh Middle East war risks. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-slip-investors-weigh-middle-east-war-fallout-2026-03-05/
Since today closes out the 4th week of the ongoing downturn, here are the value changes over the last week and month for USA indexes:
IDX Week Month
Dow -3.69% -2.52%
NASDAQ -1.35% +0.05%
S&P -1.78% -0.24%
FTSE -3.99% +1.02%
Friday 3-06 #bubblewatch
War, oil prices spiking, a bad jobs report, Anthropic's fight with the USA Administration, several studies showing LLMs not returning on business investment, and an already sagging stock market.
Will the #AI #bubble finally pop soon?
> Dow and S&P touch 3-month low as Middle East, weak jobs report weigh. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-slip-middle-east-conflict-rages-jobs-data-focus-2026-03-06/
Who knows? I certainly don't, because I would have said 'January or February' if you'd asked me in September.
Saturday update:
Let's talk about 'force majeure'.
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Force_majeure
It's a clause in contracts which, "… essentially frees both parties from liability or obligation when an extraordinary event or circumstance beyond the control of the parties, such as a war … prevents one or both parties from fulfilling their obligations under the contract."
As of this morning nations and corporations across the Middle East have declared 'force majeure' for oil and mineral contracts.
[contd]
This is the first step in shutting down oil production and mines. We may see it for other than extractive industries as well, so long as they can claim impact from the Iran crisis.
In some cases this may mean entire contracts are null and void and, in the future, new contracts must be negotiated. But even if such is *not* the case, once shut down the oil rigs and mines will not be able to come back online immediately when the crisis has passed.
This is very bad for the stock market.
[contd]
The ripple effects of these mass force majeure cancellations means other contract cancellations around the world as the raw materials become unavailable at a reasonable price. Even in cases where manufacturing does not stop, prices will go up and profits will go down.
Meanwhile stock market valuations are based on a number of factors, most of which are not 'current' so much as 'projected'. But force majeure cancellations and the ripple effect throws those projections out the window.
[contd]
This long-running thread (since last September) is intended to track tech stocks, specifically those participating in the #AI #bubble, and watch for a possible collapse in values. But those stocks do not exist in a vacuum: they are part of the larger market and are affected by moves in the larger market.
And right now? The larger market, especially industrial and finance stocks, is poised to go boom. This doesn't mean it will, but the possibility exists.
And even if it doesn't?
[contd]
Even if it doesn't crash, unless something changes soon there are likely to be effects on the market ranging from a 'Correction' to a 'Bear Market'.
And there's a good chance the coming global hiccup in the market is the final straw required for people to start pulling their money out of the AI bubble.
Meaning we might be in for a more general market crash and associated global economic impacts, but even if not? The AI bubble is that much more likely to pop.
Because of war…
[fin]
Monday 3-09 #bubblewatch
So, one serving of TACO and the market rallies.
> Wall St ends higher as hopes of Iran war resolution offset inflation fears. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-slump-iran-war-drags-oil-near-120-stokes-inflation-worries-2026-03-09/
This thread is about the #AI #bubble and economics, not politics. So I'll skip editorializing and instead complain about the idiots running market values up and down based on their feelings and the promises of a known serial liar.
Also? It's not over. I fully expect more rollercoaster action over the next week…
Tuesday 3-10 #bubblewatch
More of yesterday. I'm not going to bother commenting.
> Wall Street gains as oil slides, markets monitor Middle Eastern developments. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-rise-hopes-early-end-middle-east-conflict-2026-03-10/
Tech shares led U.S. stocks modestly higher on Tuesday as hopes for an earlier-than-expected end to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran persisted against a backdrop of renewed military threats and ongoing worries of economic stagflation.
Update for 3-10:
After I posted today's #bubblewatch the market went kerblewie. (kerblooie?)
> Wall St closes mixed on ramped-up Middle East tensions. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-rise-hopes-early-end-middle-east-conflict-2026-03-10/
NOTE: The spellchecker is proposing 'bloodsucker' as the proper spelling for 'kerblooie'. I'm not sure what to make of that…
Tech shares led U.S. stocks modestly higher on Tuesday as hopes for an earlier-than-expected end to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran persisted against a backdrop of renewed military threats and ongoing worries of economic stagflation.
Wednesday 3-11 #bubblewatch
More rollercoaster. The USA Administration lies about the Iran war, stocks go up; oil goes down. The lies are exposed, stocks go down; oil goes up. It must be stomach churning for the traders on that ride – but I want to know why they buy the lies in the first place.
> S&P 500, Dow end lower as escalating Iran war sours risk appetite. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-rise-hopes-early-end-middle-east-conflict-2026-03-10/
Note that this is actually from early morning YESTERDAY, simply updated for today's market close.
Tech shares led U.S. stocks modestly higher on Tuesday as hopes for an earlier-than-expected end to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran persisted against a backdrop of renewed military threats and ongoing worries of economic stagflation.
#capitalism died in 2008
Bailed out by 14 trillion dollars of PEOPLES MONEY.
Market economies have since been a kabuki theatre for the #billionaires
Jack William Bell
gkrnours
Wulfy—Speaker to the machines
David Scott Moyer