Mastodawn

Prof. Sam Lawler May 10

So, everyone worrying about the Venus probe reentry: yes, it's not designed to burn up in the atmosphere, and that's bad.

But, remember Starlink? There's something like one Starlink per day reentering now, and they weigh more than the Venus probe! SpaceX says they will burn up completely, but now one Starlink piece has been discovered in my province. (And if they don't make it to the ground, that means that half-ton of metal and plastic is deposited in the stratosphere instead. Yum).

Prof. Sam Lawler May 10

More than 7,000 Starlinks in orbit now, and they have permission for 42,000. Even conservatively, at peak operation, they'll dump 25x more aluminum into the stratosphere than falls naturally as they launch and burn up 20-25 sats PER DAY. What will that do? We actually don't know. That metal is already measurable. SpaceX is just running this experiment.

We need fewer satellites in orbit with longer operational lifetimes. THAT is the new engineering challenge in LEO.

Prof. Sam Lawler

LEO sat disposal is a new environmental disaster brewing, mostly because of the actions of a single private company, but really, it's everyone's operating procedure in LEO. Just burn those sats up in Earth's atmosphere when they're done! They just disappear! And if they don't, they probably won't hit anyone anyway.

Ok, this is turning rambly and I'm tired and need to put my goats in the barn. I hope the Venus probe reenters with no injuries, and just to be abundantly clear: fuck Starlink.

Prof. Sam Lawler May 10

P.S. Don't explain reentries or orbits to me.

Prof. Sam Lawler May 10

https://bsky.app/profile/planet4589.bsky.social/post/3lostcdm6qk2v

The probe is down, probably in the ocean.

Also there is no way I'm going to be able to answer all the questions that people have posted in this thread while I was asleep haha...yikes. Glad to see people are interested! I"ll try to answer a few at least. (I'll also be ignoring and likely blocking annoying mansplaining/sealioning)

Jonathan McDowell (@planet4589.bsky.social)

ESA reports K482SA reentered between 0604 UITC (seen by radar on pass over Europe) and 0732 UTC (not seen by European radars on the next orbit). Roskosmos reports that reentry was at 0624 UTC over the Indian Ocean, but with no details on how they conclude that.

Bluesky Social

Ben Royce 🇺🇦May 10

Pino Carafa May 10

@benroyce @sundogplanets YeAh BuT bUt BuTbUt DiD ShE rEaD iT? 🤪

elala@nrw.social May 10

@rozeboosje
😂
@benroyce @sundogplanets

ferricoxide May 10

@benroyce @sundogplanets

"Et Al" is my SO.

Joan't Stop Me Now 🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️😷May 10

@benroyce @sundogplanets I think that was my absolute favourite tweet of all time. 💥

* pours one out *

fritzoids May 10

you might enjoy this: https://youtube.com/shorts/x9b_eTtKRS4

Before you continue to YouTube

Ben Royce 🇺🇦May 10

@fritzoids the audacity 😆

EndicottRoad59 May 10

@benroyce 😆 @sundogplanets

Longspeak May 10

@benroyce @sundogplanets "This is your place sir. Get in it."

🏴‍☠️May 16

@benroyce @sundogplanets
Boom!

@sundogplanets
Thanks for the update! I'm sure the media will get right on reporting this. 🙄
I hope no ocean residents were harmed.

Jennifer May 10

@sundogplanets I'm glad it didn't land on someone's house!!

Warren Currie 🦠🦐May 10

@sundogplanets it not only surprised me to read that there was such a range in when the rogue space probe would actually reenter the atmosphere, but also that with all of the tracking we have available, it seems like it was just, woops!, missed it 🤔.

Joe Dyrt May 10

@DrPlanktonguy @sundogplanets All will NOT be revealed!

Matthew Newell May 10

@sundogplanets "The Kosmos 482 probe, a relic from the first Space Race, crashed harmlessly into the Indian Ocean west of Jakarta, Indonesia at 2:24 a.m. EDT (6:24 a.m. GMT), the Russian space agency Roscosmos announced on Telegram. No damage or injuries have been reported, and it remains unclear whether the lander reached the ocean in one piece."

https://www.livescience.com/space/space-exploration/soviet-spacecraft-kosmos-482-crashes-back-to-earth-disappearing-into-indian-ocean-after-53-years-in-orbit

Soviet spacecraft Kosmos 482 crashes back to Earth, disappearing into Indian Ocean after 53 years in orbit

The failed Soviet spacecraft Kosmos 482 has finally returned to Earth after 53 years in orbit. It disappeared into the Indian Ocean early Saturday morning.

Live Science

Anyia, hazardous 🏳️‍⚧️🏳️‍🌈May 10

@sundogplanets orbits is what your dog does when it's trying to get the goats to reenter the barn, right?

your auntifa liza 🇵🇷 🦛 🦦May 10

🗣 LOUDER FOR THE PEOPLE IN THE BACK!!!

Ben Royce 🇺🇦May 10

@blogdiva @sundogplanets

TanekRune May 10

@benroyce @blogdiva @sundogplanets
It occurs to me that a number of people - young men especially - were told they can say anything if they sound confident enough.

@sundogplanets
God I spent hours ranting about this to anyone who would listen back when starlink started talking about putting these up, because holy shit unearned faith in 'they will burn up safely '

I still can't believe that this is where things went...

Cat West May 10

@sundogplanets great picture. I feel so calm just looking at it.

@sundogplanets I came for the Starlink toots but have been distracted by the goats and dog. Is the dog a Pyrénéen?

Prof. Sam Lawler May 10

@ElHadjiMurad One of our livestock guardian dogs is a Pyrenees mix, one is an Anatolian shepherd mix

@sundogplanets Lovely! LGDs are such amazing animals. We have a Traditional Spanish Mastif, though, so I'm a bit biased...

Prof. Sam Lawler May 10

@ElHadjiMurad Cutie!!

@sundogplanets Thanks, he's very good at posing for photos, as evidenced here..!

Prof. Sam Lawler May 11

@ElHadjiMurad Thank you for sharing!

The Sleight Doctor 🃏May 10

@sundogplanets
It's difficult to distinguish between someone innocently agreeing - and expanding or underlining - and someone arrogantly mansplaining online, eh?

I try to roll with words to the effect of, "I realise *you* know this already, but for others reading..." (or words to that effect).

It must be especially annoying when you spent several years studying a subject and Joe Shmo is up in your comments telling you something you learned in 101. 🙄

@ApostateEnglishman @sundogplanets

Sometimes I run into "I didn't understand this aspect of the post, so I did some reading up on it, and here's what I learned, just in case someone else is also confused."

Like, I'm not mansplaining. It's something that I feel like the author (who is clearly conversant with it better than myself) simply didn't explain well enough, and that OTHER people may have been as confused as I was.

Sometimes, experts are just over-familiar.

https://xkcd.com/2501/

Average Familiarity

xkcd

Prof. Sam Lawler May 11

@rbos @ApostateEnglishman Thank you for this perspective. I'll admit that as a woman in science, I deal with this kind of microaggression all the time so I'm hypersensitive to it. I realize some people mean well, but WOW it can be incredibly infuriating when someone tries to explain a topic to you that they read a Wikipedia article about, when you are one of the top experts in the world on said topic....

@sundogplanets
Yeah, makes sense. And NGL, I have been known to do it. :(
@ApostateEnglishman

It's like the microaggression of "agreeing with you." It's totally something sexists do, agreeing with a woman in a condescending way. There will always be innocuous behaviors that are hard to distinguish from the passive aggression, since the aggressors are trying to mimick the innocuous behavior as a sort of camoflage. So you snap at someone who wasn't even trying to get under your skin, and it's a sad time for all involved.

(An appropriate response to this post if you know all about what I'm saying is "Did you think that up all by yourself? Good for you, Cy!" because I'm a big boy and I'm proud of saying the smart words, and any bigot getting that response will seethe with rage.)

CC: @rbos@mastodon.novylen.net @ApostateEnglishman@mastodon.world

@sundogplanets I need to turn your posts into a story!! I kind of want to write something about this whole thing.

Michael Gemar May 10

@sundogplanets Sadly I think Starlink in only the first, and perhaps will not be the worst. For example, there are multiple huge 10K+ constellations planned out of China. SpaceX has set the precedent, and I think others are going to follow.

scy 🔜 WHY May 10

@sundogplanets Well good thing Amazon now has their own satellite internet project, so the results of Starlink's experiment can be independently verified! 😬

Jean-Baptiste "JBQ" Quéru May 10

@scy Look what you've done, now I need to clean the sarcasm from my screen!

Robert Lowe Barnett May 10

@jbqueru @scy
Don't worry, sarcasm just disappears on its own upon re-entry

Bruce Heerssen May 10

@scy @sundogplanets
Atmosphere schmatmosphere. Who cares! It's only the air we breathe, and there's money to be made!

teledyn 𓂀 May 10

Also, since mean time to failure is on the order of five years, all these tens of thousands launched now will shower down more or less together; the metals load isn't spread out, it will happen in surges.

I predict a 2030 fashion trend of jewelry made from space junk. Oh, and this tune playing at the grocers

https://youtu.be/Z2dcVIEQwEE?si=FQnH0jnXTWkoIXtL

Space Junk (2009 Remaster)

YouTube

@sundogplanets I am legitimately concerned about the fact we're performing completely and utterly uncontained and uncontrolled incineration of tons of heavy metals in the stratosphere every single day.

On that note go and enjoy time outdoors - pat the goats and enjoy the little rascals :)

Mx Verda May 10

@Syulang @sundogplanets but maybe wear a metal hat or smth

Michael Graaf May 10

@sundogplanets Is there a special harmfulness when the metal (mostly aluminium) burns in the upper atmosphere, as opposed to lower down? I ask because the solid fuel commonly used in first-stage boosters, is largely aluminium powder, and that outweighs the payloads by orders of magnitude.

Magiilaro May 10

@michaelgraaf
It has the potential to destroy the ozone layer and to weaken the magnetic field.
And maybe more, we just don't know.

https://youtu.be/XFLpKjuie48
@sundogplanets

Four Starlink Satellites Fell From The Sky Each Day, Creating New Worries

YouTube

Benjamin Sonntag-King May 10

@michaelgraaf @sundogplanets I read an article last year in the Guardian about it... and just discovered they did another one ;)
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2025/may/01/dying-satellites-can-drive-climate-change-and-ozone-depletion-study-finds

The climate consequences of the deposit of aluminum at high altitude are unknown because it is too complex to model surely, but it could be disastrous

Dying satellites can drive climate change and ozone depletion, study finds

Aluminium emissions from satellites as they fall to Earth and burn up is becoming more significant as their numbers soar

The Guardian

Osma A 🇫🇮🇺🇦May 10

First stage boosters burn aluminum and ammonium perchlorate. Of the byproducts, the alumina is nonreactive and not a big deal, but the hydrochloric acid is both corrosive down low, and a significant harm to ozone up high.
@michaelgraaf @sundogplanets

Osma A 🇫🇮🇺🇦May 10

I've only seen one new research paper on the subject of satellite deorbiting since I wrote this, and it didn't have any new information on effects of alumina. The citations it does have refer to solid rocket booster pollution.
https://osma.medium.com/ozone-satellites-and-climate-change-5d557cfc758b
@michaelgraaf @sundogplanets

Ozone, satellites, and climate change - Osma Ahvenlampi - Medium

A while ago, someone got really angry at me for calling BS on a claim that satellites cause ozone depletion. Crazy, right? But it led me down a rabbit hole, which I’ll summarize here. This should…

Medium

Prof. Sam Lawler May 10

@osma @michaelgraaf You saw these two, right? https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2024GeoRL..5109280F/abstract

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2313374120

Potential Ozone Depletion From Satellite Demise During Atmospheric Reentry in the Era of Mega-Constellations

Large constellations of small satellites will significantly increase the number of objects orbiting the Earth. Satellites burn up at the end of service life during reentry, generating aluminum oxides as the main byproduct. These are known catalysts for chlorine activation that depletes ozone in the stratosphere. We present the first atomic-scale molecular dynamics simulation study to resolve the oxidation process of the satellite's aluminum structure during mesospheric reentry, and investigate the ozone depletion potential from aluminum oxides. We find that the demise of a typical 250-kg satellite can generate around 30 kg of aluminum oxide nanoparticles, which may endure for decades in the atmosphere. Aluminum oxide compounds generated by the entire population of satellites reentering the atmosphere in 2022 are estimated at around 17 metric tons. Reentry scenarios involving mega-constellations point to over 360 metric tons of aluminum oxide compounds per year, which can lead to significant ozone depletion.

ADS

Osma A 🇫🇮🇺🇦May 10

Yes. The first makes the unsupported claim that "[aluminum oxides] are known catalysts for chlorine activation" incorrectly citing the SRB research. The second I reference in my post.

Aluminum oxide doesn't activate chlorine. Ammonium perchlorate does. SRB, not satellite. Basic chemistry.
@sundogplanets @michaelgraaf

The problem is that there is a non-zero chance, the aluminium oxide of the satellites launched now will fuck up the ozone layer in a couple of decades.

I guess, the first stage boosters aren't that big of a problem in that sense, but I don't know until which altitude they're burning.

Prof. Sam Lawler May 10

@mina @michaelgraaf Good review of all the effects (might be paywalled?) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-022-01001-5

Atmospheric impacts of the space industry require oversight - Nature Geoscience

Rocket emissions and debris from spacecraft falling out of orbit are having increasingly detrimental effects on global atmospheric chemistry. Improved monitoring and regulation are urgently needed to create an environmentally sustainable space industry.

Nature

Camille Bacon-Smith May 10

@sundogplanets you are my hero! Partly for fighting the fight against space junk, and partly because you have goats.

Duncan Bayne May 10

@sundogplanets "I'm tired and need to put my goats in the barn"

Even when I disagree with opinions on Mastodon, I still love Mastodon, and the people on it :)