Licho

So apparently the #KesslerSyndrome has already started. The amount of avoidance maneuvers grew 3x over the last 6 months, and the amount of junk in the orbit went up by <s>40%<\s>63% <a href=https://spectrum.ieee.org/kessler-syndrome-space-debris> [1]<\a> over the last 5 years.

What now? It's hard to internalize that it's already here. It will be a quick ride from now. It goes exponential. Hug your GPS, satelite tv, the weather reports, the space photos. It's the end of the space age. We will be telling our grand children how cool it was.

And maybe, if they are lucky, the moon will herd the debris into an orbital ring. It will be magnificent.

What should we be doing to prepare for this? What are your thoughts?

#space #nasa #satelite #sst #collisionavoidance #esa #scifi

Kessler Syndrome Space Debris Threatens Satellites

The Kessler syndrome is turning space into a hazardous zone. Learn about the innovative tech and international efforts to manage this growing problem.

IEEE Spectrum
Oct 12, 2025 at 12:40pmWeb
Show threadWelkinOct 12, 2025
@licho In LEO #KesslerSyndrome debris will last only for a few years. #SpaceX has to make money with #StarLink. There are some sectors that require #Starlink, like shipping, airlines and some isolated communities. Maybe in time of natural disaster it will be of temporary use. I would love to know the ROE on constant replenishment that #startLink will be require. Put simply economics will doom this. The market size is not big enough.
Show threadJPOct 13, 2025

@welkin7 “don’t worry it’ll only temporarily fuck up literally multiple sectors and all astro science for a little while” what the fuck

your assertion about some sectors *requiring* starlink et al is so reaching I found myself hoping you did warmups before that stretch

what an extremely strange reply, good god

Show threadWelkinOct 12, 2025
@licho #Spaceindustrialization, #SpaceMining and #SpaceColonization are worthy goals. Whether #StarLink will help in it, is an open question. The same can be said too for competitors of #StarLink, like #ProjectKuiper or #OneWeb and others.
#space, #colonization, #spacex.
Show threadꙮ 𝄃𝄁𝄂𝄀𝄀𝄁𝄃🇫🇯🇱🇨🇱🇧Oct 12, 2025
@licho fuck #musk
Show threadGraham WattOct 12, 2025

@licho Well, back to paper maps and a compass. Loss of GPS will be not felt in cities as much as they will just triangulate with WiFi and Cell Towers instead.

Maybe my dream job of remotely piloting an orbital garbage collector comes true? Need something that can pull the junk from LEO to GeoSync or beyond, perhaps to a Lagrange Point. L4 or L5, Sargasso sea of space junk.

Show threadLichoOct 12, 2025
@guamwatt does this exist right now? I wonder if I can try it out. Organic maps shrugs and says nope. I'm super curious if there are implementations available
Show threadCarbon CarrotOct 12, 2025
@licho @guamwatt BeaconDB and Positon have approximate SSID/Position data - I think GMS has sth like that, and MicroG has an implementation with Ichnea APIs
Show threadGraham WattOct 12, 2025
@licho google location data has used triangulation of your phones sensing wifi APs and their MAC. I know this because someone moved equipment from Quantico to JBPHH and my phone, using wifi as addtional input for location tracking, jumped my apparent location to VA from HI for a few minutes.
Show threadMastodon MigrationOct 13, 2025

@licho

Exponential growth is a bitch. You hardly notice it until it explodes in your face.

Show threadStuck HereOct 13, 2025

@licho

I always figured it would be a slow, unacknowledged development by the public.

Do you have an article on the subject?

Show threadLichoOct 13, 2025
@MyWoolyMastadon the figure of 3x the maneuvers comes from here
https://spectrum.ieee.org/kessler-syndrome-space-debris
Edit: oh I misremembered from the article and the mass of space junk increased actually by 63% over the last 5 years, not by 40%. Sorry
Kessler Syndrome Space Debris Threatens Satellites

The Kessler syndrome is turning space into a hazardous zone. Learn about the innovative tech and international efforts to manage this growing problem.

IEEE Spectrum
Show threadMastodon MigrationOct 13, 2025

@licho

The way to think about #KesslerSyndrome is a room full of mousetraps and ping pong balls. We are so fucked.

Show threadThird spruce tree on the leftOct 13, 2025
@licho ok, hear me out: giant butterfly nets attached to weather balloons...
Show threadPedestrianError  Oct 13, 2025
@licho Well, for the apparent majority of the US population that has never learned to read/navigate from a paper map, I'd start there. A lot of folks are going to be very lost as soon as their phone can't give them step by step directions to get anywhere they need to go. On the other hand, they might do less driving cars onto train tracks and claiming not to be responsible for their actions because the computer told them to.
Show threadDuncanOct 13, 2025
@licho we need to yeet Musk and a few others into the sun while we still can
Show threadCelloMom On CarsOct 13, 2025

@licho

When I drive by myself I just look on the (online) map before I go. Then if I take a wrong turn and get lost, I stop and look again. And sometimes if I get lost I find some unexpected and cool things.

But the weather and climate data will suffer (and we will suffer for missing that).

Show threadChris JohnsonOct 13, 2025
@licho That sounds bad. Very bad in the case of greatly reduced weather data in age of rapidly changing climate and intensifying weather.
Show threadCyOct 13, 2025
...nothing? I don't use space for anything. Not TV, not GPS, not shipping, or travel. I don't even go stargazing, never lived far from a city full of street lights. Weather reports will be bad, I guess.

The space age ended with Reagan anyway, who privatized fucking everything and slashed government programs like NASA into oblivion. It's not cool anymore. It's just rich people launching rockets for their own good.

Also I don't get to have children, or grand children, and in my old age I'll just be all alone, so thanks for reminding me of that.
Show threadLichoOct 13, 2025
@cy sorry. I meant grandchildren metaphorically. Like young people when we are old.
Show threadCyOct 13, 2025
I don't hold it against you. It's a pretty safe assumption that we'll all have grandchildren to tell tales of the old world. I just had unusually low opportunity in my life.

I don't think people normally trust strange old men who just want to talk to their young children, though. Probably safer that you stick with meaning only biological grandchildren.
Show threadDźwiedziuOct 14, 2025

@licho
I'll be using maps and compas on my phone ^_^J

But more seriously I worry about the capitalists “solutions”.

One could be using planes which would add a constant source of pollution and wearing thinner the flight personnel.

Other could be baloons, which would require electricity to make a Hindenburg-to-be or further deplete our helium resources.

Maybe, ***maybe***, if we could get electric semi-glider drones just right, we could plug some of the holes with minimal casualties.

Show threadLichoOct 14
@dzwiedziu I think hydrogen is a viable option in the modern day, with the modern materials. Its like with the early fridges - they were super dangerous. What changed? The core tech haven't. They would have still be super dangerous but we can make them tight now. Imo we should be starting to normalize hydrogen airships. Unmanned at first and when people get easier around them, the tech is verified, we should really go all in.
Show threadDźwiedziuOct 14

@licho
I'm not worried about tech, but of the implementation with an ulterior profit motive.

It's what is getting us into the Kessler mess in the first place.

Show thread‘Tad’ Sander 🍉🌻Oct 14
@licho if only some space genius could have predicted this.