Welp sure enough, looking over my stock watch list the smallest stock drop is 4% down, the largest drops I'm seeing around 9%+ down.

They got stalwarts of the stock market doing cryptocurrency sized moves out here. I don't see any well known company showing gains today.

Lots of falling knives out there. The markets are probably going to take a few days to find the bottom as international markets wake up and also sell off tomorrow.

#stocks #trumptarrifs

Lordy, there's a luxury furniture company who manufactures in China, their stock is down 40%. The CEO was on a public call when he got the news 🥴

The Trump tariffs are 34% on goods from China.

Welcome to Null's econometrics 300 tonight's essay question: "Will RHs stock fall by the same amount or more? Explain your answer."

One to pages double spaced. It will be 5% of your grade this quarter.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/oh-sh-rh-ceo-reacts-live-to-stock-tanking-on-tariffs-poor-earnings.html

#rh #china #uspol #trumptariffs #economics

China is coming out swangin'!

- 34% blanket tariff in retaliation with no exemptions
- Blocking rare earth exports critical to the US military
- Banning 11 US companies from China who sold military equipment to Taiwan
- Blocking US medical tech from China to break the US hold on that industry
- Blocking the US' top 5 chicken sellers from selling in China
- Investigating DuPont's China operations for corruption violations

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/04/business/china-trump-tariffs-retaliation.html

#China #USPol #TrumpTariffs #tradewar

So we're seeing a second day of stocks selling off.

Tesla is down another 10% and struggling to find solid support.

Dow DuPont, a normally relatively low volitlatity ticket is down a shocking 20% YoY with most of that happening today on news China will investigate corruption at the firm in retaliation for tariffs.

Oil and gas companies were supposed to be protected by Trump's exemption of oil & gas from tariffs. Chevron is down 12% since the Trump Tariffs despite Trump's favoritism.

#Stocks

One of the dynamics I always find fascinating about the stock market is that investors are extremely good at finding any reason to believe the worst has passed.

So I do expect some of these stocks to recover throughout the month.

However, the stock market also reacts strongly when bad news becomes undeniable. And that point is normally when quarterly reports deliver bad news in black n white.

I expect a second significant drop in about a month from now when enough horrible qrt reports r due.

Throughout this month I expect consumers will realize inflation is coming back with a vengeance and will make big purchases they would otherwise put off, just so they can catch the lower prices rn.

For companies like furniture seller RH this means they will probably not raise prices too much on existing inventory, and will report strong sales for a month or two while they sell through inventory already in the US.

They'll all kick the terrible sales news can down the road till May / June

So if you see retailers claiming "strong April sales" or "limited impact from the tariffs", take it with a Donald Trump sized grain of salt maybe.

They will all be slumping.

Also don't buy the hype if Trump reduces our tariffs, the world literally considers this a problem as big as the invasion of Ukraine or the economic blow of COVID lockdowns.

They are gonna make us regret this and the risk will persist until Republicans are out of power.

Fundamentally we're now in a rapidly evolving situation. Most businesses and stock analyst likely have no clue what the impact of such a large macro change will be.

Even worse, countries all over the world are -just- beginning to react and will take days and weeks to decide how to respond, so things may get much worse for any given company at anytime.

By the time an analyst figures out the impacts for a company the numbers will be wrong, type of situation.