A #MEGATHREAD : my threads about #Defence of #Finland & #NATO 's Northern/Eastern Flank. Bits of #History, #SecurityPolicy & #Strategy too - and archived Twitter threads from my archival account (@[email protected]), so you don't have to go to the Bad Place. In somewhat random order.
2022-02-22: Where I tried to explain - 2 days before the Kremlins launched their onslaught against #Ukraine - why someone who's called #communist by far right goons thinks progressives ought to stand with Ukraine, and even supports #NATO . bsky.app/profile/jmko...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:yxj5dhr6fys4ots3wifc3t6n/post/3lcb5jbueho2q
2022-03-02: Early on, I became concerned about the similarities between the 1939 #WinterWar and the Kremlin's full scale invasion of #Ukraine. Sad to say, we didn't learn enough from history. bsky.app/profile/jmko...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:yxj5dhr6fys4ots3wifc3t6n/post/3lcazbqvj2j23
2022-03-08: How did it feel to live next door to Russia, and being a Finnish reservist. bsky.app/profile/jmko...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:yxj5dhr6fys4ots3wifc3t6n/post/3lcawha24ep2h
2022-03-17: An explainer: How the Finnish Defence Forces, or in fact Finland, would fight if invaded. bsky.app/profile/jmko...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:yxj5dhr6fys4ots3wifc3t6n/post/3lcarvzdp5y2h
2022-04-19: An illustrative example of Finnish #ColdWar political maneuvering, whose #1 goal was to avoid Soviet occupation or Soviet-sponsored Communist takeover. And #Finlandization. President Koivisto was much sneakier operator than his public image suggested. bsky.app/profile/jmko...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:yxj5dhr6fys4ots3wifc3t6n/post/3lcafqqpil32b
2022-05-03: Why I thought NATO membership would've eventually become inevitable for Finland, even when I was against joining any time soon. bsky.app/profile/jmko...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:yxj5dhr6fys4ots3wifc3t6n/post/3lca7kfazhv2w
2022-05-09: My translation of comments by one early Finnish volunteer to Ukraine, and some observations gathered from here and there. bsky.app/profile/jmko...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:yxj5dhr6fys4ots3wifc3t6n/post/3lca4zbzgps2b
2022-09-12: Translated to English my reasoning: why I turned from a #NATO skeptic to a supporter, and why Finland needed NATO. TL;DR: for deterrent, to *prevent* war. Because only very strong signals seem to penetrate the circle of yes-men surrounding the Kremlin. bsky.app/profile/jmko...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:yxj5dhr6fys4ots3wifc3t6n/post/3lbvv4il2bi2j
2022-09-26: I didn't believe Putin would use #nuclear weapons, despite his lackeys making bloodcurdling threats every day that ended in -y. Still don't believe they would... at least if the opponent also has nukes. bsky.app/profile/jmko...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:yxj5dhr6fys4ots3wifc3t6n/post/3lbtjgypgfh2x
2022-09-27: More on why #nuclear weapons aren't war-winning weapons, and on bombing civilians and Douhetism more generally. bsky.app/profile/jmko...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:yxj5dhr6fys4ots3wifc3t6n/post/3lbv2dkghfa2q
2022-10-17: How I Stopped Worrying and Learned to Live With The Bomb. Or some evidence that convinced me that #nuclear escalation is far less likely than many seem to believe. bsky.app/profile/jmko...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:yxj5dhr6fys4ots3wifc3t6n/post/3lbry73juii26
2023-01-26: Why I've believed since 2022 that Western democracies should've started serious preparations for direct military intervention in #Ukraine ASAP - and still believe that. A case study on how to entice the Kremlin to negotiate. bsky.app/profile/jmko...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:yxj5dhr6fys4ots3wifc3t6n/post/3lbostlbhpq2f
2023-02-06: Another case study from #WW2. Why #solidarity matters, and why democrats worldwide ought to defend democracies worldwide. #democracy bsky.app/profile/jmko...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:yxj5dhr6fys4ots3wifc3t6n/post/3lbodudy5rm2b
2025-02-21: In response to USA demonstrating conclusively that it cannot be relied upon, and rising tide of isolationist far right & other parties in European Great Powers, my still-standing recommendation to #NB8 is to develop independent deterrent capabilities. bsky.app/profile/jmko...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:l5qgtdxd462q6cz5hbt25edk/post/3lionlvli4226
2025-06-16: A thread on early #ColdWar Finnish intelligence. Yes, it was wild. bsky.app/profile/jmko...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:l5qgtdxd462q6cz5hbt25edk/post/3lrpjdf52s222
2025-07-31: Some notes on operation Stella Polaris, the 1944 transfer of Finnish intelligence (especially #SIGINT) archives, material, and personnel to Sweden. bsky.app/profile/jmko...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:l5qgtdxd462q6cz5hbt25edk/post/3lvakxr4wwc24
2025-08-12: A thread on the capabilities of Finnish #WW2 #SIGINT. They were instrumental in stopping the Soviet assault of 1944, and saving Finland. bsky.app/profile/jmko...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:l5qgtdxd462q6cz5hbt25edk/post/3lw6mgzo5qs2u
2025-10-11: And one of the wilder plot twists in the wild, wild history of Finnish intelligence. A retired agent wins big in lottery, uses money to fund a private counterintelligence operation. bsky.app/profile/jmko...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:l5qgtdxd462q6cz5hbt25edk/post/3m2vzpvb7t22o
2025-11-19: Finnish military intelligence knew in early 1942 that Nazi Germany was going to lose the war. Unfortunately, getting out of the war was problematic. bsky.app/profile/jmko...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:l5qgtdxd462q6cz5hbt25edk/post/3m5xwke7hjs2r
2025-08-06: The basic problem of defending Finland, illustrated on a map. bsky.app/profile/jmko...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:l5qgtdxd462q6cz5hbt25edk/post/3lvqfneh64c2j
2025-08-22: A thread on Finnish Defence Forces' capabilities during the #ColdWar. (Not great.) bsky.app/profile/jmko...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:l5qgtdxd462q6cz5hbt25edk/post/3lwy25cclzk26
2025-08-22: Times change, but the geography doesn't. Russian operational plans regarding Finland are likely quite similar-ish to what they've been since 1809. bsky.app/profile/jmko...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:l5qgtdxd462q6cz5hbt25edk/post/3lwy5w6sews25
2025-11-03: A thread illustrating #Finlandization with an example from the history of computer #gaming in the 1980s. bsky.app/profile/jmko...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:l5qgtdxd462q6cz5hbt25edk/post/3m4ptlmfh3k2b
2025-12-01: Read a great book about the "Finnish Question" in Sweden's foreign policy between 1809-2009; thread mentions how Sweden helped Finland during the Cold War, especially by threatening to join NATO if USSR got too handsy with Finland. bsky.app/profile/jmko...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:l5qgtdxd462q6cz5hbt25edk/post/3m6w22afrks2z
2025-12-02: a thread about the FDF Soldier’s Guides, a book that is issued to every conscript and is also available in English. Contains a good short overview of Finnish security policy and, of course, the basic soldiering skills every conscript ought to master. bsky.app/profile/jmko...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:l5qgtdxd462q6cz5hbt25edk/post/3m6yk232k5k2l
2025-12-02: How the laws of war and rules of armed conflict are taught to Finnish conscripts. bsky.app/profile/jmko...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:l5qgtdxd462q6cz5hbt25edk/post/3m6z3m4kglk2l
2025-12-03: A thread on the Finnish #Defence Forces training system: how it mass manufactures conscripts into combat-ready wartime units. bsky.app/profile/jmko...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:l5qgtdxd462q6cz5hbt25edk/post/3m73epugxxs2j
2025-12-12: A great open access paper about deterrence - and the fundamental differences between conventional deterrence (or non-nuclear WMDs, although they aren't explicitly mentioned) and nuclear deterrence. bsky.app/profile/jmko...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:l5qgtdxd462q6cz5hbt25edk/post/3m7sdgpclhs24
2025-12-22: A thread about Swedish clandestine military cooperation with NATO and USA during the early to mid #ColdWar , which was very extensive and without doubt influenced the Swedish decision to stop its advanced #nuclear weapons program. bsky.app/profile/jmko...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:l5qgtdxd462q6cz5hbt25edk/post/3malaahouj22x
2025-12-22: The #Soviet war plan for Northern #Scandinavia - Finland, Sweden, Norway - in case of war with #NATO during late #ColdWar. bsky.app/profile/jmko...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:l5qgtdxd462q6cz5hbt25edk/post/3maljx5gv2c2o
2025-12-23: Would the current Finnish government abandon #Ukraine to win the 2027 elections? One hopes it won't, but there are reasons to fear it could. bsky.app/profile/jmko...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:l5qgtdxd462q6cz5hbt25edk/post/3mao5lfju4v2z