#bubblewatch update:
Michael Burry is comparing rising computer hardware demand in 2000 to the same today. But he's quite deliberately leaving something unsaid…
> https://substack.com/@michaeljburry/note/c-264498926
The unsaid part? The 2000 demand evaporated within months as the economy #crashed from the dotcom collapse…
#bubblewatch update:
Haven't updated bubblewatch in a while because the stock market is still stupid from war and oil shocks. But Gold and Geopolitics has an interesting post about how NVidia's earnings reports are *great*, but their stock values aren't quite reflecting the great.
> Last call. https://no01.substack.com/p/last-call
> "… it’s not a stock market, is it, it’s two factories in a trench coat pretending to be an economy, and not one person looked under the coat."
#bubblewatch update:
Some #AI #bubble weekend reading for you.
> Is the AI bubble about to burst, or is it recalibrating? Massive investment is flowing into AI, but rising costs and inconsistent returns are testing whether the boom is sustainable and can deliver long-term business value. https://www.techtarget.com/searchenterpriseai/feature/Is-the-AI-bubble-about-to-burst-or-is-it-recalibrating
> A famed permabear says a pattern forming in markets shows how the stock bubble could ultimately burst. https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-bubble-burst-pattern-outlook-john-hussman-government-debt-2026-4
#bubblewatch update:
Churn from the Iran war and energy markets aside, the #AI #bubble is still there and the question of eventual profitability has not gone away.
> Nasdaq, S&P 500 end lower on renewed AI growth worries ahead of big tech earnings. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-index-futures-fall-middle-east-stalemate-keeps-oil-risks-focus-2026-04-28/
This week it's the big players on deck:
> First-quarter earnings season shifts into overdrive this week, with five of the companies in the Magnificent Seven group of AI-related megacap firms expected to post results.
#bubblewatch update:
One of the early #AI VCs says it's nearly time to cash out.
> The AI boom won't last, a top VC warns, as he urges startups to cash out. https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-startup-founders-warning-elad-gilsell-while-boom-lasts-2026-4
> "In the AI era, most companies, including those that are ramping revenue today, will see the market, competition, and adoption, turn on them."
> For founders, that creates a narrow window. Selling or merging while valuations remain high could maximize returns before conditions shift.
#bubblewatch update:
The market is still flailing wildly from the Iran war, but at least we are starting to get a little more high-level attention to the #AI #bubble.
> Warren draws ‘parallels’ between AI ‘bubble’ and financial crisis. https://thehill.com/business/5846721-warren-ai-debt-risk-crash/
> “The parallels to the 2008 financial crisis are striking: the reckless behavior of a few billionaires and Big Tech CEOs has turned a promising technology into a structural risk to our financial system…”
Because of these weird market dynamics and because the goal of #bubblewatch is to see if I can capture the moment the #AI #bubble is punctured, I see no value in wasting my time talking about an irrational market driven by non-AI forces.
Still, couldn't an irrational market puncture the bubble as a side effect? Certainly! And I'll be looking for such market moves and will update this thread if I the see signs, along with any other related AI news.
But the daily recap is on hold.
[fin]
Tuesday 4-14 #bubblewatch *suspended*
After much consideration – and today's publication of the following article – I am suspending daily bubblewatch market recaps.
> War is over for Wall Street, while oil drags down bonds and gold. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/war-is-over-wall-street-while-oil-drags-down-bonds-gold-2026-04-14/
I mean, to begin with? The war is *not over*. This is just more of the market going by vibes and not rational thinking. Moreover, this was true since the war started and will likely continue to be true for the foreseeable future.
[contd]
Monday 4-13 #bubblewatch
Stocks mixed again today, oil prices up. The triumph of hope and manipulation over cold reality continues.
> Wall Street indexes gain as investors hold out hope for US-Iran resolution. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/wall-street-futures-drop-after-us-iran-peace-talks-fail-2026-04-13/
Again I feel like I should suspend bubblewatch until the market starts acting with a minimal degree of rationality. None of the market moves for the last two plus weeks have made sense or been meaningful.
Friday 4-10 #bubblewatch
In February and March we had a six-week long downturn which nearly brought the market into 'Correction' territory. Then the Iran war upended the table and the market has been scrambling back and forth as the Whitehouse lies and reality disproves them. Today is more of the same:
> Wall St mixed, set for weekly gains as investors watch Middle East negotiations. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-subdued-ahead-inflation-data-mideast-focus-2026-04-10/
Maybe we should just lean back and enjoy the rollercoaster ride?
Jack William Bell
